Operation hit and run

[TheDoc]

Goal: With a bankroll of $300 test the profit expectation of sitting down at a 25 nl holdem table with 6-7$ and going all in preflop with these hands:

Any position: AA-TT, AK, AQs (1 out of 26 hands)
Late position (opening or behind loose limpers): Add 99, 88, AQ, AJ, ATs (1 out of 14 hands)
CO/Button/blinds opening: Add 77, AJ, AT, A9s, KQs (more?)
Behind a "tight" raiser: AA-QQ, (AK only if you're sure you'll be heads-up)
Limp with any pocket pair too small to push with if i can sneak in with a limp. All in post flop if I hit my set.
Play the blinds for cheap, push if I hit top pair and it looks like I have the best hand.

Various notes:
-will play 3-4 tables at a time.
-if i double up i leave the table.
-if i bust i buy in once more, if i bust again i leave and find a new table.

Things I will be tracking:
-$ per table
-$ per hour
-Total $ won
-Total hrs played
-% of times called
-% of times won
-avg. number of callers

Time span of operation:
Approx. 1 month (my winter break from college)

Will update after every session. Any suggestions are welcome.

[Spook]

I'll be keeping my eye on this. I doupt I would care to spend my time doing this, but I'm very interested in how it turns out.

[dar103]

Yeah, I'm pretty skeptical of this as well, but good luck!

[TheDoc]

session one:
-----------
starting br: $300
Total tables played:11
#table at a time:3
Times called:14
Times won:8
Times split:1
Times blinds taken:14
Times all in:28
# of callers:15

Time played: 1hr
Bankroll : 342.33
Session $:+42.33
$/per hr:42.33
$/per table played over the hour:$3.48
avg$per multitables per hour:14.11
$/per called:2.82
$/per win: 5.29

[a500lbgorilla]

ooooOOOOoooo.

-'rilla

[TheDoc]

session two:
-----------
starting br: $342.33
Total tables played:10
#table at a time:3
Times called:15
Times won:10
Times split:1
Times took blinds:16
Times all in:31
# of callers:13
Time played: 1hr
Bankroll :377.53
Session $:35.2
$/per hr:35.2
$/per table: 3.52
avg$per multitable per hour:11.73

Important things i've noted: If you double up leave immediately, do not put your new stack at risk. Also i tend to be dominated every 1/5 times i go all in. Another thing is, about every 2 blinds per 1 hr session provides me with an all in hand post flop that i win. One more thing i made a bad play one hand because i thought i had the best hand on the flop and didnt so that lost me about 7-8$.

[Cocco_Bill]

Very nice results!

I am very interested in how this turns out, but not really interested in doing it myself. For one I enjoy playing proper poker and am also making nice profits the old fashioned way.

I doubt that startegy would be as effective if it became overly popular. As it is now most people I come across with short stacks seem to be making all-ins in desperation rather than as a part of that strategy.

[Ayce]

I've seen people try this strategy at 1$/2$, never successfully as they generally get called only by premium hands and end up being dominated.

[Xianti]

Very interesting experiment.

[gabe]

I just tried this "strategy" for about 45 minutes. I started joining the .05/.10 NL games and starting with $3. Sure enough, 3/4 times someone would call with dominated and I would cash in. The only "scare" I had is when it was AA v 77, he flopped a set, but the river was an ace.

I don't really think this means anything because I think everyone knows this is good for making small amounts of money vs crappy players, but wouldn't work at higher levels (or would it??? hm...)

[TheDoc]

Im fairly confident that with the strat im using i can keep up 25$ and hour earning rate at 3 tables. And well considering my job only pays 7$hr thats not bad at all.

