final table hand...

[Sed]

3 table SnG down to final 7... top 5 get payed

blinds are 300/600 w/ 50 ante

I am the button with about 5200 (mid stacked for the table). Big stack is on the BB with 12,000 and has been abusing the table, betting hard on low flops and stealing pots with re-raises preflop.

Folded around to me so I raise to 1800 with my hoping the BB will come over me thinking it is a steal.

SB folds
BB calls

flop

BB puts me all in with a 3400 bet

What do you do and why.... This one took me deep into my time bank.

[vqc]

AH the stop and go.

2 cases
1) he has overcards, he sees the low board, and hes guessing u have overcards as well. He pushes.
2) He has an overpair, he sees the low board, realizes that you probably have overcards and he pushes.

If hes been abusing the table, I call, I think that my pile of crap is > his pile of crap.

Did he turn over 99? QQ doesnt seem to unpossible either, but I dont think he had it.

[HeavyP]

4200 in dead money and you have to call 3400. He's the Big stack and think you missed, I call here and hope for the best.

[iwa]

VQ I doubt the big stack turned over anything to that nature, just because he would have pushed it preflop with this playing style. The cards he has to have in his hand to beat you at this point in my opinion is any of the cards on the board. I would make the call, seeing his loose betting nature. Something else to think about sed, what is this stack thinking about you? What type of hand do you think he puts you on?

[gabe]

If you see him betting out then laying a hand down alot. But if he has been straightforward betting, i might be inclined to fold. Most of the time I would call.

[Sed]

My reasoning....

The table had just consolidated a circuit or two ago when he joined and he had not seen me show down anything. I had stolen 3-4 times and gotten caught by the SB pushing after me once. So he had no real idea of what I played.

I figured there was at least a 30% chance that he was full of crap. On the chance he actually hit something I have about 9 outs to catch either a higher pair or runner runner a flush. Add those up and thats better than a coinflip to win the hand. Being short stacked by folding would put me in a position where I would have to take a coinflip anyway while winning would put me deep in the money. So I called.

Just wanted to see if you guys agreed or if I was a numnut for thinking this way.

Results in white below:
He had 10 - 7 off and i got no love from the cards.

- sed

[Sed]

If you see him betting out then laying a hand down alot. But if he has been straightforward betting, i might be inclined to fold. Most of the time I would call.

he had been raising and then laying down when bet into occasionally.

[stuck]

this sort of play screams rags that flopped a pair. Or at least, that's the image I try to put out there when I make that play as the big stack

Tough call, either way.

[face]

I figured there was at least a 30% chance that he was full of crap. On the chance he actually hit something I have about 9 outs to catch either a higher pair or runner runner a flush. Add those up and thats better than a coinflip to win the hand.

First, the runner runner chance is not nearly equal to 3 outs -- 10/47 * 9/46 = 0.0416281221. This is closer to 1 additional out than 3. Therefore -- you probably have 7 clean outs to improve if he has a pair, or around a 28% chance. So, let's examine the possibilities. First, assign X as the probability of him having nothing (less than a pair), making (1-x) the chance of him having at least a pair.

If he has at least a pair, p(1-x):

He has 5 outs to improve to 2 pair or better, or about a 20% chance. However, there are rare instances where he will improve and you will still win (you improve with runner runner flush, 2 pair or trips). We already figured out the chance of runner runner flush, and runner runner 2 pair or better is about another 1% added on -- so about 5% of the time he improves, you will still win. This means his chance of improving to the winning hand, given that he has at least a pair on the flop, is about 19%.

If he doesn't improve -- 80% of the time -- you will win if you you hit your 7 outs. This will happen about 28% of the time. This means, if he has at least a pair on the flop and it doesn't improve by the river, he will still win about 58% of the time.

So, the total percentage of hands he will win, given that he has a pair on the flop, is about 77%.

If he doesn't have a hand after the flop, P(x):

He will improve 24% of the time to at least 1 pair by the river. Of those times he bluffs the flop, and still improves, you will also improve 28% of the time -- so he will only improve to win about 17% of the time given that he was bluffing on the flop. Obviously, if he was bluffing, and doesn't improve, you win, as you have the nuts high card.

So, the percentage of your losing here is approximately equal to (1-x)(.77) + (x)(.17), or the probability of him winning if he wasn't bluffing the flop and the probability of him sucking out even if he was bluffing the flop. (Conversely, P(you call and win) = 1 - ((1-x)(.77) + (x)(.17)). If you want to win more than 50% of the time, faced with this situation, you should have a read suggesting that he is bluffing more than 45% of the time, because if he bluffs less than 45% of the time here, he's the favorite.

Please correct any of my assumptions, math or reasoning if you see errors. I'm interested in this sort of question, and new to this sort of analysis. Thanks.

[Sed]

mental block on there... forgot I had one each of the ace and king

aaaaahh algebra. good analysis though, based on his play I could argue a 50% chance of a bluff.

If I was deeper stacked it would be an easier fold because I agree that there is a chance he hit his rags playing the loose big stack. The fact that the call was less than a pot sized bet and I was pretty low stacked if I folded with the possibility of being in control if I won.... I wanted to build a monster stack and take control but still don't know if this was the right play. Maybe I should have just pushed into him preflop.

- sed