When do you push with A-X?

[KY_Ace]

24 out of 319 players left at 3 tables I just lost 4 BBs to someone calling my 4xBB steal raise with Q5o for all their chips(I was stealing with KTs) I am down to 12 BBs now i get AT i raise 3xBB i get called by the chip leader in the SB flop = QQ6 he bets 1/2 my chips(probably re-stealing) but i chickened out and folded. I get rags for a few hands and then I get A5o UTG (8 players) with 9 BBs left I think I have to push or fold, so I push. QQ calls me no ace 24th $12. BTW 1st =$399. My reasoning went like this: If they fold great, if i get called and win I'll have 19.5 BBs, or I'll lose. If I wait 'til after my blinds I'll be down to 7.5 BBs and then if I double through I'll only have 15 BBs, so better to double through early, and I might not get another decent heads up hand. Should I have been more patient?

[LeFou]

Yeah. Axo is a sucker push unless you're really desperate (3-6 BB). So many hands are better than that, and you'll very likely get one this round.

'Course if you don't, then well you don't.

[Schmitty]

I was going to post a similar question. I had about 9BBs left and pushed in the SB with A6s hoping to steal, and if he did call maybe i would be a favorite. Called with JTo to bust me out. I was wondering if that was the best play.

[ADWCTA]

i think it depends on average stack size.

I'd steal with Ax from any position anytime if I had less than 6x BB and average stack size more than doubles me.

Otherwise, I treat Ax like rags. They're worthless versus Ax and PP. Which means the only calling hands (9x BB is a decent amount and no one'll call you with sub-par hands like K7) where you won't be dominated are KQ, KJ, KT, and QJ. So basically, if you're called, you're screwed.

9x BB with semi-full table (MTT rite?)... I wouldn't be too worried yet. Chances are you'll hit a AK-AT,PP, or KQ-KJ before you're down to 6xBB. And if not, you'll still move up a couple spots from just waiting around (and maybe hit the next level of payoff).

Your chances for doubling up on Ax when you raise preflop is vew low. However, if the table's climate is that no one defends thier blinds... you could give it a shot (but I'd rather all in with 27s than A5o if I'm looking to double up)...

[Bmxicle]

It also depends on the stakes, in a 3 dollar tourney, when i'm getting desperate, i'll push A10 every time because so many people will call w/ Ax. In a 20 dollar tourney i'm much more likely to choose something that wont be dominated or try to wait it out for a decent hand.

[KY_Ace]

Thanx for the advice Guys. When I get short stacked and have to push I feel like I'm playing rock, paper, scissors. If I get called by JJ I'm better off with KQ than AJ, but if I get called by AT I'd much rather have AJ than KQ. I used to think A-X was good heads up because you can win with ace high against an average hand that does not improve. After much thought I've realized that this only applies in situations where your opponent is forced to play a random hand i.e. almost all-in in the BB. The important thing when you have eneugh chips to make a meaningfull raise is how well your hand will fair against a hand powerfull eneugh to call that raise i.e. AK, AQ, big PPs, the smaller your stack the longer the list of hands that can call you. The problem I've found with A-Xo is that you're a slight favorite to KQo (EV = 0.580 from www.twodimes.net ), a heavy underdog to AK,AQ etc. (A5o vs AKo: EV = 0.278!!), a heavy underdog to any PP higher than your X (A5o vs TT: EV = 0.297) and any PP smaller than your X folds.

As an experiment I've done a weighted average of the EV that A5o has against the only hands likely to call a 9xBB raise UTG 8 handed, I've included the following hands with the weights determinded by their relative probabilities when my cards are removed: 3xAA,6xKK,6xQQ,6xJJ,6xTT,6x99,9xAKo,3xAKs,9xAQo,3x AQs,9xAJo,3xAJs,3xATs,12xKQo,4xKQs,4xKJs,4xQJs. My results: A5o vs. the above hands: EV = 0.350 YUCK!! %65 chance of elimination if I get called!! All to steal 1.5 BBs. You're right LeFou A-Xo is a sucker push!! Given these requirements(96 combinations out of 1225) and 7 players yet to act I will have a 0.565 chance of a successfull steal ( (1225-96/1225)^7 ) making 1.5 BBs, I have a 0.152 chance of getting called and winning making 9.5-10.5 BBs, I have a 0.283 chance of getting called and losing, losing 9BBs and busting out, for an overall EV of roughly -0.15BBs. This is a huge risk with a negative reward! I'm going to try this experiment with some other marginal push hands i.e. 88, KQs etc. 27s for ADWCTA , which I'm guessing will beat A5o because it won't be dominated so often. I'll post the results in a new topic on probabilities. Thanks for the help Guys

Schmitty, I think your play was alot better than mine because you were heads up, you are much less likely to get called, in the long run you will make alot more in steals and getting called and winning than you will lose when you get called and lose, as annoying as this may be when it happens. In this case you had the best of it too (A6s vs TJo: EV = 0.569 from www.twodimes.net ). Being suited usually adds %2-%3 to your wins.

[DBL0SVN]

Your math is spot on - pushing with Ax is a bad idea here. But in this situation, other factors are more important - position, signs of weakness from other players, stack sizes of people in the pot or yet to play, position, your reads on other players and did I mention position?

You'd better have a great hand if you push UTG since you have to force 9 others to fold - as you worked out, if they call, they probably have a good hand. Sitting on the button or CO, you only have to get 2 or 3 people to fold. Since you're weighing in with 9BB, you could push anything in late position - as long as noone else has entered the pot before you - and steal the blinds.

So basically, push with almost anything in late position if there is weakness, especially if you have tighties to your left. In early position, save the pushes for your premium hands.

[ADWCTA]

yep, I like to push with KJ, KT, K9 in early position if I'm looking to double up because only 6,7,8 hands dominate KJ, KT, K9 (and 4,5,6 of them are pocket pairs [AA-99] which players have a lower chance of getting).

In this situation, if I'm getting called, I'm guarenteed a higher % of coinflips than dominated hands.

and yeah, position is all important. If you're in dealer position and all folds to you, just about any hand is a good hand to steal with. (I have a thing, where I will steal blinds from dealer or dealer - 1 position if all folds to me, I have any suited hand or unsuited without a spade, and the blinds are not crazy callers).

[TLR]

stealing with A5o from early position is a total depsration move, and I do not think you were that desperate.

I would have waited for a better hand, and if nothing comes to you try to steal with almost anything from CO or button if it is folded to you.

[Rondavu]

When you get shortstacked, it's not the best plan to push with an easily dominated hand. Too many people think this way. I would push a hand like 89 suited before A3 offsuit. Your plan on a short stack is to find yourself in a heads up race where you have at least a 40% coin flip.

[Pingviini]

9BB is still plenty of chips, do not risk your tournament life pushing A5o UTG. If you were on CO or OTB you could make easily make a steal with the cards (or with any two cards ) but now you have 2 options IMO. you can either fold or if you think your table respects your PFR's you can make 2.5-3bb raise from UTG hoping that they fold. This TOTALLY depends on the table and your image.