Hello,

I'm fairly new and am not sure why my calculation doesn't line up with several webpages I saw. It seems to me that if you have a pocket pair, then the probability of flopping a set is 1 - probability of not getting either of your 2 outs 3 times in a row, out of the remaining 50, 49 and 48 cards.

1 - (48/50*47/49*46/48) = 11.8%

The webpages I looked at said it's supposed to be 10.8% though.
http://www.homepokergames.com/odds.php

If anything, it seems like it should be slightly higher because I am not considering the case of quads. What am I doing wrong?

Also does anyone know offhand the probability of:
a) making at least a pair by the river, when you know what was dealt
b) making at least a pair by the river, when starting without a pocket pair

thanks,
John