Nut bluffcatcher on the river - he looks serious though...

[BorisTheSpider]

UTG is a complete unknown, but is sitting short, so unless he's a shortstacker, he's a fish. In the context of the hand, these lead to quite different reads on what he could have here - if he's a fish, he has the nuts. If he's a shortstacker, he likely has a draw or like AT/JJ etc.

I probably have to call the river, since I don't quite have the implied odds to draw to just the flush on the turn so I'm calling assuming that at least an A and probably a Q are good too.


Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $15.57 (155.7 bb)
SB: $10 (100 bb)
BB: $16.72 (167.2 bb)
UTG: $7.73 (77.3 bb)
MP: $15.35 (153.5 bb)
Hero (CO): $10.91 (109.1 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with A Q
UTG raises to $0.30, MP folds, Hero calls $0.30, BTN folds, SB calls $0.25, BB folds

Flop: ($1) 5 T 8 (3 players)
SB checks, UTG bets $0.70, Hero calls $0.70, SB folds

Turn: ($2.40) 7 (2 players)
UTG bets $2.30, Hero calls $2.30

River: ($7.00) Q (2 players)
UTG bets $4.43

[abelardx]

When this happened to me the other day he had the flush all the way. I think a worse one pair slows up at some point. I think flop is fine, not sure about calling the turn.

[BorisTheSpider]

When this happened to me the other day he had the flush all the way. I think a worse one pair slows up at some point. I think flop is fine, not sure about calling the turn.

Yeah, if he flopped the flush, I just put that down to a cooler it's gonna happen so rarely.

I'm not so sure about the turn call either, I feel like it's kinda loose, but I am getting 5:1 implied odds and I have 26% equity against JJ+ and 25% against [TT+,88,55,JTs,T9s,98s,87s,76s]. Give him ATs as well and it's like 26% that I have.

If he rage shoves the river with the entire range I'm flipping on the river. If he only shoves the sets, flop overpairs and ATs I still have 32% equity OTR and need 27% so I think I have to call.

[Cobra_1878]

Raise flop.

Fold turn as played.

[BorisTheSpider]

Raise flop.

Either way, whether he's a shortstacker or a fish, that's fairly likely to get you jammed on.

[caddie444]

Either way, whether he's a shortstacker or a fish, that's fairly likely to get you jammed on.

What's better? Having to call flop and fold a ton of turns to further action and not get value when an obvious 4th club hits or take our decent equity (plus even a little fold equity) and just raise and gamble if he shoves?

[BorisTheSpider]

What's better? Having to call flop and fold a ton of turns to further action and not get value when an obvious 4th club hits or take our decent equity (plus even a little fold equity) and just raise and gamble if he shoves?

Yeah, having looked at it again, I do like raising the flop - sorry cobra, didn't mean to be a dick.

I think, when I came back to the thread, I had forgotten how good our draw is.

If we raise flop to 25bb and he jams we have 49bb to call into 116bb, so we need 30% equity.

We have 35% against [QQ+,TT,88,55,KcQc,KcJc,QcJc,Jc9c] and I actually think, given my read that he's either fishy or a shortstacker, he can probably jam worse than that sometimes.

I like a raise.

100bb deep it's a little more marginal, with me needing 35% equity (so I break even if I've got his jamming range right) but the fold equity probably makes it good still.