DJ Hand Analysis thread

[DJAbacus]

Here is a hand I have reviewed today. I use Flopzilla, Equilab and my current knowledge to see if I could have played the hand differently. If it's ok, I would like to post a hand or two every day in this thread.

iPoker - £0.02 NL (6 max) - Holdem - 6 players
Hand converted by PokerTracker 4

SB: £2.00 (VPIP: 21.82, PFR: 20.00, 3Bet Preflop: 15.79, Hands: 57)
Hero (BB): £4.74
UTG: £1.98 (VPIP: 38.03, PFR: 4.23, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 73)
MP: £4.01 (VPIP: 44.44, PFR: 33.33, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 9)
CO: £2.55 (VPIP: 23.68, PFR: 15.79, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 39)
BTN: £2.08 (VPIP: 21.74, PFR: 17.39, 3Bet Preflop: 0.00, Hands: 48)

SB posts SB £0.01, Hero posts BB £0.02

Pre Flop: (pot: £0.03) Hero has J 8

UTG calls £0.02, fold, fold, fold, fold, Hero checks

Flop: (£0.05, 2 players) 2 J 8
Hero bets £0.03, UTG calls £0.03

Turn: (£0.11, 2 players) 9
Hero bets £0.09, UTG calls £0.09

River: (£0.29, 2 players) T
Hero bets £0.26, fold

I'm OOP. Dry flop. Jxx. Villian UTG 38/4 over 77. Cbet called. I put UTG on 2x Jx 8x so comfortably ahead. The 9c OTT doesn't change much. However the Th now gives UTG 49 straight combos e.g. 3 Q9s, 3 97s. I don't think UTG will call with less than TP so I have about 36% equity and betting 26c (33%) pot odds is marginal but ok.

Thanks for your time reading this post.

[Renton]

River bet is too thin for that size. I would tend to check/fold there or maybe bet like 0.10.

While I appreciate that you're counting combos so precisely, you should understand that the number of combos is meaningless out of the context of his entire range. For example, if someone's entire range is 10 combos, 8 combos is 80% of it, but if his range is any two cards (1225 combos with two known cards), then 8 combos is less than 1% of his range.

[DJAbacus]

Thanks Renton.

After I posted, I added some Axx and Kxx to his range OTR. To my surprise this reduces my equity on the River to 25% as UTG now has 149 straight combos (59% of his calling range OTR). Seems wierd to c/f two pair but that Th really doesn't help me at all. A brick like 4d reduces his straight combos to 19 (22% of his calling range) and my equity goes up to 54% which makes the river bet +EV. This is was the play I thought I was making and completely misunderstood the impact of the Th OTR.

[Keith]

post different hands in different threads , otherwise you'll get to a stage where people don't know which hand is being discussed and differing opinions are easier to discuss rather than being buried amidsta whole heap of other hands .

A 38/3 is gopnna have a lot more hands that he will continue with stuff like AQ AT T9 67 KT KQ

[DJAbacus]

post different hands in different threads , otherwise you'll get to a stage where people don't know which hand is being discussed and differing opinions are easier to discuss rather than being buried amidsta whole heap of other hands .

A 38/3 is gopnna have a lot more hands that he will continue with stuff like AQ AT T9 67 KT KQ

ok thanks keith will post in separate threads. As I mentioned above (we must have posted at the same time), I then realised that a 38/4 would quite likely float A or K high on such a small pot, though that makes the River bet even worse. c/f two pair

[Savy]

I would suggest pot flop, pot turn & either make a tiny bet on the river or x/f.

[Renton]

As you can see, 42% of his range on the river is a straight. You have 47% equity vs his entire range on the river, so there's no way for you to get value from betting. The best you can accomplish by betting is to bet small and hope he just calls and you get a cheap showdown. If he calls with top pair and better, you'll win about 30% of the time. For a value bet to be effective, you need to be good over 50% of the time when called.

[Renton]

Oh also, he's folding almost nothing on the turn so I'd suggest overbetting, maybe 1.5 times the pot.

[MadMojoMonkey]

You're doing awesome by including your thoughts about Villain's range.

Keep it up!

Just remember that Villain's range OTR is not the same as Villain's range PRE.
If Villain would have folded a combo OTT, then they can't have it OTR.
If Villain would have bet a hand OTT, and they checked, then they can't have that hand OTR.

Of course, they can have anything (based on spew), but in general, they follow rules and guidelines.
Once you've got a handle on their guidelines, you play to take advantage of those.

***
Vocabulary:
When you bet OTF, it was not a C-bet.
A C-bet means you are continuing your aggressive line from the previous street.
Since you checked on the previous street, then your bet is just a normal bet, and not a C-bet.
Since Villain limped on the previous street, if you had checked and he had bet, that would still not be a C-bet. Villain did not raise on the previous street, so his bet would just be a normal bet and not a C-bet.

There is not difference to the game, whatever you call it. It's just a vocab thing.

When you bet OTT, most people would not call that a C-bet, even though you were the aggressor OTF, and you are continuing your aggression OTT.
(I don't have a good reason why here, but it seems to be the way it is.)

[DJAbacus]

Wow! Thanks for all your comments. I will try to take these ideas on board.

[Renton]

No, when you're calling a bet, you rely on the amount of money in the pot to sweeten your odds. Thus if you're facing a pot size bet and you think he's bluffing 35%, you can make a barely profitable call.

But value betting doesn't consider the pot. It only considers the value you gain from putting additional money in the pot.

An easy example:

Pretend in this hand you're last to act and he checks to you with £0.29 in the pot. You have two choices with your J8:

1) Check behind and win the pot 47% of the time. Only one outcome of this is easy to calculate.

EV(check) = 0.47* £0.29 = £0.14

2) Bet 0.25 for value and get called 74%. You will win 30% of the time that he calls. This time, there are 3 outcomes.

- he folds 26%

EV(he folds) = (0.26)*£0.29 = £0.075

- he calls 74% and you win 30%

EV(calls, win) = (0.74)*(0.3)*(£0.29 + £0.25) = £0.12

- he calls 74% and you lose 70%

EV(calls, lose) = (0.74)*(0.7)*(-£0.25) = -£0.13

now you just add up all the EV outcomes to get the total EV of betting

EV(bet 0.25) = £0.075 + £0.12 - £0.13 = £0.07


So as you can hopefully see, checking makes twice as much money as value betting.

[spoonitnow]

{{Moved to Small Stakes NL}}

We normally post HHs in the SSNL forum and general questions in the BC.

Thanks.