Bubble Play Discussion

[ADWCTA]

After adopting a more tight/agressive style of play, I've been able to place at least 5th about 90% of the time (pretty good).

Here's where the problem is. When this happens and I'm low stacked (a bluff getting called or just got dealt crappy cards the entire way), I use the all in stratagy and it works pretty well to get me mid-stacked. However, I have fared very poorly playing midstacked in these situations. I finish 4th or 5th about 60% of the time and thus ITM only around 30%. (Placed 4th/5th 4 games in a row earlier with a decent sized stack, so that really got me thinking).

When you're mid stacked with 4-5 players left, how do you play? Here's some common situations, just wanted to get a feel of how other people would play this.

Scenario:
Players A is high stacked 20xBB
Player B has just about your stack, slightly more, nothing a bb loss wouldn't fix, around 8xBB
Players C, D each have about 4x BB
All players are actively alternating to steal blinds.
-------------------------------
Situation #1:
You're in mid position, go for a blinds steal with ATsuited with a 3xBB raise. Player A , from big blind position re-raises you all in. You know he loves his pocket pairs and has made this move in the past with a mid pocket pair. Do you take the coinflip or fold and lose half your stack?

Situation #2:
You're in dealer, go for a blinds steal with KTsuited. Player A, from big blind position calls. Flop is A76, rainbow. Player A checks to you. Player A is good (finishes ITM 40% of the time) and will not call with rags, he usually bets when he hits something, if he has nothinig he will not call you, however you've seen him downplay before. At this point, each of your stacks are about half the pot. What do you do? (If you raise any worthwhile amount, you'll be pot committed)

Situation #3:
You're BB, Player B from the Button makes a 3XBB bet. You have pocket 5s. When all folds to him and he's button, he's stolen your blinds about half the time. He could have soemthing good, or maybe just an ace. Do you re-raise him all in and take the coinflip? Do you call him and then push all in on the flop regardless? Do you fold and let him keep stealing your blinds?

Situation #4:
You're SB. Player A is sitting on BB. Player C, pushes all in (which is a 4x BB bet) from the button. You have pocket 8s. You're reads tell you Player C has two overcards on you. (Just assume you know this). Do you take this coinflip (Player A may have a monster)?

Situation #5:
You're BB. Player B, from early position, goes all in. Player C calls. Player D folds. Player A is BB. You're sitting on SB with pocket Js. Do you call?

Situation 1a - 5a will be the same as the above situations only Player D does not exist.

I know this is long, but I'm sure everyone gets stuck in these situations often and I'd really appreciate some pointers.

[arkana]

Here is my 2 cents:

Scenario:
Players A is high stacked 20xBB
Player B has just about your stack, slightly more, nothing a bb loss wouldn't fix, around 8xBB
Players C, D each have about 4x BB
All players are actively alternating to steal blinds.
-------------------------------
Situation #1:
You're in mid position, go for a blinds steal with ATsuited with a 3xBB raise. Player A , from big blind position re-raises you all in. You know he loves his pocket pairs and has made this move in the past with a mid pocket pair. Do you take the coinflip or fold and lose half your stack?

Dont steal the big stacks blinds for a start. If you do go this route you need to push all in. Since if he has any low pocket pair he might decide to push all in and put you to the difficult decision. You are currently in third chip position with players C and D in a push or fold situation. I would only try stealing from player B. If I have a decent hand I might put the small stacks all in and put them to a difficult decision but remember they are desperate so you dont want to do this with crappy cards since they are more likely to call you if they have anything decent.

Situation #2:
You're in dealer, go for a blinds steal with KTsuited. Player A, from big blind position calls. Flop is A76, rainbow. Player A checks to you. Player A is good (finishes ITM 40% of the time) and will not call with rags, he usually bets when he hits something, if he has nothinig he will not call you, however you've seen him downplay before. At this point, each of your stacks are about half the pot. What do you do? (If you raise any worthwhile amount, you'll be pot committed)

Stealing from the big stack again. Push or check (fold when he bets).

Situation #3:
You're BB, Player B from the Button makes a 3XBB bet. You have pocket 5s. When all folds to him and he's button, he's stolen your blinds about half the time. He could have soemthing good, or maybe just an ace. Do you re-raise him all in and take the coinflip? Do you call him and then push all in on the flop regardless? Do you fold and let him keep stealing your blinds?

Reraise him all in if you put him on a steal but keep in mind if he calls you are at best faced with a coinflip. So try it if you think hes capable of laying it down but some players will call even if they were stealing.

