How not to play bottom set vs. an aggressive player

[dalecooper]

***** Hand History for Game 2098099450 *****
$50 NL Hold'em - Tuesday, May 24, 12:00:15 EDT 2005
Table Table 36813 (6 max) (Real Money)
Seat 6 is the button
Total number of players : 6
Seat 1: goingbroke4u ( $59.4 )
Seat 3: Jockanio ( $40.8 )
Seat 4: xFeebleminDx ( $49.8 )
Seat 5: Pokerbunny88 ( $53.98 )
Seat 6: stressball10 ( $59.7 )
Seat 2: Dirty_Bird_2 ( $14.2 )
goingbroke4u posts small blind [$0.25].
Jockanio posts big blind [$0.5].
** Dealing down cards **
Dealt to stressball10 [ Jc Qc ]
xFeebleminDx folds.
Pokerbunny88 folds.
stressball10 raises [$2].
goingbroke4u folds.
Jockanio calls [$1.5].
** Dealing Flop ** [ 9c, Kd, 2c ]
Jockanio checks.
stressball10 bets [$3].
Jockanio calls [$3].
** Dealing Turn ** [ 5d ]
Jockanio checks.
stressball10 bets [$7].
Jockanio calls [$7].
** Dealing River ** [ Ac ]
Jockanio bets [$10].
stressball10 raises [$20].
Jockanio calls [$10].
stressball10 shows [ Jc, Qc ] a flush, ace high.
Jockanio doesn't show [ 2d, 2h ] three of a kind, twos.
stressball10 wins $62.25 from the main pot with a flush, ace high.

[a500lbgorilla]

AI on the river.

-'rilla

[dalecooper]

AI on the river.

-'rilla

You think so? My feeling was that he was repping the flush but probably didn't have it (or if he did, it was a low flush), so I was trying to make a raise he might actually call with a modest hand - pair of aces/pair of kings/two pair/low flush. I felt like he wasn't all that likely to call if I shoved all-in for a huge re-raise on an obvious flush board. My feeling was that he had something like A9 or Kx, or two low clubs. If he had the flush too he'd call about any raise, probably, but with the other hands he might have (including his surprise actual holdings, trip deuces) he'd probably fold.

[jmrogers7]

He probably did not put you on a flush draw since you did the right thing and bet the draw. Your play of that hand screams AK. It looks like you hit top pair and was betting to fold out any flush draws. Especially the turn bet.

I concur with 'rilla here that you should've pushed on the river. Given what you were representing in that hand I don't think there is any way he throws away a set. Given his $10 bet on the river, he wasn't buying that you had a flush.

[dalecooper]

I didn't consider that (his read on my hand at the end)... interesting perspective. I still wonder though if he calls even if he DOESN'T think I have the flush? Obviously with his trips he would call if he thought I had AK, but if he were somewhere else in the range of hands I mentioned? Let's see:

- pair of kings or pair of aces almost certainly folds
- two pair (say aces and nines) may call
- a low flush definitely calls

vs. the $10 raise, which basically any of the above hands calls.

I think there might be a sweet spot here for a better raise than mine, but something short of pushing all-in - which is going to chase off action from a lot of hands that aren't trip twos, and might even chase off the twos if he concludes I did somehow make that flush. Maybe a $15 or $20 raise? Bear in mind if I go all-in here, it's like a $38 raise on a $35 pot (including his $10 bet). I don't know if he's going to call that with anything other than the made flush, and since I didn't read him as having the flush I thought it was ill-advised.

Edit: I didn't take his stack into consideration. Me going all-in would actually only be about a $20 raise to him since that's all he has left. So I think you guys are right, I should have pushed here and taken his stack. Or rather, I should have bet enough to put him all in (I think there's something psychologically daunting about pushing all-in with a big stack, even when he only can call half the amount). Thanks for the feedback on this one - this was a hand I was feeling very satsified about at the time, but now I think there was definitely more money to be made here.

[jmrogers7]

After looking at this again, perhaps I should re-phrase and say that you should have pushed HIM allin on the river. It looks like you left him with $8.80 after that hand was over. I think it is +EV here to make that river raise to $28.80 (or $29) and put him allin.

I firmly believe that if he was willing to bet out $10 on the river and then call your $10 raise he would most definitely call the additional $8.80 here regardless of his holdings. The key to me is his $10 bet out on the river.

[a500lbgorilla]

{Moved from HHH}

-'rilla

[SmackinYaUp]

Maybe, maybe not push, but definitely make it more than a minraise - anything has to call that. Make it a tough one for him.