50NL Zoom FR - Yes I am a nit

[caddie444]

Villain is playing 16/12 with an ~80% fold to 3bet.

When he calls my raise pre, he has a pretty tight range. When I bet flop and he calls, I actually think I am beat most of the time. I mean I feel like he is not calling with 1010-QQ. He could still have AK.

So what's the turn plan? I'm not so sure about my bet sizing on the flop, maybe I should have bet less to keep his underpairs in, plus it's such a dry board. What do you guys think of a 1/3 pot cbet here?

As played, what is turn plan?



PokerStars Zoom No-Limit Hold'em, $0.50 BB (9 handed) - PokerStars Converter Tool from http://poker-tools.flopturnriver.com/Hand-Converter.php

Button ($100.58)
SB ($34.47)
Hero (BB) ($87.97)
UTG ($82.33)
UTG+1 ($51.84)
MP1 ($88.52)
MP2 ($68.93)
MP3 ($71.13)
CO ($46.01)

Preflop: Hero is BB with A, A
5 folds, CO raises to $1.25, 2 folds, Hero raises to $5, CO calls $3.75

Flop: ($10.25) 9, 4, K (2 players)
Hero bets $6.50, CO calls $6.50

Turn: ($23.25) 6 (2 players)
Hero???

[rpm]

my plan would be to continue bet/folding whatever size i imagine i would use with any bluffs i might have on this board for three streets. i haven't played FR (or poker) for ages, but surely we can have villain call at least the turn with a decent chunk of {TT-QQ,AK,KQs}. i mean we are only behind 6-12 combos depending how much you want to discount KK/66, due to flatting pre (KK) and calling our flop CB (66). so he only needs like {AK,JJ} (12 combos), as far as worse hands go, in his continuing range for the value bet to be +EV at least on this street.

also, i agree we can go smaller on such a dry flop in a 3bp. doing so, i imagine, would mean we can value bet a wider range for three streets. and we obv get away with cheaper bluffs the times we don't got it.

take all this with a grain of salt for obvious reasons

[griffey24]

This is the easiest board to go 4.50 / 12 / shove you're gonna get.

[BorisTheSpider]

Villain is playing 16/12 with an ~80% fold to 3bet.

When he calls my raise pre, he has a pretty tight range. When I bet flop and he calls, I actually think I am beat most of the time. I mean I feel like he is not calling with 1010-QQ. He could still have AK.

I agree mostly, although I do think perhaps he peels the flop with QQ then folds the turn, that's if he can even have QQ with those stats.

I think b/f turn then c/f river is best. I can't see this guy ever doing anything with AK on the river other than checking it back. He can have 3 combos of KK and 6 combos of AK, so if we get to the river and shove, then that shove is 0EV if he calls with half his AK - if he calls with less, it's bad. Is a 16/12 who folds 80% to 3bets calling 3 streets more than half the time with TPTK in a 3bet pot? I doubt it.

Conversely, if we bet the turn $12 the river pot is $47.25 and the stacks are $22.51 so we've got to be good 25% of the time to call if we check the river and he shoves. So assuming he always shoves KK he needs to shove 1/6 of the time he has AK. Doing the maths there makes me realise he doesn't have to bluff very often at all, but I just don't think he's turning AK into a bluff ever, especially not if he has less than a half pot shove left to do it with, so I think if we check the river and he shoves, we can comfortably fold.

I'm not sure I like smaller on the flop - if you go smaller, you can't have as many bluffs, and this flop is one you're going to want to bluff at a reasonable bit.

[The Bean Counter]

Getting this in on such a dry board without question. If he has 99 or the K pairs then it's a cooler as there are far more combos of Kx and TT-QQ in his range that hopefully can't find a fold. I think we have a problem if we aren't barrelling AA/AK on this board too.

I've not played FR in a while, but for villain to fold most of his calling range on the flop seems insanely nitty.

[abelardx]

I agree with BC. Try to get it in.

He folds 80% to a 3bet. He probably opens 15-25% on the co and folds almost all of that. BTW love the 3bet size. The only set he could have here is KK and he might 4bet that. When he continues he'll have AK, KQ, maybe exclusively. Probably you'll get one street from JJ or QQ. But he probably can't find a fold with AK and could possibly raise it at some point. So I'd barrel and bet/call or bet/gii if raised.

There's no use planning the extraction around his weak hands. You'll never get that much from them. Plan the extraction around the hand he most likely continues with which is AK and barrel all-in.

[kickass]

this thread makes me sad

[caddie444]

this thread makes me sad

To cheer you up

[Pelion]

When I bet flop and he calls, I actually think I am beat most of the time.

Wow really? People are folding AK/KQ on this flop at FR? If FR really is that nitty, then you should be PFR/3betting anything suited and remotely connected and just barrelling off with any draws and printing money with fold equity. I think its more likely they'll call the flop with worse though.

[Carroters]

FR is a sad

[griffey24]

This is less than 100bb, CO vs BB. This shouldn't be a discussion.

200bb stacks sure maybe. EP vs blinds, sure maybe. But not this situation and with these stacks. Easy triple.