Situation #4:
You're SB. Player A is sitting on BB. Player C, pushes all in (which is a 4x BB bet) from the button. You have pocket 8s. You're reads tell you Player C has two overcards on you. (Just assume you know this). Do you take this coinflip (Player A may have a monster)?

I would suggest folding this since the BB still has to act and if you put C on two overcards you are faced with a coinflip which if you lose would make you the shortstack and if you win wouldnt put you in a much better position.

Situation #5:
You're BB. Player B, from early position, goes all in. Player C calls. Player D folds. Player A is BB. You're sitting on SB with pocket Js. Do you call?

Difficult one. Pocket Jacks are strong vs one opponent but with two opponents its a whole new ball game. I would probably call hoping that at least one of them is on a lower pocket pair. You are only scared of losing to B since that would put you out of the hand but if you lose to C and you still beat B you dont lose anything. I think this makes it a definite call. If you win the hand you are in a great position.

A general comment about this sort of scenario is that you want to pick a hand to double up with or wait for the small stacks to bust out.

[ADWCTA]

Thanks for the response. So you would a) never steal from big stack (does this apply if big stack is SB too?) and b) don't take coinflips.

I keep getting scared that with not taking a coinflip at this point, should Player C take Player D out (which happens rather frequently as they're the ones looking to double up the most) or vice versa, you're instantly faced with a three way tie for two spots. (and that's usually when large stack starts taking everyone's blinds and there's nothing you can do about it). And at that point you must either risk being 4th to steal blinds, or wait for someone to go out and end up 3rd or at best 2nd (if big stack takes the guy out).

[arkana]

I wouldnt steal from the big stack if he is an aggressive player (if he is I would rather raise his blind with a good hand hoping he reraises me). Remember big stacks arent afraid of busting out anymore. Very few players defend their SB aggressively so I wouldnt worry about that.

Its all about chip stacks relative to the blinds. Players with 4xBB are desperate so they are more likely to call. You want to go after the players with the medium stacks and\or the weak players since they are the guys afraid of busting out on the bubble.

Im not against taking coin flips but Id rather be the one pushing than the one calling. That way you also get the +EV from the times they fold ie putting a small stack all in with your pair of 6s is g00t, calling a someones all in with a pair of 6s while not being on the blinds is bad (according to me).

(Of course there are always exceptions so you should learn to adapt to the circumstances. I have encountered some very scared big stacks but this is quite rare).

[DWDuck]

My $0.02:

Situation #1:
You're in mid position, go for a blinds steal with ATsuited with a 3xBB raise. Player A , from big blind position re-raises you all in. You know he loves his pocket pairs and has made this move in the past with a mid pocket pair. Do you take the coinflip or fold and lose half your stack?

I agree with arkana on this one. If you're going to raise, push all in. 3xBB doesn't worry the big stack too much, and he'll put you on a decision for all your chips. I'd either fold or push here. Personally... getting something like AT this late in the game makes me tend towards pushing. The BB doesn't want to double you up and make you chip lead. He'll only call with something... but odds are you have him beat.

Situation #2:
You're in dealer, go for a blinds steal with KTsuited. Player A, from big blind position calls. Flop is A76, rainbow. Player A checks to you. Player A is good (finishes ITM 40% of the time) and will not call with rags, he usually bets when he hits something, if he has nothinig he will not call you, however you've seen him downplay before. At this point, each of your stacks are about half the pot. What do you do? (If you raise any worthwhile amount, you'll be pot committed)

Same as situation 1. I'm pushing preflop with this. Even postflop I'm probably pushing now. You're down to 5XBB, and you'll be BB next, so suddenly you're small stack. Rep the A... chances are he doesn't have it.

Situation #3:
You're BB, Player B from the Button makes a 3XBB bet. You have pocket 5s. When all folds to him and he's button, he's stolen your blinds about half the time. He could have soemthing good, or maybe just an ace. Do you re-raise him all in and take the coinflip? Do you call him and then push all in on the flop regardless? Do you fold and let him keep stealing your blinds?

I push here. Chances are you're just better than a coinflip to win if he calls. Add to that the chances that he folds, and you've got great odds. I find at this stage in an SNG you have to put players on decisions for the rest of their chips. People tend to get fold-happy on the bubble, so in this case I think you take advantage of that.

Situation #4:
You're SB. Player A is sitting on BB. Player C, pushes all in (which is a 4x BB bet) from the button. You have pocket 8s. You're reads tell you Player C has two overcards on you. (Just assume you know this). Do you take this coinflip (Player A may have a monster)?