[TheDoc]

session three:
-----------
starting br: $377.53
Total tables played:12
#table at a time:3
Times called:17
Times won:10
Times split:1
Times took blinds:12
Times all in:29
# of callers:20
Time played: 1hr 15 min
Bankroll : 449.07
Session $: +71.54
$/per hr: 57.23
$/per table: 5.96
avg$per multitable per hour: 23.84
$/per called: 3.58
$/per win: 7.15


Important notes: Really good session, could of been better was dominated once the entire time. Gave one bad beat, received 2 bad beats. Had 2 hands in the blind where i doubled after i think a monster flop. Also an observation i had was that some of my plays depending on the action preflop, i would fold some stronger hands if i sensed strength early on, or push with weaker ones if i sensed weakness.. this worked out well. My only real big mistake was pushing on a flop with a mid pocket pair i thought i had the best hand, but guy called me with mid pair that was higher then my pp.

Misc tendencies: im def seeing a pattern with the things mentioned above
2-4 blind hands hit big and i double up about half the time
get about 1-2 bad beats per session
only dominated about 1-2 times per session.

[TheDoc]

also note: would have about 25 $ more had it not been for someone hitting a runner runner straight to my set of jacks in a 3 way pot, and also lost about 15 $ on a hand where i went in on 66's when everyone was weak on the flop, guy called me and hit runner runer 4 card flush to beat me.

[TheDoc]

Shit forgot one more thing, i've noticed my attention span/interest for doing this runs out at about and hour, that's why ive only done 1 hr sessions. This is kind of a good thing, because it gives me a lot of flexability knowing i can get a good amount of sampling done in an hour.

[TheDoc]

session four:
-----------
starting br: $449.07
Total tables played:16
#table at a time: 4
Times called:23
Times won:10
Times split:1
Times took blinds:10
Times all in:34
# of callers:31
Time played: 1hr
Bankroll : 444.52
Session $:-4.55
$/per hr:-4.55
$/per table:-.28
avg$per multitable per hour: -1.13
$/per called: -.15
$/per win: -.46

HORRIBLE SESSION: Started up 25$ in 20 min then took a huge string of bad beats, made the money bad then got more bad beats . towards the latter of the session i made some plays, but i lost maybe 10-15$ tops on those.


bad beats:
runner runner straight (top pair on flop and outkicked him)
runner runner flush(all in aq)
ak(me) vs kj vs 77 i tripped up 77 hit set + boat on river.
ak(me) vs aq vs 55 nothing hit
flopped a set vs someone rivering higher set vs someone with shit
flopped tripps, someone hit annother boat on river in another 3 way pot.

bad plays: gave 1 bad beat (had top pair on flop he had over pair and i hit trips next card), was dominated 3 times and lost them all

notes: MULTIWAY POTS ARE BAD! they are extremely detrimental to the strategy i lost every multiway pot i played in i think (maybe won one or 2, but there were atleast like 6-7 multiway pots), and they were pots i otherwise would have won had one of the players who shouldnt of been in the pot wasnt in there.

[montimus]

I am very interested in how this turns out, but not really interested in doing it myself. For one I enjoy playing proper poker and am also making nice profits the old fashioned way

As far as I'm concerned, any poker that consistently makes you money is "proper poker."

This strategy may not be traditional or what would be considered "typical" solid poker play, but as you can well see, the results are currently there. It's a strategy that works under certain circumstances and conditions, but it seems to be working so far.

[johnnyawe]

There has been some discussion of this type of strategy before. I believe this strategy is a winner. As you play on, you will be able to refine the strategy. For example, if you have poker tracker, you can figure out which hands you are losing money on and drop them from your list.

The other advantage of leaving the table after you double up is that the other players won't catch on to what you are doing. You may want to leave the table after the first time you go bust, for the same reason.

[Manomanman]

In those multiway pots, the small PP's were actually the favorite. AK loses most of its value when it gets called by 2 hands. S&M, in their books, claim this is so but they don't tell you the specific reason why. The answer is quite simple. In a multiway pot, AK is only good if there are no pp's in play. If you're in a pot with AK v. KJ v. 55, it comes out 3:2:4 as the rough equities. (Having AK suited adds 5%, almost making it a cointoss between 55 and AKs). In layman's terms, going all-in with AK in this spot is like calling a preflop all-in with 9 10 suited against AK. It's better to play two high cards from late position because it will allow you to better gauge the number of people who will call. Today, I would probably limp with AK from early position.

