[25NL-Z] 99 overpair + OESD in 3bet pot

[Pelion]

Villain is an aggro TAG and will probably often shove overs+FDs and maybe overs+gutshots. Does he have draws often enough to call?

Poker Stars, $0.10/$0.25 No Limit Hold'em Cash, 6 Players
Poker Tools Powered By Holdem Manager - The Ultimate Poker Software Suite.

BTN: $26.90 (107.6 bb)
SB: $25 (100 bb)
BB: $43.96 (175.8 bb)
UTG: $25.52 (102.1 bb)
MP: $25.10 (100.4 bb)
Hero (CO): $25 (100 bb)

Preflop: Hero is CO with 9 9
2 folds, Hero raises to $0.75, BTN calls $0.75, SB raises to $3.50, BB folds, Hero calls $2.75, BTN folds

Flop: ($8) 8 7 2 (2 players)
SB bets $4.80, Hero calls $4.80

Turn: ($17.60) 6 (2 players)
SB bets $16.70 and is all-in, Hero ?

[Savy]

no?

[abelardx]

There are 30 overpairs that beat yours and he'd play them all this way.

There are roughly 30 combos of sc, sg, s'ace, and s'broadway he might have, but he probably doesn't 3bet all of those. So say 15. Throw in the occasional bluff and I think it's OK to call.

[BorisTheSpider]

equity win tie pots won pots tied
Hand 0: 33.532% 33.12% 00.41% 889 11.00 { 9c9h }
Hand 1: 66.468% 66.06% 00.41% 1773 11.00 { TT+, 88-77, AcKc, AcQc, AcJc, AcTc, Ac6c, Ac5c, Ac4c, Ac3c, Ac2c, T9s, 98s, 87s, 76s, 65s, 54s }


If you can't be a massive station once in a while, what can you do?

[Pelion]

Yeah, I think best case is probably breakeven here, and chances are he isn't shoving every possible draw. I think we can fold this.

[kickass]

Is this villains usual 3b size?

[caddie444]

Helpful would be stats, what's his 3bet %? It's really hard to give advice without more info. Without more info pre flop is likely a fold.

As played fold

[Pelion]

I don't have enough hands for stats to really be meaningful, but he looks TAG so far. 25/25 with 14% 3bet after 12 hands.

Sizing looks pretty standard given he is OOP 3-way. I don't see how preflop can ever be a fold after opening in the CO.

Agree that turn looks like a fold. I think it's probably just about a breakeven call against someone very aggro, but losing against the majority of regs.

[caddie444]

I don't see how preflop can ever be a fold after opening in the CO.

You are getting terrible odds to set mine, and you are going to be in many shitty post flop spots (like this) so without reads/stats/tendencies I always lean towards being conservative until you have a better idea of how he plays.

Think about it, if you're thinking of folding in spots like this, where you still have an overpair plus an OESD and are still unsure of what to do (this is one of the better boards for your hand) how can calling pre flop be good?

[Pelion]

I don't really buy into the "wait for a better spot" logic in cash games. I want to learn to play correctly. If that puts me in some spots where I'm unsure then so be it. Hopefully I can learn from them and get even better at playing correctly.

We have position and are well in the top half of our range. Folding would be highly exploitable. I'm calling this every time and learning from it when I make mistakes.

[Savy]

If something is actually very close (I dunno if this is or not, I'd side on it not being but I'm nitty and haven't done any real calcs) then calling is always going to be better than folding because we gain so much more information about villain when we do call.

[caddie444]

I don't really buy into the "wait for a better spot" logic in cash games. I want to learn to play correctly. If that puts me in some spots where I'm unsure then so be it. Hopefully I can learn from them and get even better at playing correctly.

We have position and are well in the top half of our range. Folding would be highly exploitable. I'm calling this every time and learning from it when I make mistakes.

The only reason we are unsure is because we don't know what type of player villain is. This is completely different from the " not sure what to do in this spot based on villain's tendencies"


You mentioned you want to learn to play correctly, how can we know what the correct play is here before we have more info?

I also don't think folding pre flop in this situation is exploitable since our hand has pretty static post flop equity vs an unknown. If you're really wanting to play hands vs an unknown IP in a 3bet pot I would personally rather play hands that generally have better post flop equity (ie suited connected cards and Broadways)

[Pascal]

I'd fold pre especially v this sizing

[griffey24]

I'm also pretty meh on calling this for the prospect of outplaying villain with position, when he has initiative.

You rocked a huge board for your hand. You have 99 and managed to keep an overpair into the turn AND have an OESD AND you still don't know what to do facing heat. This shows what kind of crappy position we'll be in most of the time when we're calling pre for anything more than set hunting.

What are villains stats? sq %?