AKs gets cold 4bet by straightforward looking reg

[BorisTheSpider]

SB is 24/17, so not particularly tight, but importantly hasn't 3bet or 4bet once yet (79 hands, 22 opportunities to 3bet).

Three factors other than this make me want to fold:

1. The HJ is a big drooler (55/19) and if SB knows it, he's not likely to be expecting folds.

2. The SB has sized such that I can't close the action, because the HJ will (and does) shove for his remaining 2.5bb. Whether this is accidental or not is obviously impossible to say, but in any case is does prevent me calling without the risk that the SB repops it again.

3. SB and I are 185bb deep together. Even if I flat and the SB doesn't repop it, the SPR is going to be about 2, so I'm probably going to have to stack off on the flop with anything half decent.

Am I being too nitty, or do you like a fold?

Poker Stars, $0.05/$0.10 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

Hero (BTN): $19.25 (192.5 bb)
SB: $18.68 (186.8 bb)
BB: $8.29 (82.9 bb)
UTG: $10.42 (104.2 bb)
MP: $2.75 (27.5 bb)
CO: $10.02 (100.2 bb)

Preflop: Hero is BTN with K A
UTG folds, MP raises to $0.30, CO folds, Hero raises to $0.90, SB raises to $2.50, BB folds, MP raises to $2.75 and is all-in

[caddie444]

Have you tried some range/equity calculations based on what you think he could have and what he will do with his range if you call or 5 bet?

Try it out and we'll help you along the way.

[kickass]

The sb cant "repop it"

[BorisTheSpider]

The sb cant "repop it"

Ok, did wonder about this after the hand, but assumed he could - so if someone shoves and because they are short it's less than a minraise, does that then not reopen it for the SB? I take it that it does reopen it if the HJ shoved for more than a minraise, like if he shoves $6 here?

[Savy]

Different places use different rules. I'm pretty sure it's got to be more than a half pot raise on stars but that could be horribly wrong. I only learnt about this a few weeks ago. Will be easy enough to find if you google it though.

[BorisTheSpider]

Have you tried some range/equity calculations based on what you think he could have and what he will do with his range if you call or 5 bet?

Try it out and we'll help you along the way.

OK, so I'll give him a range of [KK+, AKs, AKo, A5s-A2s] for cold 4betting which is 18 value combos and 12 bluffs. I have 53% vs that range. The pot is $6.25 when the action gets to me. If I 5bet to $7 it makes it $4.25 to the SB and the pot is now $12.25. We have $11.68 behind if I 5bet to $7.

0.4 * 6.25 + 0.6 * [0.4 * 23.93 - 0.6 * 11.68] = $2.50 + 0.6 * [9.57 - 7.00] = $4.04 in EV

If I 5bet-call, I'm calling $11.68 into $23.93 getting a bit more than 2:1 so I need 33% equity, and I have 40% vs. [AK, KK+]

So yeah, folding seems terrible.

Given that I'm never folding if I 5bet, jamming might be better and give me a bit more FE if he'll fold some AK this deep.

Any thoughts on the range I've given him? Too polarised? Likely he 4bet-calls wider given positions?

As for calling, I probably like calling best because it keeps the air in his range and he might bluff at Axx or Kxx - the SPR is going to be pretty low, but I do have position, so if I'd thought that the HJ shoving didn't reopen the action, I like a call. Also, if I call, the SPR is low enough that SB might feel like he can't fold a weak ace on Axx. OTOH, my hand needs to see 5 cards to realise it's equity, so I'm not delighted about calling - it might be horrible, I'm interested to see what everyone thinks.

[BorisTheSpider]

From Roberts Rules of Poker (I might email pokerstars to clarify exactly if this is what they apply):


A player who has already acted and is not facing a fullsize wager may not subsequently raise an all-in bet that is less than the minimum bet or less than the full size of the last bet or raise.

So it looks like it has to be a minraise to reopen the action.

[caddie444]

You did a lot of good work in your response! So, after your work, what do you think should be the standard in this spot VS AN UNKNOWN?

Think about your assumptions on having Fold Equity if he has AK if you shove (do you really expect an unknown to fold to a shove with AK after he 4bets?)

In this case you just have to look at which option is the lesser of (3?) evils (jamming/calling/folding) given that he is practically unknown.

It's true that a hand like AK has to see all 5 cards to realize it's equity, but your hand is suited, you have position, you are deepish, and you can generally expect villain to play straightforward oop in a 4bet pot.

[The Bean Counter]

This is almost always QQ+ from this guy and maybe AK, especially when mp is so short (although suspect villain hasn't spotted this when cold 4betting).

Assuming the sizing was an error and he hasn't spotted the short stack, I really doubt this guy is good enough to think about his image and think about your range in that spot and more than likely thinks "omg I has kings/aces, I raise".

So it looks like it has to be a minraise to reopen the action.

Yeah, that's the way Stars do it.