Unknown donks river

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is a total unknown

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $15.61 (156.1 bb)
SB: $26.21 (262.1 bb)
BB: $5 (50 bb)
UTG: $10.56 (105.6 bb)
Hero (MP): $17.12 (171.2 bb)
CO: $10.08 (100.8 bb)

Preflop: Hero is MP with 9 8
UTG folds, Hero raises to $0.30, 3 folds, BB calls $0.20

Flop: ($0.65) T 3 K (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.40, BB calls $0.40

Turn: ($1.45) 8 (2 players)
BB checks, Hero bets $0.80, BB calls $0.80

River: ($3.05) 4 (2 players)
BB bets $2.60

[Carroters]

Definitely calling river. Would like it more if he was definitely a fish but he's probably a fish any way with this line and yeah why the hell does he just bomb Kx here after c/c 2. Polarised with loads of air in his range = call with any bluff catcher. Don't really love the turn bet, I'd usually just check back and bluff catch blank rivers, folding non blank ones.

[WeldPhaser]

Definitely calling river. Would like it more if he was definitely a fish but he's probably a fish any way with this line and yeah why the hell does he just bomb Kx here after c/c 2. Polarised with loads of air in his range = call with any bluff catcher. Don't really love the turn bet, I'd usually just check back and bluff catch blank rivers, folding non blank ones.

Carrots in ur exp what do villains takking this line have???

[Carroters]

Carrots in ur exp what do villains takking this line have???

They are usually just fish with busto draws IMO. Like this is by far the hand that makes the most sense. The thing is here, the combinations of busto draws outweigh the combinations of 2 pair+ like ridiculously. If it's a good assumption to say this is hardly ever a random K or T which I think it is, then he doesn't even need to be bluffing with missed draws all that often for us to be able to snap anything with this much SD value.

I think I'd want to be calling wider than the 64% of our range game theory would advocate just because regs hardly ever take this line for value with anything on this board and fish are going to be heavily skewed towards air here due to combinations and this being pretty polarising. You'll also see this line from an aggro fish far more than you will from any other player type, therefore the chances of villain being an aggro fish here go way up.

I think we should just call with stuff that beats A high and fold the rest. Whatever % of our range that happens to be, it has to be good IMO based on the above reasoning.

Pre-emptive defence: I don't think this is a massive over adjustment or anything as the combos are so massively heaped towards bricked draws and we have plenty of those we'll be folding ourselves so calling anything with SD value shouldn't equate to calling a huge amount of our range, just most of it, which is what game theory wants here anyway.

[BorisTheSpider]

Yeah, thanks - it confirms what I thought about the turn being bad.

[griffey24]

I would check back turn and likely call a river lead on this run out.

As played meh I don't see this line too often, so I'm not sure. Obv all draws in life brick which makes me want to call. His sizing is also inconsistent with how rest of hand played out.

[abelardx]

This is a spot where a read would help a lot. If villain is a fish, then the river donk is strong, something like K4 or 44. If villain is a 'tag', this is usually a missed draw.

I like checking back the turn. We suddenly got some showdown value but we want a small pot, and the 8 is not a scare card for hands that call the flop.

[Micro2Macro]

another one of those spots where we use game theory to avoid making mistakes and profit off villains.

[WillburForce]

Yo Boris, you're UK. Why you playing at Stars??? Get your arse over to some Eurosites for cash games. The level of play there is so much worse.

[eugmac]

OMG stars 5nl or 10nl isn't hard guys.

[Carroters]

OMG stars 5nl or 10nl isn't hard guys.

No money stars 5NL pros.

[ISillyDurrrAK]

looks like the villain is a fish and puts his last chips in the pot, I'd fold vs unknown