I'm pretty sure this is why Fnord stressed pocket pairs like TT and JJ; they're a MONSTER favorite in a hand like JJ v. KJ v. 55.

[Manomanman]

I forgot to give you the most crucial piece of advice...lol, I can't believe I left this out!!!!

The key to this strategy is to sit to the right of a maniacal player (ie. the most maniacal player at your given table). He doesn't have to be a kamikaze, but he needs to be the one leading out the most. Any time he bets into a pot preflop, you will see exactly how many people call his raise, and you will know exactly how fat every pot is before the flop. I would advise sitting down with a little bit more money if you're going to do this, because it gives you versatility in your strategy. For example, you're in middle position with AK. You limp, the kamikaze to your left throws out a moderate bet, button calls and SB call, and now you have some options for this strategy. If your stack is pretty small, your all-in will be called by all 3 unless the maniac reraises. However, if you've got a medium-small stack, you can assure yourself that it will be a shorthanded pot.

If you sit to a maniac's right, you can use the Moneymaking strategy at higher stakes tables [sit down with a much smaller buyin] because fewer players will enter the pot when the maniac raises, and then you can pot commit the maniac or caller with a dominating hand when you all-in.

[TheDoc]

the thing that im trying to do, is have there be as little intuition as possible needed to implement this strategy. i want someone to read this sit down at a table, and not even have to think about anything just follow the set guidelines and be able to make money.

[Godzilla99]

Let me know about your all-in stats with AK , AKs pre-flop.
It seems like I have been getting killed with this in the formula.
I only go all in with AK,Aks and AQs if there are less than 4 people currently in the hand (including myself).

[TheDoc]

ai with ak seems to be about 50 50

[TheDoc]

session five:
-----------
starting br: $444.52
Total tables played: 13
#table at a time: 3
Times called:19
Times won:7
Times split:1
Times took blinds:7
Times all in:26
# of callers:22
Time played: 1hr 15 min
Bankroll : 433.68
Session $: -10.98
$/per hr: -8.67
$/per table: -.83
avg$per multitable per hour: -3.66
$/per called: -.50
$/per win: -1.57

lost most of my flips, couple bad

judgement calls cost me ~20 took 3-4 bad

beats. decent night could of been

a lot worse, but it also could of

been a lot better, im at fault for

being down 10$ instead of up

10-20$

[mjeffr0]

i just got beat by one of you guys. i was new to the table and the first had i was in he went all in with his 10 bucks so i fold my rags. The next hand i get delt pockt 10s and once again im behind his all-in and thinks he just thought he could steal the blinds again and the fact that i had a pritty good hand i call and this is what happend...

#Game No : 1327139633
***** Hand History for Game 1327139633 *****
$25 NL Hold'em - Monday, December 20, 20:17:34 EDT 2004
Table Table 11338 (Real Money)
Seat 10 is the button
Total number of players : 8
Seat 2: moneymaking player ( $10.75 )
Seat 4: player 2 ( $32.25 )
Seat 5: player 3 ( $23.75 )
Seat 6: player 4 ( $63.8 )
Seat 7: player 5 ( $49.75 )
Seat 9: player 6 ( $22.25 )
Seat 10: player 7 ( $52.5 )
Seat 3: Mjeffr0 ( $24.5 )
miliku posts small blind [$0.25].
Veach_ posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to mjeffr0 [ Th Ts ]
player 3 folds.
player 4 folds.
>You have options at Crystal Ball Table!.
player 5 folds.
player 6 folds.
player 7 folds.
player 8 calls [$0.5].
moneymaking player is all-In.
player 10 has joined the table.
mjeffr0 calls [$10.25].
>You have options at Crystal Ball Table!.
Aquamancer has joined the table.
followtheq folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Jh, 9s, 9c ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 7h ]
** Dealing River ** [ 7s ]
moneymaking player shows [ Ah, Jd ] two pairs, jacks and nines.
Mjeffr0 shows [ Th, Ts ] two pairs, tens and nines.
miliku wins $22 from the main pot with two pairs, jacks and nines.
Game #1327142080 starts.

