I'm sorry, but is this happening to me for a reason?

[LeFou]

Synopsis:
yeah, i call a little bet from the SB with AXs. But on the flop I've got four to the nut flush, top pair, and a backdoor straight. $18 to call on a $34 pot.

And I get wiped out. Again.

I need to know -- yes or no -- Am I supposed to fold to a big bet unless it's in the bag? 'Cause I keep hearing advice about making calls on the odds and it'll pay off in the long run, and I keep getting wiped out. Details below. NuWere is me.

Seat 1: checksplayed ($20.40 in chips)
Seat 2: acemanxx ($44.20 in chips)
Seat 3: microterf ($11.45 in chips)
Seat 4: 2AcesHigh ($19.50 in chips)
Seat 5: Making83 ($18.60 in chips)
Seat 7: NuWere ($25 in chips)
Seat 9: olivert ($24.75 in chips)
Seat 10: rulamj ($15 in chips)

ANTES/BLINDS
NuWere posts blind ($0.25).

PRE-FLOP
olivert bets $1, rulamj folds, checksplayed calls $1, acemanxx calls $1, microterf folds, 2AcesHigh folds, Making83 folds, NuWere calls $0.75.

FLOP [board cards JH,2H,AS ]
NuWere bets $6, olivert bets $23.75 and is all-in, checksplayed folds, acemanxx folds, NuWere calls $17.75.

TURN [board cards JH,2H,AS,6D ]


RIVER [board cards JH,2H,AS,6D,4C ]

[LeFou]

based on his early position preflop raise, i put him on a big pair -- kings or queens. Should I have been watching for jacks?

[Fnord]

What exactly is your hand?

[Toasty]

What exactly is your hand?

hehe was thinking that myself, hard to give an answer without it.

[Legendash]

he said he's drawing to the nut flush so it must be Ah Xh

[LeFou]

sorry

Ah4h

[Toasty]

I think this is an easy fold on the flop.

[Humphrind]

sorry

Ah4h

So what did the other guy have?

You missed your flush, but caught 2 pair.

Did he have trips? A bigger 2 pair?

[maxxscam]

he said the other guy had jacks

[johnnyawe]

Sorry dude, but you had a nut flush draw and a top pair that was obviously outkicked. Forget the crap about runner runner straight draw. Do you realize that some people call an inside straight draw a "miracle" straight draw? I don't even know what the nickname is for a runner runner straight draw.

With the other guy betting the way he did, you need to put him on AK, AQ, or AJ. He ended up having JJ, which would have caught me by surprise, but its still an easy fold. With the guy betting like that, you have to figure he had top pair high kicker or better. You were clearly 35% to win and you called a bet that was 400% of the pot.

The call was definitely not in line with the pot odds. Granted, he may have been semi-bluffing a King high flush draw if he was a maniac player, but that is unlikely.

[Humphrind]

Should I have been watching for jacks?

he said the other guy had jacks

Is this were he said it? This is the only place I saw a hint toward what the other guy had.

I wouldn't have put the other guy on Js specifically, but I would have feared the trips. There is no made straight or flush on the board, and he obviously doesn't have the nut flush draw, you do. But this guy is confident in something. He's not short-stacked in a tournament. He's not going to bluff when you already overbet the pot. He pushed all in because he thought you'd call.

I don't even know what the nickname is for a runner runner straight draw.

I don't know is this is official, but I call it a lucky-ass-son-of-a-bitch straight. Same name for runner-runner flush or runner-runner anything.

[Fnord]

I wouldn't lay this down either given the size of the pot relative to amount of money you had left. Tough beat.

[johnnyawe]

One other thing: it was not $18 to call a $34 pot. Nuwhere was only eligible for $28 in the main pot.

So that is calling 64% of the pot.

Right?

[Fnord]

One other thing: it was not $18 to call a $34 pot. Nuwhere was only eligible for $28 in the main pot.

So that is calling 64% of the pot.

Right?

The pot math here is f'd up. The final pot is certainly larger than $34 or some other number is off.

Given the stack sizes, flush+ (in this case with top pair) is a reasonable hand to take to the felt or I have a big leak in my game.

[koolmoe]

One other thing: it was not $18 to call a $34 pot. Nuwhere was only eligible for $28 in the main pot.

So that is calling 64% of the pot.

Right?

NuWere had olivert covered (if only by a quarter), so he was eligible for the entire pot, which was $33.75 before he called the all-in.

[johnnyawe]

phhh.

nevermind. I have no clue what I'm talking about.

Nuwhere: ignore everything I've said.

Except the stuff about the miracle of miracles straight draw.

[michael1123]

JJ vs. A4h with that flop:

JJ had a 69.6% chance to win. This is less than the possibility of a flush coming because of the odds of the board pairing and making a boat.

Lets say you put him on A high kicker instead, though.

AK vs. A4h with that flop:

AK has a 53% chance of winning, A4h has a 45.76% chance, and there's a 1.21% chance for a tie.

Finally, if you put the opponent on top two pair:

AJ wins 64% of the time.

As far as pot odds, by my math you have a $33.75 pot in front of you on the reraise, and have to call $17.75. So you're getting two to one on your money.

If you put them on A high kicker, you have to call. Big winner here. Against AJ its a coinflip in terms of pot odds, and against a set, you're going slightly against pot odds.

But overall, looking at the math, if you don't have a good read on your opponent, and he can have any of the above hands (or maybe worse), then you should call.

[johnnyawe]

Michael, thank you for the correct analysis.