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I hate a 4bet preflop. Neither of them seem like maniacs, I agree that BBs range is capped, but with those stats vs. an EP open he could even be flatting as strong as QQ/AKs here.
If you 4bet to $2.30 you have $8.75 to call into a $14.45 pot if SB jams and BB folds needing 38% equity to break even. You have 38% vs. {QQ+, AKs, AKo} so all you're doing is getting raked unless SB is jamming really wide vs. EP opens.
It's fair to assume SB is 3betting less than 8% OOP vs. an EP open, we'll say 4%, that's {JJ+, AQs+, AQo+}. If you're 4bet "bluffing" to just end the hand now vs. his {QQ, JJ} you're risking $1.95 to win $2.55 so you need them to fold a combined 43% of the time, or an average of 66% of the time each. Let's say because BB is capped here he folds 80% of the time, then you need SB to fold 54% of the time, if he 3bets {JJ+, AQs+, AQo+} then jams with {KK+, AKs} he folds 50% of the time. It's probably optimistic to expect him to ever fold QQ once he's 3bet it vs. an EP open, so we're now getting only 38% folds from SB.
The SB can also flat a 4bet giving the nit $1.20 to call into a $5.70 pot, and enough combined implied odds that he'll come along with his JJ anyway, now we have a $6.90 flop pot with $8.75 behind, and 2/3 of the time we flop ace high.
If we 4bet pre - we need to be able to answer 3 questions:
1. Are we value betting, or are we bluffing
2. If we're value betting, what worse do we expect to get called or raised by
3. If we're bluffing, what better do we expect to fold
I don't think, given stats/reads and positions, we can possibly be value betting, so we must be bluffing. If we're bluffing, unless my range assignments above are way off, it's an exceedingly thin bluff and at best slightly better than breakeven. I think there's much more value in flatting and playing IP.
As played I probably call the river, but I'm not exactly delighted about it.
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[10NL] AKo...3bet pot & multi-way.
K
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Originally Posted by Jay-Z