[TheDoc]

session six:
-----------
starting br: $433.68
Total tables played:6
#table at a time: 3
Times called:7
Times won:2
Times split:1
Times took blinds:4
Times all in: 12
# of callers:10
Time played: 45
Bankroll :425.65
Session $: -8.03
$/per hr: -10.79
$/per table: -1.34
avg$per multitable per hour: -3.57
$/per called: -.80
$/per win: -4.03

lost 99 to aq, lost AA to kq offsuit.
lost kk to ax, and was dominated once.

[TheDoc]

Extremely interesting note everyone who is interested in this strategy must read!

I was reading through sklansky's tournament poker for advanced players book, and came across a chapter called "the 'system'" on page 122.

Spark notes: a casino owner wanted his daughter to play in the wsop, but she didn't know how to play poker so he asked skansky to help her out.

Here were his 2 instructions to her:
after the first few levels of blinds.

1. if someone raise din front of you, move in all of your chips with aces, kings, or ak suited otherwise fold
2. if no one else has raised in front of you, move in all of your chips with any pair any ace other suited, ace king, or two suited connected cards except four trey or trey deuce.


He basically went on to say that the casino owner tested this strategy the day before the event in a 2k mtt and came in fifth, and only lost because he deviated from the system, and otherwise would of came in third (turned 2k chips into 35k chips with the system before he lost)

His daughter was fine, untill she ran into a bigger stack that had aces and lost.

In the end sklansky explained that with adjusting the strategy to incorporate position, and adding more complex situational things in, that this could be a very very effective strategy in a tournament (and maybe even more so in a ring game as results have shown). He also said even if people knew the strategy, especially pro's it would be very effective vs them and have them "pulling their hair out".

I remember seeing someone mention S&M supporting this strat slightly, well now its apparent that they actually do support it, in a tournament none the less! We all thought that it wouldn't work in a tournament, but skansky thinks otherwise. I personally feel that it is more effective in a tournament for a lesser skilled player to go far, but might be more profitable and useable in a ring game.

[TheDoc]

edit i just turned the page, and he has an updated system, which is fairly complex. i'm too lazy to type it up so if you actually want to read it you'd have to find the book or search for it online. his more complex strategy would be MUCH harder to extrapolate to ring games, but would probably be effective in tournaments. at my casino there is a 100+35 buy in single table tourny daily which had 1500 units starting and 50-100 blinds that raise every 15min, so i would be able to implement the strategy right away with out waiting for the blinds to raise. The only problem is this tourny is probably way outside my bankroll. My broll now is somewhere around 1k, so it would be stressing it more then id like. if i can build my roll up to 2k (which by judging my play lately is very possible) then i might be more apt to try it.

[TheDoc]

new addition, im changing the way im going to record my results

the new results will revolve more around each specific hand: ie what i went all in with, limpers, raises, what i was called with etc... in other words the dynamics of each specific hand i move in with.

[TheDoc]

session seven:
-----------
starting br: $423.1 (pp fucked me when my comp shut off and i lost 6 $)
Total tables played:5
#table at a time: 3
Times called:7
Times won:2
Times split:1
Times took blinds:6
Times all in:13
# of callers:8
Time played:
Bankroll :
Session $:
$/per table:
avg$per multitable per hour:

(note i lost about 15 $ in this session that i didnt get a chance to record exactly)

1. kq vs a10 - win
2. 45 spades in bb, flop oe free turn hit straight all in called by a set and board paired on river - loss
3. 68 in bb 2 limpers flop was kk8 rainbow i check, next checks 3rd bets to i reraise all in he calls with rags - win.
4. k9 bb flop 439 push all in called by q9 board pairs and there is an ace so kicker doesnt play - split.
5. flopped 2 pair from bb another flopped nut flush - loss
6. kq vs AA (bb) - loss
7. aj vs 1010 flopped an a he rivered a 10 for his set - loss

[jace811]

What's happening? Been quite a long gap from session 7.

