SNG Profitability

[aleksandr]

ITM % is good and all, however, with first place paying almost triple third, and comparative to the cost of the tournament, almost nothing, a 42% ITM can mean alot of breaking even tighting it out to hit a close 3rd, or it can mean playing good loose aggressive and coming in with a good spread of mostly top 2 finishes and making bank. I'm finding that, in general, making it to the bubble isn't hard. You can fold your way in there, basically, but when you're down to 1350 in chips and the blinds have moved up to 100/200, it's hard to fold your way out of it.

What I'm looking to do here is increase my profitability from the bubble, and after reading DavSimon, Rip, and Rada's tournament advice, I think I'm starting to get the picture. Reads reads reads, play aggressive into weakness, tight into aggressives, steal some blinds, and pick your battles.

Now my question is, from the bubble on, how can I use my stack size to mathematically increase my profitability? There are a kind of pot odds in SNGs that I'll term "ITM odds," where your odds to call are improved by your chances to move up a payscale or two if you hit.

-How do the stacks at the table directly affect my odds of making money at this table?
-A massively overpowering stack can statistically push every hand, crack AA, and win the tournament profitably; however, for instance, if I have 6x your stack, and you push a 6:1 favorite, is this a more profitable call than a fold? With how many people is this a profitable call?
How do I use my stack to determine what raises I should call preflop, and when I should lean on someone without particularly solid preflop credentials (raggy suited connectors and cheesy hands like KTo?)
-How much should having a short stack directly to my affect my play?
-How much should having a big stack directly to my left affect my play?
-As a short stack, I know that I can't win this all the time as there is risk in every hand and risk in not playing any particular hand; is there a way to margin my bluff pushes against my PP and high connector pushes to make my stack odds better at tight tables? At loose tables?
-As a short stack, based upon blinds, does it become more profitable to push a hand that is generally a big dog preflop? i.e., when at what ratio of big blind:stack does it become more profitable to push a 2:1 hand (2:1 vs AK) facing a raise than to fold it on the BB? 3:1? 4:1?

Feel free to add more questions. I'm going to try to math them out.

[DavSimon]

Holy smokes, what a well thought out and complicated question. If you are looking for a mathmatical solution to the problems you posed then I think you are going to be disappointed. I know the Aokwrongly has spent a lot of time considering and calculating variables for all sorts of situations....so he may be the best person to directly answer your questions. However my answer will have to be: "it depends" I am not trying to avoid answering your questions...as you have seen I don't mind typing long explanations and discussing issues...but the questions you have brought up are so situational that there really is not one answer or optimal/correct strategy for dealing with them.

Examples: If you are a large stack on the bubble and the other opponents have been showing aggression trying to knock each other out or build thier stack....you should absolutely sit back and let them beat each other's brains in and wait for the goods to play. They have already shown aggression and the propensity to push all-in, simply set a trap and let them hang themselves.
If you are the same large stack on the bubble and the other opponents are "playing not to lose" then you should absolutely start leaning on them relentlessly until one of them makes a mistake or is forced to play a hand.

And it may seem counter intuitive but I will play a short stack on the bubble the exact same way as I would play a large stack. If everone is playing aggressive then be very paient (as patient as a short stack can afford to be) and push into any weakness with the best hands. If everyone is playing passively camping for card...waiting for you or someone else to blind out....then I would attack. They are afraid of bubbling themselves so you have to adopt the attitude of no fear. In this situation to win, you must be willing to die. If you aggressive push time and time again you will end up being the big stack from blind steals or winning a flip, or you will run into a big hand. Once you have played to the bubble, it is time to stop looking for formulas, and stop simply playing cards....and time to start playing poker.

[aokrongly]

-How do the stacks at the table directly affect my odds of making money at this table?
-A massively overpowering stack can statistically push every hand, crack AA, and win the tournament profitably; however, for instance, if I have 6x your stack, and you push a 6:1 favorite, is this a more profitable call than a fold? With how many people is this a profitable call?
How do I use my stack to determine what raises I should call preflop, and when I should lean on someone without particularly solid preflop credentials (raggy suited connectors and cheesy hands like KTo?)
-How much should having a short stack directly to my affect my play?
-How much should having a big stack directly to my left affect my play?
-As a short stack, I know that I can't win this all the time as there is risk in every hand and risk in not playing any particular hand; is there a way to margin my bluff pushes against my PP and high connector pushes to make my stack odds better at tight tables? At loose tables?
-As a short stack, based upon blinds, does it become more profitable to push a hand that is generally a big dog preflop? i.e., when at what ratio of big blind:stack does it become more profitable to push a 2:1 hand (2:1 vs AK) facing a raise than to fold it on the BB? 3:1? 4:1?

