Good fold, or..?

[koolmoe]

PL $25 buy-in table. I am in mid position with AK suited. Folds around to me, and I min-raise to $1... being cute and changing things up, because I've been raising a lot and winning a lot, so I feel like people are gunning for me. It folds around to the blinds. SB folds also, then the BB raises me big, up to $3.75.

This alone is reason to continue. BTW, when people are gunning for you and you have a hand preflop, raise it big. They want to make a stand at some point; might as well let them make it when you have a real hand.

I don't have a read on the player, suspect a high pair, but I call. Maybe I shouldn't have.

Flop is rainbowed, two rags and a king. I lead out aggressively letting him know I have a hand. $5 bet. He immediately raises me to the pot limit.

I thought about it, thought about it some more, slept on it, fought internal wars with all my instincts and motes of common sense, and eventually folded. My thinking:

1 - he *probably* has aces or kings, and if he has either I'm dead.

2 - the best thing I can realistically hope for is that he has AK and we're going to split the pot. This is a big amount to call hoping for a split though. Part of the reason you can call (or raise) here usually is expecting to win a certain % of the time and make the hand profitable in the long run... if I'm hoping for AT BEST a split, I think it's a negative expectation situation... yes?

3 - the best thing I can unrealistically hope for is that he's a moron overvaluing AQ or AJ, or he's crazy in love with pocket queens or pocket jacks. I have no notes on him so this is IMO a VERY unrealistic hope. Chance of this being the case, maybe 10% or less.

So... was I right to fold? I felt like I was, and still do, and overall despite losing $9 or so on this hand, I left the table up about $30.

He's more likely to have AK (6 ways) than AA (2 ways), and certainly KK (1 way). And why are you ruling out KQ (8 ways)? If I thought you were running over the table, I would certainly make a stand with KQ or KQs. If you're beat this time, oh well. I still think it's profitable to call in the long run given the scenario as you laid it out.

Assuming you narrow his range of hands to AA, KK, AK, and KQ based on his preflop play, 3 times you lose, 6 times you split, and 8 times you win. Clearly you have to call. If you rule out KQ it's a much more marginal call. Still, I think there's a pretty significant chance that he's bluffing here, and I would call anyway.