Push. I'm not too worried about player A here. My move here is either fold or push... a push would likely get A out. I have a problem with your "read" here though. Player C is desperate..... he could have any two cards. Either way though, I push. I'm gunning for first in this situation, and have better than 50/50 odds of winning this hand. Even if you lose you are button on the next deal, and player B is gonna be smaller than you.

Try an EV calculation on this one. Suppose you push and lose... we'll give you a 50/50 chance of getting third place. I'll assume this is a $10+1 SNG, paying you $20 for third. If you win... we'll give you a 25% chance for first ($50), 50% chance for second ($30), and 25% chance for 3rd (sound reasonable?). Let's assume further that if you fold, you have a 50% chance at second, and 20% chance at third. Since he has overcards, you're 55% to win. I'll also assume for simplicity that if you push, A folds. If you don't like this... the calculation changes:

EV(push) = 0.55*($50*0.2 + $30*0.5 + $20*0.3) + 0.45($20*0.5)= $22.4
EV(fold) = 0.5*30 + 0.2*20 = 19.

I think it's pretty clear (if you like my assumptions) that pushing is the answer here.

Situation #5:
You're BB. Player B, from early position, goes all in. Player C calls. Player D folds. Player A is BB. You're sitting on SB with pocket Js. Do you call?

Tough one. Try a calculation like the one I did above... although it really depends on what you put these players on. I tend to put each on a high card. If I thought they both had Ax, I call.... it's tough to have a read THAT good though. I don't know if it's right, but I couldn't lay down this chance to gun for first... I like my heads-up play, so winning this pot would put me even with the big stack, and would give me a great chance to win.

I guess it's obvious from my answers.... I tend towards aggression on the bubble. Players seem to tighten up and get fold-happy here, and it's a great time to pick up chips and run for first. I'll give up a few % in ITM to increase my ROR.... Put players on a decision for all their chips, and you'll pick up a few on the way.

Darkwing

[ADWCTA]

Just went from chip lead (5 players left) to 5th place.

Anything I do wrong here?

#Game No : 2000725899
***** Hand History for Game 2000725899 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:11923104 Level:5 Blinds(100/200) - Wednesday, May 04, 23:16:05 EDT 2005
Table Table 15034 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: caretaker1 ( $1510 )
Seat 9: ADWCTA ( $2575 )
Seat 1: Captainron1 ( $710 )
Seat 8: krullebol ( $2185 )
Seat 5: DaaaaaaBulls ( $1020 )
Trny:11923104 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ADWCTA [ Ad Tc ]
krullebol folds.
ADWCTA raises [500].
Captainron1 is all-In [710]
caretaker1 folds.
DaaaaaaBulls folds.
ADWCTA calls [210].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 3c, 5c, Kd ]
** Dealing Turn ** [ 8d ]
** Dealing River ** [ Kc ]
ADWCTA shows [ Ad, Tc ] a pair of kings.
Captainron1 shows [ Kh, Jh ] three of a kind, kings.
Captainron1 wins 1720 chips from the main pot with three of a kind, kings.
Game #2000731064 starts.

I put him on KQ when he re-raised me all in, pretty sure it was going to be a coinflip. I've been stealing blinds a lot so they probobly thought I had shit. But this time it bit me in the ass.
.
.
.

#Game No : 2000739701
***** Hand History for Game 2000739701 *****
NL Hold'em $20 Buy-in + $2 Entry Fee Trny:11923104 Level:5 Blinds(100/200) - Wednesday, May 04, 23:18:20 EDT 2005
Table Table 15034 (Real Money)
Seat 1 is the button
Total number of players : 5
Seat 2: caretaker1 ( $1210 )
Seat 9: ADWCTA ( $1865 )
Seat 1: Captainron1 ( $1420 )
Seat 8: krullebol ( $2785 )
Seat 5: DaaaaaaBulls ( $720 )
Trny:11923104 Level:5
Blinds(100/200)
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to ADWCTA [ 3c 3d ]
krullebol: jezus..
krullebol: no one calls....
krullebol folds.
ADWCTA raises [720]. (I was aiming for daaabulls... hence the exact bet)
Captainron1 folds.
krullebol: yeas
caretaker1 is all-In [1110]
DaaaaaaBulls folds.
ADWCTA calls [490].
** Dealing Flop ** [ Qc, 9c, 4d ]
krullebol: action.!!!
** Dealing Turn ** [ Kc ]
** Dealing River ** [ 2s ]
ADWCTA shows [ 3c, 3d ] a pair of threes.
caretaker1 shows [ Qh, Ah ] a pair of queens.
caretaker1 wins 2620 chips from the main pot with a pair of queens.
::sigh::
Game #2000743765 starts.

