Unbelievably wonderful read & outcome

[dalecooper]

Annotated for drama.

***** Hand History for Game 2058496667 *****
$50 NL Hold'em - Monday, May 16, 15:11:33 EDT 2005
Table Table 36884 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 5 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: raiseme_nc ( $6.1 )
Seat 2: TunaNY13 ( $62.49 )
Seat 4: Keno_66 ( $136.87 )
Seat 6: stressball10 ( $48.9 )
Seat 3: Warrior2323 ( $36.08 )
Seat 5: Geddy86 ( $13.3 )
stressball10 posts small blind [$0.25].
raiseme_nc posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to stressball10 [ Qs Qd ]
TunaNY13 calls [$0.5].
Warrior2323 raises [$1].
Keno_66 folds.
Geddy86 calls [$1].
stressball10 raises [$2.75]. - obviously I want to put in a re-raise here; I was thinking this was a solid amount to get maybe one or two callers.
raiseme_nc folds.
TunaNY13 folds.
Warrior2323 calls [$2].
Geddy86 is all-In [$12.3] - oops. Short stacks are prone to this kind of crap though, no way I fold to the re-raise. At this point I'm putting him on a middle pair or high cards.
stressball10 calls [$10.3].
Warrior2323 calls [$10.3]. - good sign. He called but didn't go over the top to try to force me out of the pot. He doesn't have kings or aces. He also didn't re-re-raise me before, so I should be in good shape against these two.

** Dealing Flop ** [ 5c, 4c, 3c ]
stressball10 checks. - fuckity fuck fuck. What a great flop for my hand. I am hopeful that me and this other guy can just check it down.
Warrior2323 is all-In [$22.78] - guess we can't. What do I do now? The pot is already huge, close to $40... I'm getting like 3-1 on this call. I have an overpair, I don't have anyone else on a pair higher than mine. I don't think anyone made the straight. Except for that flush, I'm not that scared. Right? Could one of them have a low set? I have no post-flop read on the short stack... I only have this one bet from the other guy, which is aggressive enough, but still only half the pot approximately. Would he go all in with a high club? Maybe he just has the ace of clubs?

Sigh. Time to take a chance on my read...
stressball10 calls [$22.78].
** Dealing Turn ** [ Td ]
** Dealing River ** [ 6d ]
stressball10 shows [ Qs, Qd ] a pair of queens.
Warrior2323 doesn't show [ Ac, Jh ] high card ace.
Geddy86 doesn't show [ Qh, Ks ] high card king.
stressball10 wins $45.56 from side pot #1 with a pair of queens.
stressball10 wins $38.9 from the main pot with a pair of queens.

...And that right there is how 1/3 of the 6 max table gets broke on a single hand.

[dalecooper]

Interesting post-script: the ace of clubs was actually a favorite over me after the flop. His gutshot + flush draw +overcard makes him a winner 55% of the time after that flop. How strange that I could be "ahead" but actually behind. I still had good pot odds to call with a 35% chance to win the hand though. Once the Td comes off on the turn, I go back to a 60-40 favorite vs. the two of them. Pre-flop it was about 50-50, me vs. the two of them.

[drmcboy]

I like your play, you can't imagine he is in the pot with sutied connectors, so if he flopped flush it would almost sure be Ax clubds, you'd think he would let you bet.

Only thing that bothers me is your instinct to check down when the clubs hit, I think if he hadn't moved in you have to make some sort of bet just in case he's in their with a PP with one club. As you said, there is no reason to think he has KK or AA.

[dalecooper]

I like your play, you can't imagine he is in the pot with sutied connectors, so if he flopped flush it would almost sure be Ax clubds, you'd think he would let you bet.

Only thing that bothers me is your instinct to check down when the clubs hit, I think if he hadn't moved in you have to make some sort of bet just in case he's in their with a PP with one club. As you said, there is no reason to think he has KK or AA.

I think I do that at times when one opponent is all-in pre-flop and the board comes out scary. Basically it's a signal to my shorter-stacked opponent: this doesn't have to turn into an ugly side pot situation. It comes from tournament play I guess - with a dry side pot and a scary flop, why duke it out with this guy? Particularly when we have the chance to bust the other guy without any further bets (there's the tournament thinking). I don't know - I think you're right that I should lead out there, though. That was the only move in the hand that I didn't really think over carefully.

[SmackinYaUp]

Nicely played...I think. Shortstacks always mix things up and they end up getting a couple bigger stacks goin at it because its a big pot.

Monotone boards sure look scary, but I think both you and your opponent played the hand good.

Would anyone consider re-raising allin to keep it 1 vs 1? Or is that a losing play since it just gets called by better hands? If you would have re-raised allin, the pot would probably have been a lot smaller but less risky.

Its just scary that after 1 other player called a raise and a reraise you are going to cold call the $10 allin. This reopens the pot for re-reraises. What if the other guy went ahead and pushed?

Anyways, I am just curious. It looks like you played it good because if the other guy had anything better than you, I think he would have let you know by now.

[dalecooper]

My feeling was that he was likely to fold to the big raise without me having to push, but if he did call he was likely behind me and I was getting good value on my hand. I don't know if that's good or bad thinking. I'm more likely to win the pot by raising there, but if my read on him as having a couple of face cards is correct, I'm better off keeping him in the hand. I figured I was about 50% to win against two random hands that were both high cards, or one set of high cards and one lower pair; I'll take those odds to the flop any day.

[SmackinYaUp]

Makes sense to me. Looks like you thought it out clearly and got maximum value.