A common bubble problem

[Fnord]

Been running into this one a lot lately.

You're down to 4 in an SnG on a typical stack. The other players have a clue.

You have A 7 and raise to 3xBB UTG.
You are re-raised all-in by a fairly sane player from the Button/SB/Button and has you covered by at least enough to cripple you.

What pot odds do you need to call this? What factors do you need to consider?

[poskid_1982]

My biggest things here are. 1) Will this set me up for the win? If the answer is yes I call in a heartbeat. If no then I throw it. 2) If this will set me up for the win can I trust my opponent to be holding a small to middle PP or a lower drawing hand? If yes I call. If no fold.

These are my main 2 criteria for calling in this situation...Logically I want to be pushing but for a call I weigh these 2 questions most heavily.

One last thing I want to point out here is that (depending on table dynamics) I would probably not raise UTG with this hand...Even this late in the tourney.

[Fnord]

One last thing I want to point out here is that (depending on table dynamics) I would probably not raise UTG with this hand...Even this late in the tourney.

4 handed, lets say ~2000 chips and 75/150 blinds can you seriously expect to wait for a better hand?!?!?

[Fnord]

*********** # 46 **************
PokerStars Game #1537458449: Tournament #7084264, Hold'em No Limit - Level V (75/150) - 2005/04/17 - 04:58:04 (ET)
Table '7084264 1' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 3: pyroponic (2050 in chips)
Seat 4: hold'mdealer (6028 in chips)
Seat 5: reprisal3 (1907 in chips)
Seat 7: HenryFnord (3515 in chips)
hold'mdealer: posts small blind 75
reprisal3: posts big blind 150
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HenryFnord [As 9h]
HenryFnord: raises 300 to 450
pyroponic: raises 1600 to 2050 and is all-in
hold'mdealer: folds
reprisal3: folds
HenryFnord: folds
pyroponic collected 1125 from pot
pyroponic: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1125 | Rake 0
Seat 3: pyroponic (button) collected (1125)
Seat 4: hold'mdealer (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: reprisal3 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: HenryFnord folded before Flop


*********** # 53 **************
PokerStars Game #1537465822: Tournament #7084264, Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2005/04/17 - 05:02:07 (ET)
Table '7084264 1' Seat #7 is the button
Seat 3: pyroponic (2300 in chips)
Seat 4: hold'mdealer (5346 in chips)
Seat 5: reprisal3 (3264 in chips)
Seat 7: HenryFnord (2590 in chips)
pyroponic: posts small blind 100
hold'mdealer: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HenryFnord [7h Ah]
reprisal3: folds
HenryFnord: raises 400 to 600
pyroponic: raises 900 to 1500
hold'mdealer: folds
HenryFnord: folds
pyroponic collected 1400 from pot
pyroponic: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1400 | Rake 0
Seat 3: pyroponic (small blind) collected (1400)
Seat 4: hold'mdealer (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: reprisal3 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: HenryFnord (button) folded before Flop

*********** # 87 **************
PokerStars Game #1537348842: Tournament #7083296, Hold'em No Limit - Level VI (100/200) - 2005/04/17 - 04:06:26 (ET)
Table '7083296 1' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 3: jkstay (6077 in chips)
Seat 5: biggn73 (2347 in chips)
Seat 7: HenryFnord (1626 in chips)
Seat 8: Leiby (3450 in chips)
jkstay: posts small blind 100
biggn73: posts big blind 200
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to HenryFnord [7s As]
HenryFnord: raises 400 to 600
Leiby: raises 2850 to 3450 and is all-in
jkstay: folds
biggn73: folds
HenryFnord: folds
Leiby collected 1500 from pot
Leiby: doesn't show hand
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 1500 | Rake 0
Seat 3: jkstay (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: biggn73 (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 7: HenryFnord folded before Flop
Seat 8: Leiby (button) collected (1500)

[poskid_1982]

After seeing your hand histories i understand a bit more what you mean. I didnt realize you were as short stacked as you were. #53 and #87 I push/call the allin. 53 because yes he cripples you but you take him out and go to the money probably gonna place 1 or 2. 87 youre pot commited with your bet already. Chuck em in and hope it's a middle stack standing his ground with small to middle PP.

As for 46. I think the UTG raise is a little exceptional with the middle stack and 23xBB. This is where I call instead of raise IMO.

[Estrop]

Thats a hard one.. Most of the time, I'd fold these.. He could have a better Ax, or a PP, which has more outs then you..

[zenbitz]

These are all really tough.
46, I think I lay down. It hurts, but you don't really want to switch places with this guy, and you are not even S00TED if he has AQ.

53 is odd - why didn't he push you all in? If you fold, you are down to 10 BB and in last place. Would you rather push a random hand (vs. random) or push A7s into strength?

I think if I have been stealing alot at this stage, and have backed off (i.e, hand 46), he might be muscling you with something somewhat weak.

87 - I think I push preflop. I think I have to call the big stack.

[aleksandr]

People are pushing at this stage with QJs and mid-high PPs. There's a good chance you have him beat.

Don't be afraid to put your chips in the middle unless they're still very tight at this stage. You win, you double up and are in a strong position to win; you're getting about 3:1 on your investment here, assuming you split second and first if you take this pot, so I'd call.

[jak]

Been running into this one a lot lately.

You're down to 4 in an SnG on a typical stack. The other players have a clue.

You have A 7 and raise to 3xBB UTG.
You are re-raised all-in by a fairly sane player from the Button/SB/Button and has you covered by at least enough to cripple you.