Feel free to add more questions. I'm going to try to math them out.

I don't know if any of my answers are going to be particularly insightful, but I saw the AOK beacon over Gotham City and figured I would see what all the hubbub was about.

First, where do you play. If you can fold your way to the bubble, I want to play there. So please let me know where you play, game and stakes.

To your questions.

None of this is based on math - just my experience.
1. If you're a solid player then you stack directly relates to your chances. If you have 80% of the chips at the table you have a 80% chance of coming in first - of course that changes as the blinds and bets move around. I will say this. You have 100% of making it ITM when your ITM even with 1 chip. So, at SnG's don't get crazy "stack building" to give you a better chance of making 1st, if it halves your chances of making it ITM at all.

2. Playing as the big stack. If the other 2 players are battling each other as much as they are you, then get out of the way and let one of them knock the other out. I would push someone else AI with a 1:6 chance before I would call them with the same odds. There are situations where I'll call regardless - and you would too. Really short stack who needs the blinds (you see this alot in the blinds and UTG with blinds coming). Other than that I'm fairly selective. The better, and more successful move than pushing every hand, IMO, is to call with just about anything in an unraised pot, and from any position, even with quality or monster cards. When your raised preflop with junk, fold. Look at the flop, if you hit bet (min always), if you miss, check or fold to a bet. This conditions the other players that your checks mean weakness and your bets mean strength.

You can then use this to bust them out. You'll get a quality hand and call only to have someone go AI over the top. Or you'll flop a true quality hand and you can check and have someone who needs it try to steal.

I've found that to be more effective than pushing alot. Because, eventually someone will stand up with any 2 and catch a pair. Or you'll walk into quality. "Trap with the Stack!"

Next. With a big stack to your left you need to know whether he'll call a raise or fold. If he'll call, then you need to have cards. If he'll fold then you don't. This is 100% read. When you raise do min raises. If he'll call a min raise he'll call an AI, generally. So see the flop.

With the small stack. I'll call with quality before I'll try to steal with it. First AK needs help, and someone may call with any 2 and hit low pair. Second, if someone goes over the top then I'll gladly call them. If I can get people to check instead of reraising me, then I'll play middle connectors, etc. and see what I can hit. Maybe I'll call preflop and bet the flop with a bluff as a steal and find that more effective than just pushing. The reasoning for this is that if the flop misses them with any 2 and you bet, then they're more likely to fold. If they called with KQ and an A hits, even if it missed you, they might fold, etc. There's more to scare them post flop than preflop.

If there's one monster stack who's active and two smaller stacks. Be willing to blind out. Stay as long as possible. Because that other guy may play into the big stack and get busted. Even good hands get busted by the chip leader. He has chip odds that overcome pot odds. So that raise that pushed everyone out and make you chips with AQ before is now called with 89 and he catches a pair of 9's to bust you, or a straight.

If you want to push a dog preflop, do it 3 handed where UTG raises and 2nd player calls. You're on the BB here. That's your best chance that they are interfering with each other's high cards and your low cards, if they catch, might hold up. And you have almost 100% chance that they'll both call, which will triple you up if a miracle happens. You'll probably lose, but if you're to the WTF stage, then that's when to do a WTF (what the fuck) play.

Hope this helps.

[poskid_1982]

*Disclaimer - I am a very win oriented player*

With that being said. If you can make ITM nearly every time folding to the bubble than you're playing in the right mindset. You want to maximize your chances to place in the top 2 as much as possible though. If you are playing tight early (PP and Nothing lower than an AT suited) you should still be able to make some stack increases early. Your best mathematical situation is to never again be low stack (If you accomplish this let me know, I'll bankroll you)

Building the stack early-
The way I build my stack is to play more hands on the button when the TAG players have folded. I win as many small pots as I can to increase my stack. Even 2-3 pots in this manner can really help your chances for that top 2.

Small stack Math-
I play simple odds mostly and am willing to push with hands that I consider either top quality drawing hands or something I read as a winner (i.e. PP when they have A-rag). If I see a cheap flop and have a draw to the nuts I push. These are the only ways I've found to equalize that big stack running me over. (remember that pushing only works if it can hurt the big stack...Dont wait too long)

I guess mostly being said that in order to mathematically improve your chances as a low stack...Dont play mathematically.

[aleksandr]

I just got back from spring break and I was hoping to see a bit more here. Figure I'll bump it up to the top and see if I can't get people to drop in.

