Hand analysis: the gutshot draw

[dalecooper]

***** Hand History for Game 1539698490 *****
$25 PL Hold'em - Friday, February 04, 10:28:58 EDT 2005
Table Table 11291 (Real Money)
Seat 9 is the button
Total number of players : 9
Seat 1: johnfvw ( $24.95 )
Seat 9: v6lrg8kl ( $49.15 )
Seat 10: stressball10 ( $21.5 )
Seat 5: avogadno ( $10 )
Seat 4: Brack8 ( $7.25 )
Seat 7: Oglusyf ( $13.85 )
Seat 2: smarchetti ( $27.1 )
Seat 3: slegur ( $24.5 )
Seat 8: pokeme99 ( $25 )
stressball10 posts small blind [$0.25].
johnfvw posts big blind [$0.5].
pokeme99 is sitting out.
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to stressball10 [ 9d Ts ]
thebabymaker has joined the table.
smarchetti folds.
slegur folds.
Brack8 folds.
avogadno folds.
Oglusyf folds.
v6lrg8kl calls [$0.5].
stressball10 calls [$0.25].
johnfvw checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 7s, 6s ]
stressball10 checks.
johnfvw checks.
v6lrg8kl bets [$0.75].
stressball10 calls [$0.75].
johnfvw calls [$0.75].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 6d ]
stressball10 bets [$0.75].
johnfvw calls [$0.75].
v6lrg8kl calls [$0.75].
** Dealing River ** [ 8h ]
stressball10 checks.
johnfvw bets [$1].
v6lrg8kl calls [$1].
stressball10 raises [$3].
johnfvw calls [$2].
v6lrg8kl folds.
stressball10 shows [ 9d, Ts ] a straight, six to ten.
johnfvw doesn't show [ 8s, 2c ] two pairs, eights and sixes.
stressball10 wins $12.35 from the main pot with a straight, six to ten.

[Corey]

shoulda bet more. So many people think 2 pair is golden. My biggest post was $80 on a straight on a PL table.

[dalecooper]

I'm posting this because I think it was a well-played hand, which some examples in it that may be instructive.

1. The starting hand - not that strong, but worth a quarter to play? Probably. The table was pretty tight/passive so getting into more pots was a goal of mine, with the aim of outplaying them post-flop. The only problem here was that v6lrg8kl had earlier demonstrated to me that he was the best and trickiest player at the table, so having him in the pot was a concern.

2. The flop - a gutshot draw with two overcards. I like my four outs for the straight, and I like my three outs for tens. I don't count the three nines as outs (although they might be) because of the possibility that either player, particularly the big blind, might have an 8 - so my top pair in that scenario would be his straight. I counted seven probable outs, so my draw was roughly a 15% shot (or 6:1).

3. The bet by v6lrg8kl gives me bad pot odds, but (goes my logic) decent implied odds, IF the other player calls. I have observed him prior to this hand to be a passive calling station type. I probably wouldn't get action from v6lrg8kl on my straight if I hit it, but this other guy would call a modest bet. In addition, knowing v6lrg8kl to be a solid player, I suspect he's just trying to buy with a cheap bluff, so I may even be in about the same boat he is - overcards and looking to improve, meaning I'm not much of a dog, and the nines would indeed be outs. So I call, and the other player calls as well.

4. The turn card isn't the card I want. How to get another one free? With a mirror bet of 75 cents. Leading out this way when the board pairs is a good move IMO... I'm bluffing the six (hoping neither of these guys has one). If they have the six, they'll raise and I can easily fold and get away from this one. If they don't, they'll call anyway for the cheap pot odds.

5. The river is my card so I check the obvious straight. johnfvw finally makes a move - typical of this type of player, at the exact wrong time (and with a hand that isn't very good - though notice he did have the 8 I was cautious about). v6lrg8kl calls (good pot odds mandate it if he has anything at all). I raise just enough to be called, getting the expected call from the weak player and the expected fold from the solid player. Overall profit after making the gutshot: $4, more than repaying my "bad" call on the flop bet of 75 cents. There's the implied value.

[dalecooper]

shoulda bet more. So many people think 2 pair is golden.

I think I made the right read here actually. The one player that called thought it over for a good ten seconds before calling, and I had him pegged as pretty passive. I figured if he had a 9 he would re-raise me; if he had what I figured (just a pair plus the board pair) he would probably call a bet that size, but wouldn't call a larger raise.

[Waggho]

Overall profit after making the gutshot: $4, more than repaying my "bad" call on the flop bet of 75 cents. There's the implied value.

Hmm... 15 % of $4 is $0.6.

[dalecooper]

Overall profit after making the gutshot: $4, more than repaying my "bad" call on the flop bet of 75 cents. There's the implied value.

Hmm... 15 % of $4 is $0.6.

But the pot was already $1.50 when I made that call, so I actually ended up getting $5.50 on my 75 cent call. Which now that I analyze it, is still a very slightly -EV call. So nevermind.