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Winning Depends on Cards
Do you believe that there is/are certain situations where the optimal strategy is to sit there and wait for cards to come?
I play in a live action low buyin NL tourney, and the only conclusion I can come to about optimal strategy is to play top 5% of hands and play them rough preflop, then ONLY continue betting if it ridiculously clear you're ahead. PLUS go fishing a lot with connectors (viz. nobody raises preflop correctly) and jam when the flop/turn/river connects.
Rationale: 1)The ultimate fish (casino gamblers/slot players) pay absolutely no attention to your table image. You can come in 1 in 20 hands with a massive raise, and they'll still give you action when they're holding J 10 against you AK.
2) They think that every bet is a bluff. For example, flop comes 7 4 7 in an unraised pot, I'm UTG and I check holding QJ, button raises the minimum, I reraise 7 times the minimum (I smell weakness + my first raise of the tournament), and he calls with a 4 in hand.
3) They will chase any draw for any price, even all-in. (It's easy to get action on a pat hand.)
These casino fish are distinct from online fish.
a) Only certain players even know how to bluff. They are easy to spot because they bluff WAY too often, ie they raise 3xBB in just about every pot and then go nuclear at every flop. They pot commit themselves every pot they play, regardless of who else is in the hand.
b) Nobody else ever raises correctly. AA limps preflop about half the time, and I've seen AQs go flop and turn nuclear in an unraised 5 handed flop of 3 7 9!!! I've also seen people go all-in early in a hand thinking a gutshot is good. People just mostly call but never raise.
c) Online fish are the inverse of this - they don't bet their draws, but go nuclear into smallish river pots thinking they will get callers. At B&M, river pots are never small because there always seems to be nuclear betting/fish calling on the flop and turn.
In sum, live action players CALL a lot. Therefore, because their favorite move is to call, my favorite move is to never bluff, and always wait for a strong hand to bet.
Problem: You are at the mercy of luck; cold cards mean no ITM.
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