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 Originally Posted by lonnie
Of course putting your money into the top 20% performers is better than diversification. Now tell me who the top 20% will be....???
Heh, true enough.
 Originally Posted by lonnie
If you are making a one time investment of 5K...sure take a gamble. When you are investing 1-2K a month you're goals tend to change. I can definitely appreciate the "take a shot" aspect of the younger investor. Different risk tolerances and investment amounts will change your investing attitude for sure. Add a wife and kids into the mix and diversification makes more and more sense.
You might take a long hard look at making 10 1-2k gambles a year. if you shop around, and have a good idea of what you're looking for you can pick something reasonable.
say you have 2 abject failures, and loose half thier value. 3 slight losers, 3 slight winners, and 2 that double in value.
10k @ 10% -> 11k
vs
2k @ -50% -> 1000
3 @ -10% -> 3600
3 @ 10% -> 3300
2 @ 200% -> 4000
11900
get a no load spider fund, it's a no brainer, 10% a year, forever. if you realisticly want to beat that, i think you have to be very tricky. after fees and such almost no mutual funds beat it.
i'm just saying if you're willing to spend the time shopping, looking as hard at the market as you do at poker, then i think pretty much anybody can pick a stock that will double, or better.
people seem to be good at buying homes, i think most of that comes from shopping. they look at lots of houses, they consider a zillion factors. most people are very successful with that investment. If people spent that kind of effort on picking stocks, rather than some guy said kinds of tips, they couldn't help but pick some decent companies.
it's like fnords limit guide
 Originally Posted by Fnord
You under-estimate how much of your profit comes from AA,KK,AK
You under-estimate how much of your profit comes from players that suck worse than you and fail to seek them out.
most stock analysts are at jobs. they aren't geniuses. they have worries and concerns. an enthusiastic amature can't beat the best pros. but an enthusiastic amature can get to the top 10%
you do what you think is best, of course. kids and house and everything else is damn scary. if i were in those shoes, i'd invest in a spider. that's what my 401k is. but if i had some money to invest, i'd camp for aces.
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