Had a little luck

[Humphrind]

I'm very happy with myself right now. I had some luck at the casino and I am ready to take on the poker room.

I just found out that my casino started offering $100 max buy in NL games (blinds $1 / $2) but I can't yet afford to go, unless I cash out almost all of my online money. Now for another part of the story.

So my wife and I are needing something to do. We decide to watch a movie and watch Owning Mahowny. It's about a gambling addict who embezzels millions from his work and loses it all to gambling. So I turned to my wife and said, "Hmmm, how about we go to the casinos?" SHe agreed and we took off.

We didn't have too much to waste so we only took $40 ($20 each) and went to the nickel slots. I doubled my $20 easily and took my winnings ($40) to the blackjack table. I turned my $40 into $100 and was very pleased with myself. I thought about going straight to the NL HE table, but decided against it. I took my $100 home and sat on it.

But I didn't sit for too long, the next day (Mon) I got bored and took my $100 back to the casino. This time a different casino, but played BJ again. I turned my $100 into $200. WOOO HOOO! All from my original $20. So this Thurs I am going to get in on the $100 NL HE table. I hear it's really crazywith a lot of big raises, but I'll have to see for myself.

As for blackjack, I have a opinion to ask of you. I have a hard 12. The dealer shows a 6 (or 5 or 4) I ran across this a couple of time today and yesterday. I chose to double down. Why double down on a hard 12?

2 things to consider. I have a better chance of hitting any other card than a 10. and the dealer has a good chance to bust. So, by doubling down, I am betting that I won't get a 10 (I am right more than 50% of the time) and I am betting that the dealer will bust (That's what you are betting for when the dealer has a 4-6 anyway) With these 2 things in mind, I feel my doubling down is just a step toward putting more money in the pot when I feel the dealer will bust. Basically increasing what I will win, when I win.

I asked a couple of friends about this strategy. Both said I was crazy and I should stay with a hard 12. I think my strategy is sound. Any other opinions?

But as for the weekend, I as very happy. I made some good cash at the casinos expense, and I am finally going to play casino NL HE.

[lonnie]

Your friends are right.

It is true that you usually won't bust the 12. However, it is also true that the dealer won't always bust the 4,5,6 that they have up.

Play it straight - math and billions of computer generated hands say that it is correct to stay on 12 vs. 4,5,6.

[Toasty]

What he said, the problem with your math is that you not also have to dodge a ten but the dealer also has to bust. I'm not sure if these events even equate to over 50% of the time.

BJ can be broken down to pure EV situations and standing with the 12 is more EV.

[michael1123]

Yeah, I bet that you have a less than a 30% chance of avoiding a ten AND having the dealer go bust. And if its less than that, you're obviously losing money over the long run, even with the rare times that you hit a card that ends up putting you over what the dealer winds up getting.

BJ can be broken down to pure EV situations and standing with the 12 is more EV.

Which is why I don't like blackjack. Any "game" that has an absolutely correct play every single time (with no opinion being necessary) is hardly a game in my opinion. The game is memorizing when you should and shouldn't take a card ... joy.

Where's the challenge in that? Card counting thrown in makes it kind of interesting, but its just more math. I'd gladly play Holdem any day of the week over blackjack.

[fishstick]

i won't echo what everyone else said about doubling down on a hard 12 (because they're right), but i will say "nice" on making some casino cash!

good luck at the NL limit table, and let us know how it went.

[Humphrind]

But when the dealer shows a 4-6 aren't you playing into the fact that he will go bust anyway? That's the only reason to stay with a 12. What's wrong with putting extra money into the pot? It is not a dead-set strategy that I will die by. But it worked for me a few times over the last couple of days. If the dealer showed 4-6 I would double down on anything from 7-12. If I happen to get a 6 or 5 (I don't think it actually happened) I would hit because I have a good chance I will need a 4th card.

After sitting for hours in front of the BJ table, I had a lot of time to think. It just gets a little boring doing what you are supposed to do all the time. I tried to think about what I was doing, and this idea popped into my head. I tried it out, and it seemed to work more times than it didn't But every time I did it, the dealer said, "You're hitting on a hard 12?" One even announced it as if others were going to crowd around in amazement. It was kinda funny. I like being the "eccentric" anything and even if I am totally wrong, it's fun.

And thanks for the congrats Fishy.