Another coinflip, lost.
.
.
.

It's really going to come down to this bubble play to be ITM. If I just sat there and waited for premium hands, I'm sure I would have been ITM (probobly no shot at 1st, but ITM). If I'm pushing people around, I'll be pot committed enough to be taking coinflips. I lose two coinflips, I'm out. (25%), not to mention the possibility of one of them having a hand that dominates mine. Still take the coinflips?

[DWDuck]

Tough breaks those... I think you did fine here and just got bad luck. Imagine this exact same scenario (as far as position and your cards go) done over a million times. Most times they won't have anything to call with, occasionally they will and it'll be a coin flip, and occasionally (but rarely) they'll have you dominated. Although this particular situation resulted in coinflips (which favoured you by a bit) and you lost them both, longterm your success is there since the fold potential brings you far above 50%.

Darkwing

[ADWCTA]

blah, yeah you're right, but my bankroll can't take that many hits like that

So after sitting tight for the first 14 hands (made one preflop raise with AJ, 4 callers, nothing hit, someone bet, i folded) and being just generally very tight, I made a preflop raise of 3x BB with pocket Ks after player A calls. Blinds fold, player A calls me. Flop is A,9,2, rainbow. Pot is 220ish. Player A checks to me, I bet 150. (my table image is super tight at this point, and I'm pretty sure unless he's downplaying the A, I can pull off this bluff). He re-raises me to 300 (at this point I had 400 chips left so that would pretty much commit me to the pot... he had about 500 chips left after his bet so he's not in the best position himself). I fold as there's no reason for him to think I'm bluffing or counterbluff. He shows 2,3. He also places ITM 40% so he's not just a retarded player. How the hell????? (I think for 10 seconds exactly whenever I'm going to do anything, besides preflop folds, so there's no way to read me that way).

Do you do this? How the hell do you pull it off? (what situation...) All pointers point to me having an ace, and a re-raise would commit him so that the value of the pot was not worth the risk of the re-raise. You can have the best poker instincts in the world, but I was giving zero tells... btw, this has happened to me before done by different players so what gives?

Game pretty much went downhill after that...

[face]

Yeah, it's risky, but if he's a decent player and sees you get involved in your first pot at the table, he's going to think you're a rock. Given your preflop raise, you might have a high ace, maybe KQs or a premium pair AA, KK, QQ or even JJ. He probably also knows if you don't have AK or AQ or AA, you won't be able to (or won't, because you're a tight player and radically short-stacked) call his checkraise. Given that he's already shortstacked, he might have thought he had to make a play at this pot, and if you only have an ace here slightly less than half the time, it might be a decent move. However, I agree that there's not much in the pot to justify your whole tournament life. One way to deal with getting bluffed is bet the whole pot -- you're repping TPTK here, after all, and 150 looks scared to some people. It's more rational to be reckless against people you know are camping.

[ADWCTA]

Just placed second again in a SnG (didn't even get to HU, two players went all in before me, I was middle stack, figured I had at least one of them and didn't want little stack to catch up, so I joined the fray. First won, I was second). But that's not the point..

Anyway, another "pro" 42% ITM, re-raised me in the early game! This is about hand #9, I haven't seen a flop yet. KK comes, he raises from 15 to 50 before me, I re-raise him to 150, he calls. Flop comes out JQ5 rainbow. He checks, I wanted to seal the deal so I threw out a 75% pot sized bet of 200. He RERAISES me min. (which pot commits him) I push him all him, he was holding JKo. Now, I'm upset because he caught another J on the river, but do I have a sign on my forehead before the game even starts that says "I like to buy pots on flop if you check to me?" He's good! That was a horrible play on his part. Why check into me with middle pair if he was only going to re-raise me? The only hand a tight player would re-raise him preflop, from early position, that he had beat was AK. Every other premium hand that warrants a preflop re-raise from early position (he was first to act, I was second to act) had him dominated. ::mutters:: How can ppl play like that and still have 42% ITM, and I'm stuck at 30%...

sorry, just had to rant about that. why do pros re-raise you with crap before they can get a read on you anyway?

[megadeath]

hey just curious, how do you know all these peoples %ITM for the sngs? is there a program? and if there is do u play on pokerstars?

[vqc]

im assuming he uses poker prophecy, just to warn you, poker prophecy doesnt do too good of a job keeping track of SNGs yet. It either really realyl overinflates or undercuts the actualy ITM and ROI. Not very goot yet.