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Ok, i was just confusing myself earlier, but basically in this situation since i'm 35% to hit, this decision is a coinflip with a tiny edge in my favor.
But something interesting I notice, if i'm a short stack, all of a sudden my odds go up because preflop betting will be much greater in relation to my stack. so if there is 4 dollars total in preflop bets per person, if I have a full 50 dollar stack that still only brings me to maybe a 3-4% favorite, but if i have a 25 dollar stack i'm only putting 21 dollars in for a 75 dollar pot and i'm a 7% favorite. I don't advocate being shortstacked, but that might be why shortstacks notice they lose less, because they have better drawing odds.
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