[lonnie]

Most casinos require dealers to announce to the floor that there is a double on a hard hand over 11 because it is a very "funny" play. It is to alert the floor supervisor in case there is anything going on - card counting, marked cards, etc.

Doubling 12 will always be a negative play in the long run for you, no matter what the dealer's up card is. Just as you say that there is a good chance that you will not draw the ten, the chance is just as good that the dealer will not have a ten in the hole.

You KNOW for sure that your hand can potentially bust. You do not KNOW for sure that the dealer's hand can bust.

Making that play is probably similar to drawing to an open end straight when there are 4 to a flush on the board.

I've dealt quite a few hands of BJ and have studied card counting, and even done it a little successfully. My advice overall - stay away from blackjack unless you can get an edge using card counting. That's why I play poker now, I don't like to gamble.

[fishstick]

hey humpty!

i'm sure you've seen it before, but here's a link to black jack basic strategy: http://www.blackjack-strategycard.co...ingle_deck.htm

the problems with doubling down on a hard 12 still stand, but i'll throw in a caveat.

if you happen to be card counting, and your count were to go way low (say -10 or lower - indicating the remaining deck is rich in low cards), this might be a positive EV move. it might be an interesting exercise to run a simulation to determine how low the count would have to go to make this a positive EV strategy.

it could be that the dealer thought you were a counter, and that's why he was announcing your move. if they think your counting, they'll sometimes do this when you split tens (which you don't usually do unless you are counting).

[Humphrind]

OK, OK, you've made your point. Doubling down on a hard 12 is not a good move. I'm a big loser and tonight I promise to give myself 50 lashes for ever considering deviating from the standard BJ book.

I still had fun and got to think to myself that I was eccentric and playing "Crazy!" and I was, too crazy.

I do know the book and I play by it. But as michael and I said, sitting doind pre-determined moves for hours on end can get boring. I took a chance, it worked out, but I swear on the Blackjack bible I'll never do it again. Cross my heart and hope to bust.

As for the dealer thinking that I am cheating? Cool. I'm desperate for attention even if it comes from some people in a room off somewhere.

As for card counting in general. I don't do it, but I'm not opposed to it. In Missouri there were a couple of people who were obviously card counting and the casino caught them. They took away their winnings and kicked them out. The guys sued the casino and there is no law against counting cards, so the casino had to give the winnings back.

[fishstick]

OK, OK, you've made your point. Doubling down on a hard 12 is not a good move. I'm a big loser and tonight I promise to give myself 50 lashes for ever considering deviating from the standard BJ book.

dude - you suck! make it 100 lashes! :P

I still had fun and got to think to myself that I was eccentric and playing "Crazy!" and I was, too crazy.

humpty eccentric? that's a reach - NOT! :P

don't you ever let me catch you playing this way again!

the FTR boards - it's all about the love and support.

seriously, my dad, who's made many thousands of dollars playing blackjack both card counting and otherwise, and is a former math professor, is a strong believer in "odd" plays that yield good short-term results.

hey - is your wife going to hit the NL table with you?

[Humphrind]

seriously, my dad, who's made many thousands of dollars playing blackjack both card counting and otherwise, and is a former math professor, is a strong believer in "odd" plays that yield good short-term results.

Yes, finally some support on my strat... Wait, Fishy just said tht his dad sometimes doesn't play by the book. Is that supporting my theory? Who Cares! Close Enough! I WIN!

hey - is your wife going to hit the NL table with you?

I'm not sure. It's funny, I have never asked her. I just assume I know the answer. She's not really comfortable playing more than $.01 / $.02 ring games online. She will play at a ring game at a friends house for $20, but she won't play $5 SnG online. She says she hates getting into tough calls with people she doesn't know and has a tough time reading. She is welcome to come to the casino, I would love the company, as well as having her with me.

Maybe I could ask her tips when I get into a crunch. I at least need her on the other end of the phone.
"Hey hon, I have QJo and he re-raised me. What should I do?" [/i]

[fishstick]

Maybe I could ask her tips when I get into a crunch. I at least need her on the other end of the phone.
"Hey hon, I have QJo and he re-raised me. What should I do?" [/i]

you'll have to come up some "couples code":

mrs humpty: "you never take me out to dinner anymore" really means "i have AK, missed the flop and it's been checked to me, should i make a pot size bet?"

mr humpty: "yeah, with the way your cooking tastes, i should take you out more often!" really means "yes, snookems, take a shot with the semi-bluff."