Either

i. The system worked too well and you've gone to Vegas
(a showgirl on each arm)
ii. The system took a tumble and you're drowning your sorrows
("I'll never bet again - hic!")
iii. You're simply too busy playing the system and have no time to post the results. ("I need more computer memory - more than 15 hands at once and my pc just grinds to a halt.")
iv. The temptation to play your normal game is just too great. ("I could have made the nut flush - and it was worth the gamble - I think")
v. You're struggling to remain awake whilst waiting for playable hands. ("last think I remember is thinking that I'd jut rest my eyes - and it happened again")
vi. You've found something even more interesting to do. ("Her name is Lola ... she is a showgirl ... ")

Whatever the reason I'm sure it's valid - and just to let you know that your results so far have been more than interesting, so I hope you reveal some more at some point.

Has anybody figured out the lowest BR needed to give this one a shot - some of us have limited funds (and would like to change that fact).

J

[TheDoc]

oh ive been at the casino lately playing thats why i havent played too much. a lot of the money ive lost has been on bad judgement calls where the system has no set answer for.

other notes:
cards have been fairly cold + i've been playing tighter then originally posted so the blinds are eating me up and im making less money when im going in and winning. sometime this weekend im going to have a hard core session, but im confident this is a winning system.

misc: minimum bankroll for this system id say is probably about 150 $ to be safe.

on that note session 7, which im too lazy and too tired to calculate the final variables.

session eight:
-----------
starting br: $262.1 (lost money playing stud lol thats why the broll is so low)
Total tables played:8
#table at a time: 4
Times called:6
Times won:3
Times split:
Times took blinds:5
Times all in:11
# of callers:7
Time played: 45 min
Bankroll : 269.35
Session $: +7.25
$/per table:
avg$per multitable per hour:

was only dominated one hand, aces limped in late position one to my right while i was on the button with kq suited so i pushed and he obviously called. The other hands i lost were coinflips, and the hands i won i was ahead preflop by a lot except one multiway pot which was kq (me) vs tt and 99 and i won on a flush and took down a 22$ pot with a 6.5$ investment in it. I only played 45 min because i was ready to pass out from being so tired at 7 am.

[Spook]

Has this project dried up?

[a500lbgorilla]

I suspect a christmas hollibobs is to blame.

-'rilla

[TheDoc]

busy with other things, will resume when i have the time.

[Cocco_Bill]

I have being playing 4 tables doing this strategy on Empire/party poker for the last week...

I record every pre flop all in and intend to run all the hands through pokerstove to calculate the average theretical edge I have. Then I will calculate with the binomial formula the probability to have this "bad luck"

So far I have lost clearly more than won despite very often having a dominating hand. This is pretty much what I expected from my earlier Empire/party poker experience. The data set is statistically still too small, but it sure doesn't look like the cards are falling randomly at all!

pre flop all in results against one opponent:

won 57
lost 66

I will count a dominating hand as a one which has a 2 to 1 chance of winning

Dominating hands held: 67
Dominated hands held: 12

So far it doesn't look good, but I will keep on playing to see if the results get any closer to the expected values.

[Cocco_Bill]

Here's a good binomial formula calculator

http://faculty.vassar.edu/lowry/binomialX.html

When I enter the recorded numbers I get the probability 0.0014981776782403485 for only winning 57 out of 123 given an approximative edge of .6 for the average hand(will run this through Pokerstove later).

This isn't any downswing either, its an ongoing trend which seemed even worse before I began this experiment, hence the reason I am doing it.

Maybe a better approximative average edge would be 0.56 which would give he probability 0.019703617603633316, still too low for my liking..

[Godzilla99]

Do you honestly think its the RnG from party/empire?
I think your dataset is too small. I tried this for about a week running this formula on Party :

Go to the table with $6-10
Preflop all-in AA-JJ, AK,AKs,AQs,AQ, AJs
Limp in with any PP, push all in if I hit my set.
If I double up, I leave the table and try again.

Else, I fold unless I hit a monster on the flop during a blind hand.
I went up and down during the week. Good days and bad. Probably played about 2000 hands.
In the end, I think I lost about $100. I don't think this theory strategy works over the long term, but I am interested in your results. Maybe it is party and empire. Let me know if anyone thinks they have a winning formula with this.