For discussion... bet on the end or no?

[dalecooper]

***** Hand History for Game 1683353305 *****
$50 NL Hold'em - Friday, March 04, 11:25:24 EDT 2005
Table Table 37138 (Real Money)
Seat 4 is the button
Total number of players : 10
Seat 1: stressball10 ( $86.25 )
Seat 2: azazelzed ( $57.7 )
Seat 4: smoothmaniac ( $48.05 )
Seat 5: Kozmo711 ( $54.1 )
Seat 6: STI320 ( $45.75 )
Seat 7: jhayjunior ( $29.63 )
Seat 8: pkrtommy ( $85.7 )
Seat 9: kietle ( $46.75 )
Seat 10: drunk2night ( $65.1 )
Seat 3: MattCL05 ( $25.25 )
Kozmo711 posts small blind [$0.25].
STI320 posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to stressball10 [ 9h Jh ]
jhayjunior folds.
pkrtommy calls [$0.5].
drunk2night calls [$0.5].
stressball10 calls [$0.5].
azazelzed folds.
MattCL05 folds.
smoothmaniac folds.
Kozmo711 folds.
STI320 checks.
** Dealing Flop ** [ Kd, Kh, 4s ]
STI320 checks.
pkrtommy checks.
drunk2night checks.
stressball10 checks.
** Dealing Turn ** [ Jc ]
STI320 checks.
pkrtommy checks.
drunk2night checks.
stressball10 checks.
** Dealing River ** [ 8h ]
STI320 checks.
pkrtommy checks.
drunk2night checks.
stressball10 checks.



My take on it was this: there's no reason to value bet here. I probably have the best hand, but if no one else has a king or jack I'm not likely to get called. If someone else does have a king I'll get raised and I'm just wasting a bet; if they have a jack I have potential kicker problems when they call. Is that correct? I feel like you almost always want to bet when you feel your hand is best, but in this situation I figured I stood to win exactly as much if my hand was best, and to save myself money if someone was slowplaying a good hand.

[m3laNcholy]

I think u are pretty much right. I bet here isnt profitable cause if u get called u probably lose. Maybe a bet on the turn and fold if u are raised or check/fold if u are called.

[dalecooper]

I think u are pretty much right. I bet here isnt profitable cause if u get called u probably lose. Maybe a bet on the turn and fold if u are raised or check/fold if u are called.

I thought about betting the turn, and usually I would - or at least I have in the past in most hands like this. But it's so common for someone to flop trips like that, then check until someone bets and go for the raise. There's nothing I hate more than throwing out the first post-flop bet on the turn and getting check-raised.

[whileone]

Your reasoning sounds perfect to me. I can only thing of two exceptions.
1. If you are trying to project an aggressive table image, this is a good place to bet.
2. The pot was raised. 4 big blinds dosn't seem worth putting up a fight. 8 or 12BB might be worth a bet on the turn.

[a500lbgorilla]

Tiny pot, just check.

-'rilla

[UG]

You have got to check it here. If you raise and get reraised then you're screwed. You know he probably doesn't have the best hand but it wouldn't be worth it to find out.

I say you check here and take down a small pot because you have the best hand. If you check and lose, then it's good you didn't lose more....and that dude is a freaking idiot for not betting trip kings.

So what happened?

[dalecooper]

So what happened?

I won with the only jack at the table. There was one guy with an 8, which made me wonder - if I'd min-bet on the end I suppose he might have called me. Not a lot of extra profit, but if I run into this hand a hundred times it adds up.

[LeFou]

Yeah, if you can win $2.25 with a crappy hand like this it's enough

[whileone]

Not a lot of extra profit, but if I run into this hand a hundred times it adds up.

let's see, you min bet, and your op
reraise 10% - $0
call 40% - $2.50
fold 50% - $2.00

for $100 + $100 + $0
$200/100 tries

vs you check & win

- 100% - $2.00
$200/100 tries

you may actualy lose the showdown, so that may skew things a bit, but it seems to me, even if they call a *lot* you're just about even with checking.