What pot odds do you need to call this? What factors do you need to consider?

the most important factors to me are:

- have you been aggressive before? did they see you raising weaker hands?
what is your table image?
- if reraised, do you often lay it down or do you call more often?
did the player reraise you earlier?
- what about the raiser, is he super-tight? have you seen him pushing with
non-premium hands? did he push you off a hand earlier?

the problem is, if you call and lose you are out and won't cash.
if i'd face an all in-bet from a tight player he's probably in the lead, and i let it go.

on the other hand, almost no player likes to gamble at this point.
they will play a little more safe to get at least itm.
some players use this for stealing, but if it's a tight opponent he is
maybe making a very nice move at the right time, but most of the time he will have a monster.

everything depends on your read at this point, i see people pushing
with 33 and worse. if its one of those guys, easy call.

but you said the others had a clue...

[drmcboy]

Also happens to me all the time... seems like every time you call the re raise with A7s they turn over 88...

'what is your table image?' - double edged sword here - I mean you know if you have been raising a lot people are likely to push back with low PPs and or KQ type hands... but if you're tight, the guy may be re raising because he knows you'll fold a marginal hand.

I'm calling 87, folding the other two.

[DavSimon]

#46 - Looked an aweful lot like a resteal...probably A-x (lower than yours) or K-Qs

#53 - Looks likes he wants you to come over the top...He probably had A-K at least.

#87 - Saw that you were willing to lay down your 3x raise twice before and he figure he would steal a play from the other guy

Most likley if I had done a UTG raise like that I would have folded the first two and pushed the third one. First one...I just give the guy credit...the second one the short of all-in reraise would worry me, feels like he is try to say; "hey I'm not all that strong...push back at me." The third one was probably not even a small pocket pair...could be suited connectors putting a move on you.

When I'm middle stacked I will occasionally limp if it looks like we can see a flop (limper in front of me) but most of the time If I am playing the hand from early position it is all-in....make them decide to play for all of thier chips (or a large portion of the big stack)
On the bubble and UTG: A-x or any pocket pair and I push, I stay away from K-Q, K-J, J-T and the like unless I am in late position or heads up. "Standard" raises usually get snapped off by someone willing to push, however....you can use that to your advantage to trap somone if you pick up Aces or Kings.

Anyway what buy-in SnG was this and how did you finish?

[melinda27]

i dont call it with A7 but i probably call it with 87. Weak aces are just too easily dominated for me to be comfortable with calling an all in. I probably just fold and try to steal 2/3 next blinds to make up for it with intentions of calling an all in if i need to. Just dont like weak aces that late to defend against resteals.

[Fnord]

The self weighted all-in rankings. A MUST read for any SnG player

AAo: 0.852774
KKo: 0.786445
QQo: 0.732733
JJo: 0.699019
TTo: 0.669922
AKs: 0.669236
AKo: 0.652736
AQs: 0.641415

99o: 0.633504
AJs: 0.622761
AQo: 0.622686
ATs: 0.607714
AJo: 0.602546
88o: 0.6019

ATo: 0.586468
A9s: 0.579613
77o: 0.575587
KQs: 0.567876

A8s: 0.560263
A9o: 0.556357
66o: 0.553482
KJs: 0.550502
KQo: 0.544779
A7s: 0.543824
KTs: 0.535916

A8o: 0.535642
55o: 0.533648
A6s: 0.527961
A5s: 0.526257
KJo: 0.525986
A7o: 0.518098
A4s: 0.517687
44o: 0.511433
A3s: 0.511124
KTo: 0.510402
K9s: 0.507929
A2s: 0.504211
A6o: 0.500889
A5o: 0.499103
QJs: 0.49305
A4o: 0.489862
33o: 0.489583
A3o: 0.482721
K8s: 0.480828
K9o: 0.480425
QTs: 0.480021
A2o: 0.475245
22o: 0.470103
K7s: 0.466971
QJo: 0.465063
JTs: 0.45915
K6s: 0.454267
Q9s: 0.45305
K8o: 0.451482
QTo: 0.451136
K5s: 0.443539
K7o: 0.436688
K4s: 0.435184
J9s: 0.432513
JTo: 0.429237
Q8s: 0.428724
K3s: 0.428569
T9s: 0.426697
K2s: 0.423425

Lets see, 87 is....

87s: 0.401403
87o: 0.367893

A7o will win considerably more often than 87s and 87o.

[Fnord]

Anyway what buy-in SnG was this and how did you finish?

I've been playing 20+2s and 12+1 shorts.

20+2 full

4 4 9 7 1 3 1 1 4 4 1

11 x 22 = 242

90 x 4 = 360
54 x 0 = 0
36 x 1 = 36

net +154

15+1 Turbo

1 x 16 = 16

67.50 x 1 = 67.50
40.50 x 0 = 0
27 x 0 = 0

net +51.50


12+1 6

12x 13 = 156

3 1 4 2 6 3 2 4 3 3 1 1

46.80 x 3 = 93.60
25.20 x 2 = 50.40

net -12

[Demiparadigm]

Are you consistently getting chips by picking up the blinds? As long as your stack is going up faster than the blinds are, don't call an all in from any player. If you lose, you lose your chips and are crippled, If you win the game jumps into agressive mode as everyone made it into the money and is now trying to get their stack up to win the tourney.

[melinda27]

of course A7o will win much more than 87, and i'd push with a7 long before i push with 87. If i absolutely have to call though i'd rather have 87 than a weak ace when my tournament isnt on the line.