How would you play this AK on the bubble?

[digitaldoc]

Late in rebuy madness on Poker Stars. You're on the bubble. OU Fan28 has been very LAG player even on the bubble. Built most of his stack very late with apparent steals and pure aggressive play. Everyone else was folding to 3-4xBB preflop raises. We saw 1 flop in the past 17 hands dealt.

How would you play it?



PokerStars Game #1835617426: Tournament #8387538, Hold'em No Limit - Level XIII (1500/3000) - 2005/06/05 - 01:45:35 (ET)
Table '8387538 118' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: OU Fan28 (34033 in chips)
Seat 2: 0120 (37954 in chips)
Seat 3: Purr Of Aces (25030 in chips)
Seat 4: SmartyGL (30993 in chips)
Seat 5: AKA-The Wolf (25434 in chips)
Seat 6: crapsplayer (66466 in chips)
Seat 7: nomey (33405 in chips)
Seat 8: Meatball20 (57916 in chips)
Seat 9: digitaldoc2 (24421 in chips)
OU Fan28: posts the ante 150
0120: posts the ante 150
Purr Of Aces: posts the ante 150
SmartyGL: posts the ante 150
AKA-The Wolf: posts the ante 150
crapsplayer: posts the ante 150
nomey: posts the ante 150
Meatball20: posts the ante 150
digitaldoc2: posts the ante 150
0120: posts small blind 1500
Purr Of Aces: posts big blind 3000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to digitaldoc2 [Kh As]
SmartyGL: folds
AKA-The Wolf: folds
crapsplayer: folds
nomey: folds
Meatball20: folds
digitaldoc2: raises 9000 to 12000
OU Fan28: calls 12000
0120: folds
Purr Of Aces: folds
*** FLOP *** [Jh 3d 7d]
digitaldoc2: bets 12271 and is all-in
OU Fan28: calls 12271
*** TURN *** [Jh 3d 7d] [6c]
*** RIVER *** [Jh 3d 7d 6c] [2d]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
digitaldoc2: shows [Kh As] (high card Ace)
OU Fan28: shows [Jd Ad] (a flush, Ace high)
OU Fan28 collected 54392 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 54392 | Rake 0
Board [Jh 3d 7d 6c 2d]
Seat 1: OU Fan28 (button) showed [Jd Ad] and won (54392) with a flush, Ace high
Seat 2: 0120 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: Purr Of Aces (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 4: SmartyGL folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: AKA-The Wolf folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: crapsplayer folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: nomey folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 8: Meatball20 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 9: digitaldoc2 showed [Kh As] and lost with high card Ace

[Sykedupp]

I dont like pushing an unimproved AK, especially against a LAgg, you're likely to get called, and if he hit ANYTHING (which is possible for some LAggs) he has you PWNED. Either push it preflop or check/fold that flop, and wait until you have more then A high

-Chris

[vqc]

Why dont you push preflop instead of potentilaly allowing a lag player into the flop?

[DimitriT]

From experience, the majority of AI after the flop fail for me if I don't at least have top pair (either in the hole or with the board). Think about the risk/reward:

1. opp didn't connect: you get a fold and win 12000
2. opp did connect: you get a call and lose 24000

So you are laying 2 to 1 odds against and have no information on the
opp's hand.

This looks like a bad deal to me. These are times when you have to accept
that AK has lost some of its potential and back off.

[homerdash]

Yeah, you're putting half your stack in preflop. Might as well put the whole thing in there. You definitely want to see all 5 cards.

[digitaldoc]

It's funny how things look totally different the next day. I remember thinking what a great hand to try and steal with. Wasn't even thinking about playing it. So I raised pre-flop a standard 3-4xBB raise and then I got called. Then I realized half my chips were in the pot and should have pushed all in preflop. After all, I was just trying to steal. So I figured might as well try the continuation bet and hope he didn't have the Jack.

What I leanred upon reviewing my hand history this morning was, don't switch tactics mid-stream trying to correct a poor play. Give it up and wait for another chance.

Either I should have:

1.) Pushed all in pre-flop on a steal attempt.

- or -

2.) After he called and flop missed me, just checked / fold. It was after all a steal attempt. Fold it let one more person go out and make it ITM and look for two more cards to put all my chips in.

Certainly appreciate any thoughts you might have on this.

[gabe]

you must go allin preflop. i would only raise 3bb here if i had AA or KK.

[vqc]

It's funny how things look totally different the next day. I remember thinking what a great hand to try and steal with. Wasn't even thinking about playing it. So I raised pre-flop a standard 3-4xBB raise and then I got called. Then I realized half my chips were in the pot and should have pushed all in preflop. After all, I was just trying to steal. So I figured might as well try the continuation bet and hope he didn't have the Jack.

What I leanred upon reviewing my hand history this morning was, don't switch tactics mid-stream trying to correct a poor play. Give it up and wait for another chance.

Either I should have:

1.) Pushed all in pre-flop on a steal attempt.

- or -

2.) After he called and flop missed me, just checked / fold. It was after all a steal attempt. Fold it let one more person go out and make it ITM and look for two more cards to put all my chips in.

Certainly appreciate any thoughts you might have on this.

One thing iv learned is that sometimes, its ok to NOT rep the flop when ur stealing.

About swtiching tactics half way. In HoH harrington states that no matter how questionable ur play might have been earlier in a hand, you have to reevaluate your play based on current conditions. Ur mistake was no pushing pf, but now the question is, on the flop whats ur best play? Realistcally YOu have 4xBB. You are gone in 4 hands.

What do you think the best hand you will get in the next 4 hands is? A5s +. Do you want to be pushing with A5s? I havnt done the calculations but, what do you have a better chance picking up some chips with? Pushing into a pot that you pfr, or pusing with A5s? That is the question. To tell you the truth, pushing an AK unimporved against a LAG player is starting to seem a lot more attrative than pushing A5s pf where I kno any caller will have be absoltely pwned.