I was rereading Rip or Rada's strategy guide a bit ago and I hit an important note. "Play to win." I think it was Rada's. Anyway, the sentance that followed read something along the lines of "Every move you make should put you in position to win the tournament." You can also read that to say, "No move you make should put you out of position to win the tournament."

This is key to the root question I think that I'm chipping away at, "How do I make more money at SNGs?"

For instance, when there are 5 people seated at the table, blinds 100/200, and I'm #2 big stack with 3800 chips on the big blind, and Joe Aggro is 2nd to last with 1300 chips and raises 600 against my QJo, the question that strikes most people here is, what hand do I put him on, and do I push him all in or not?

Thinking about it, I don't think that's quite right. Remove the cards from the picture, you end up with 900 chips in the pot and a short stack in for half his stack.

If you re-raise him 1300 chips, he has the choice to call, or fold and be stuck with 700 chips with heavy blinds, and will push again soon with a worse hand. If he calls and wins, he comes out of his hole and out-stacks you by 400 chips, 2900-2500. If you win, a not so modest gain of 1600 chips to give you a slight edge over the chip leader at 5400, and you eliminate a player.

If you fold, he profits 300 chips and has 1600 chips remaining, a little under half of your 3800, which means you can easily be patient and pick a better time.

If you call, you can get more information on the flop, and try to make a better decision, for 600 chips, putting you down to 3200, which is very respectable.

Winning this hand does not put you ITM directly, but gives you a good shot at winning everything. Losing this hand puts you in a position to be kicked out on the very edge of the bubble. Now you've got more questions to ask:

The obvious:
How likely are you to beat him? How likely is he to fold? How aggressive has he been playing as the short stack, and what moves has he made recently? Also, why the 3xbb raise and not a flat out push? And, what does he want me to do here?

The not so obvious:
How does this guy affect the table? Is he annoying people, and causing a ruckus, or is he sitting quiet, getting his blinds stolen and waiting for his time? Who does he have position on, and if he stays, would he most damage my stack, the big stack, the middle stack, or the small stack? Who would he help?

How has he been respecting my raises? Can I steal the money I am folding back?

How am I playing against the rest of the table? How would winning or losing money here affect my ability to fight people with position on me, and to steal later?



Here, the laydown seems to be a very good option. If he's playing a solid Group 2+ hand you're probably a 2:1 dog or worse here. The call is also very solid, because if you hit the flop, you're probably way ahead, you can make laydowns to an A, and you can see how he plays it, and how your own draws are shaping up. I wouldn't push him for all his chips here unless I think he's stealing and will fold. If he's donating alot of chips to the big stack, however, I might take this chance to take him down, and if he doubles up then he has some leverage to fight back with, and if he's donating alot of chips to me I'll definately push him because if I lose, I can make it back later. If he's a big source of the action at the table, I might fold this one and see if he can't impale himself on a better hand later, or impale someone else.

Anyway, the point is, all of the questions I just listed, I should be able to answer with time to spare before making my decision, and that's going to be a big part of the risk vs. reward that is important in making tournament money.

[DavSimon]

The situation you just laid out is common, but horribly complicated. So much depends on position in this case. If you are BB and he is the SB or button and everyone folded around to him...this is an easy push. Joe Aggro is trying to steal the blinds with the minimum amount of investment and risk to his stack...if he had a very strong hand he would/should simply push instead of leaving so few chips behind. But again it all depends on how many people are yet to act behind you...if you are certain to be HU with this guy I take the shot at the knock out...if you win you are in excellent chip position, if you lose you are not too bad off with those blinds and 5 people left.
Now if there was an EP limper I would probably fold, since he likely is on a very strong hand and is trying to extract the maximum value for it instead of an outright steal. As you described the situation you are in a clear push/fold scenario.....I would never simply call that bet....calling simply leaves it up to the cards and unless you catch a big piece of the flop you have fewer ways to win. If you put him to a decision for all his chips...you may win by him folding, but even if he calls you may still win with the cards. As Soupie and Rada have said many times you effectively double you chances to win. If your read on the opponent is a guy that is backed into a corner or typically slow plays big hands then the conservative thing would be to fold.

The more situations you see like this one, the better you get at making a quick assesment and good decision...there are so many ways to play it and truthfully I may play the exact same situation differently on different days. I really depends on the opponent and table texture...if I think I can easily run over the rest of the table with a big stack I am taking the shot. If there or a couple highly aggressive stealers still left I will wait for a better spot because in that case every chip is valuable to me. I hate saying it depends....but so often it does, so I hope the 1 thing you get from my ambiguous answer is that it is a push/fold situation....do not call there.