flush draws at final table?

[hazelblue]

This is what I don't get.
I got knocked out of an SnG (two places out of ITM) because someone was willing to call my all-in on a flush draw (which they made on the river.
My all-in was 75% of this person's stack (I had 4500, he had close to 6000 in chips.
I flop TPTK (ATo from the blinds) with two spades on the flop and push AI to fold out the flush draws. He catches a spade on the river and busts me out. He was holding 79s.

Another time, same situation (I raise preflop to 5x with AQo and everyone calls.).
I flopped TPTK and make raises, which get called. I end up losing (again) to some big stack holding QT suited and makes his flush on the river.

I once saw Phil Helmuth push all-in on the flop with a flush draw (ESPN's great all-ins, I think).

Why are people willing to call ANYTHING with a flush draw? Are the odds usually in their favor when they call?
Or is it just bad play on their part?

[melinda27]

if you have tptk that means a T is on the board with his 79, if theres something else out connecting his draw which i'm thinking there is with a ten being the top card, maybe a 6 or 8 also if the flop is 6XT and he has 7s9s he's looking at 12 outs probably 45% to win the hand from there and its not for his tournament life so hes in good shape, if its X8T he's OESD and flush drawing so he's a favorite to win the hand and its an easy call. You say its 2 places from the money so even if he loses this hand hes still going to make it into the money, but if he wins this hand and gets a nice fat 4500 additional chips he's looking alot better to get to the final table than he was before this hand was dealt. I'd call it too.

[hazelblue]

Actually, I did the calculations and I'm still a bit pissed about it.

I had AcTh and he had 7s9s.

The flop was Ts 8s 2d.

Apparently, even though I had TPTK, I was holding a 43.2 to 56.8% disadvantage (less than a coin flip).
And to top it off, I now realise he had about 17 outs for the nuts.

I should have raised him pre-flop.
And had he missed his flush and straight, I would have gladly finished him off.

I still don't get the deal with calling gross-sized raises on flush draws.
Oh well.

[Staresy]

Stasia

I think I have to agree w/ Melinda here. He has an OESFD, which makes him fave to win from here. I think I would call with the same logic provided i.e. if I lose, I take a hit but its not critical BUT if I win (which I am fave to do) I am in pole position to win the whole thing, sitting w/ c.75%-80% of the chips on the table.

I still don't get the deal with calling gross-sized raises on flush draws.
Oh well.

No. But if certain players didn't do this, u wouldn't get paid off the 2 out of 3 times they don't hit.

[Zangief]

I once saw Phil Helmuth push all-in on the flop with a flush draw (ESPN's great all-ins, I think).

Calling an all-in with a flush draw is a lot different from pushing all-in with a flush draw. When pushing with a flush draw, it is a semi-bluff where you hope to win the current pot, but also have a 35% chance to hit the flush if you are called.

[SavX]

With his cards.. I'd push that all in/call a all in. He has chip advatange and well.. a lot of outs.

[hazelblue]

So risking 75% of your stack on a flush draw, when there's a 54% chance of missing is the RIGHT thing to do, huh?

There's a word for it. It's called gambling.

I'll remember this the next time one of you decide to complain about missing their many-out flush draw...(tournament or not).

[Zangief]

So risking 75% of your stack on a flush draw, when there's a 54% chance of missing is the RIGHT thing to do, huh?

There's a word for it. It's called gambling.

I'll remember this the next time one of you decide to complain about missing their many-out flush draw...(tournament or not).

You sound sort of upset, so it seems like you missed something.

Whether your opponent already had a hand that beats yours on the flop is irrelevant. Based on the flop and each of your cards, he is going to win that hand 56.8% of the time if it goes to a showdown.

Basically, any spade, any Jack, and any 6 wins it for him. (Not counting runner-runner combinations.)

If he wins, he is in a better position to win first place. If he loses, he will still have some chips left, so he could still get ITM.

As for gambling, you should realize that that is what you are doing when you play poker. Nothing is guaranteed.

[Fnord]

When playing poker at some point you're going to have to make some even money gambles or lose by default. Also consider that if you show the table you're willing to gamble it may be +EV as they'll be less willing to play back at you.