calling huge bets with strong draw

[gabe]

I just busted in a mtt that I should have won and half my stack was lost on a hand where I called half of my stack for a draw. The description follows...

I am chipleader without about 45k right when we were about to reach ITM, blinds are 500/1000 and no antes. I had 4 8 in the BB. There was two callers and I check. Flop comes A23. I bet 2/3 the pot, first limper calls, the next one pushes his 20k all in. What's my move here? How many outs do I need to call this? Do I want to risk half my stack?

thanks for input

[TheDoc]

if he doesnt have a set its a coinflip, and if he doesnt have an ace you are ahead. if he has a higher flush draw you are pretty fucked.

[lovemachine]

well since you are already the chip leader, i dont think its worth the risk to chase the draw because if you hit, it will give you a huge stack, but if you miss you are back to middle of the pack. if you lay it down and remain chip leader you can easily win back the chips you lost by being a bully and stealing pots from the short stacks. i'd say it might be worth chasing if you are middle of the pack in chips or slightly lower because if you lose, then you lose on the bubble which shouldn't matter because you dont play mtts to make the money, you play them to win because in the long run this is how you make your money. but if you have about a 50% shot of doubling up in this position with a middle stack, it will put you near the top of the pack, which is right were you want to be during the bubble period. being one of the large stacks in this period allows you to easily bully those who are afriad to lose on the bubble because many people are too worried about making the money that they play scared and dont play to win. this then puts you in a great position to make it deep in the tournament. now on the other hand if you had checked this, he bets 2/3 of the pot, then you reraise all-in as the chip leader, i like this play much better because since he didn't raise preflop if he has an ace it probably isn't a very big kicker and would be scared of being outkicked, scared of 2 pair or scared of the straight, and if he is also on a flush draw it will likely get him to fold.

[Corey]

well since you did risk half your stack i just dont know the outcome except u losing...

you have 4 outs for the 5 to hit and some more outs for a heart. you either hit the heart but get beat buy a bigger one or you didnt hit and the other person has the ace....


tough but I honestly would have laid it down...

[Usuyami]

I came upon a similar situation as yours just now in a SnG.

#Game No : 1661367981
***** Hand History for Game 1661367981 *****
NL Hold'em $50 Buy-in + $5 Entry Fee Trny:9968404 Level:3 Blinds(25/50) - Monday, February 28, 04:13:13 EDT 2005
Table Table 11516 (Real Money)
Seat 2 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 1: dagmartin ( $1060 )
Seat 8: flaminemu ( $3927 )
Seat 2: XiaoWu ( $1510 )
Seat 10: reddog888 ( $3311 )
Seat 5: ABBS128 ( $192 )
Trny:9968404 Level:3
Blinds(25/50)
There is no Small Blind in this hand as the Big Blind of the previous hand left the table.
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to XiaoWu [ 9s 8s ]
flaminemu folds.
reddog888 raises [100].
dagmartin calls [100].
XiaoWu calls [100].
ABBS128 folds.
** Dealing Flop ** [ 2s, Ad, 5s ]
reddog888 bets [375].
dagmartin is all-In [960]
XiaoWu folds.
reddog888 calls [585].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5h ]
** Dealing River ** [ Jc ]
reddog888 shows [ 8c, 8h ] two pairs, eights and fives.
dagmartin shows [ As, Qs ] two pairs, aces and fives.
dagmartin wins 2270 chips from the main pot with two pairs, aces and fives.
Game #1661370613 starts.

Dunno what your final results were, but in my case, I chose to fold.

[gabe]

one thing that is different in your hand is that the ace on the flop is not the same suit as the flush draw. i think this makes a big difference because people are more likely to play suited aces rather than suited connectors. if the ace in my hand wasn't a heart, i would think it is more likely i would be pretty much drawing dead.

[zenbitz]

Giving the pusher the benefit of the doubt...

he limped, then pushed on a A23 with 2 hearts.
He's probably not on a bluff - he probably has top pair crappy kicker, two pair, or a set of 2s/3s. Could also easily have 9Th or JQh.

If he open raised all in, I would say it's more likely he's on the flush draw, but since you already bet at it, I gotta put him on at least top pair, or a set looking for a call.

That's decent in that if that's the case, then probably most of your outs are good as long as the board doesn't pair. Call it ~10 outs.

I don't think it's worth the call. Only if he has AX do you even get your coinflip. Everything else you are way behind (except a stone cold bluff)

[ilikeaces86]

call that shit

[Aces]

I vote lay it down. Maybe call a shorter stack, but not for half your chips.

[ilikeaces86]

were you trying to win the MTT? If you were then great call....read Daniel Negreanu's stuff he takes risks like that all the time if he thinks he can win it if he picks up that pot

[lovemachine]

lay it down, you are already chip leader, if you call and lose then you are back to middle of the pack during the bubble period. being chip leader during this bubble period is important because you will continue to build your lead if you steal blinds/pots from the short stacks who are playing to make the money and are afraid of busting on the bubble.

if you were middle stack, make the call because you are one of the chips leaders if you hit this draw, because bubble is one of the best times to build a stack if you have a big stack to play with. this is also under the assumption you aren't playing to make the payouts but playing to make the real money ( win the tournament )

[TylerK]

Iffy. You're probably not FAR behind here, but if I'm reading right, the pot odds suck. I think you can find a better spot.

[Wet_DreaMer]

Good call

[Iconoclastic]

You have to call like 18k to win like 45k. Those pot odds are good enough for me. But then again I'm a MTT LAG. If you're more comfortable playing it safer that's fine.