For those of you who wont watch my SNG vids. An AKs hand.

[vqc]

Bodog 5.50

on the bubble

stacks sizes (with 300 in the pot from the blinds)
4410
2950 (BUTTON)
1210
1130 (ME after putting in 200 as the BB)

UTG folds
Button raises to 1240 (1040 more)
SB calls (Now has 70 left)
I have AK hearts, its either push or fold.

what do you do.

I have it completely mathematically thought out, and I will post it after I get some thoughts from all of you.

You might as well assume that everyone is all in preflop, becuase either way were going all in on the flop.

[SnoT_III]

I don't think it's much of a question of what to do, unless you have some serious reads that the raiser is a mouse and only raises that much with high pockets. I think most of the time you will be going against hands like QK or Ax and the guy pushing was trying to steal your blinds.
Pockets are another issue, but only having 6x bb I would probably take my chances with a coin toss to double up, unless you really like getting 3rd place.

[SnoT_III]

Ohh the other thing I would think about is how loose the player behind you is. If you are pretty sure he is going to call with a marginal hand then I would reconsider calling since you are about to be itm.

[allLiving]

Do all the math equations you want, this is an obvious push.

[vqc]

Why is it so obvious?

[ensign_lee]

This is an obvious push, I'm sorry. The button should be trying to steal. SB thinks "now's it" and might have you owned, but probably not. I'd put him on AQ or something like that. Smaller pockets? Well hell...do you really think you're going to get a hand much better than AK suited anytime soon where other people are willing to run with you? Go for the gold, man. You're in here to win the top prize, not to PLACE.

Push all in.

[vqc]

THIS HAND ASSUMES THAT THE OTHER SMALL STACK PUSHES PREFLOP AS WELL. This is done becuase after the pf call, he only has 70 chips, so I Assume that if I push he will push as well.

I used the ICM calculator found at http://www.bol.ucla.edu/~sharnett/ICM/info.html

What the ICM calculator does is it calculates your equity of the prize money based on your chip stack and everyone elses chip stack.

Here are the numbers:

Stacks before the hand (300 in pot)
4410
2950
1210
1130 My pot equity is at 0.1611 before the hand occurs

IF I FOLD AND THE GUY GETS KNOCKED OUT
Chip stacks would be at
4410
4460
1130 My money equity is at .2519

IF I FOLD AND THE GUY WINS THE RACE
4410
1640
2820
1130 My money equity is at .1527

IF I GO ALL IN AND I WIN And the other short stack stays in.
4410
1740
160
3690 My money Equity is at .3443

IF I GO ALL IN AND I WIN and the other short stack gets knocked out
4410
1900
3690 My money Equity is at .3485

IF I GO ALL IN AND I LOSE
my money equity is at 0

IF I PUSH AND I TIE with the big stack but the small stack busts or the small stack stays in.
(i dont want to calculate it out. Trust me it makes veyr little difference in the final calculation becuz the chances of tieing are miniscule)


My Odds of winning against 2 other RANDOM HANDS (The two pushers wont actually have 2 random hands, therefore the actual % would be lower)
Poker stove
.48

The calculation goes as follows
%win x %equity if win + %lose X %equity if lose + %tie X %equity if tie
.48 X .3460 (its an average of the 2 wins) + .52 X 0 + .01 X .3460(it doesnt really matter butlets pretend its SUPER HIGH)
My equity of the money if I go all in is .17472 + 0 + 0.00364 = 0.17836 (not really that high becuase the tie equity isnt really that big, but its close enough)

So according to this
If I go all in I can expect ~ 17.5% of the final prize pool.
If I fold I can expect between 15.25% to 25% of the prize pool. Averaged out thats ~20% of hte prize pool.

If you put the pfr on any pocket pair, any pocket pair, Any Ace, K7+. And the caller (should be tighter than the raiser) on any PP and any ace. Your win% drops down to about 44%, and your equity of hte prize is only about 17% if you push.

So what do you do?


As a subset of this question what hands do you insta call with?
AA would be an insta call becuase even though ur $ equity is about 25% which is approx the same as if you fold and the other guy gets knocked, the possibility that he does not get knocked out makes it so that ur equity if you fold is only about 20% of the win. Therefore calling would net you a higher equity of the final winnings.
I think TT would be the lowest ahdn you would isntacall with. Your equity in both cases is approximately the same.

[vqc]

This is an obvious push, I'm sorry. The button should be trying to steal. SB thinks "now's it" and might have you owned, but probably not. I'd put him on AQ or something like that. Smaller pockets? Well hell...do you really think you're going to get a hand much better than AK suited anytime soon where other people are willing to run with you? Go for the gold, man. You're in here to win the top prize, not to PLACE.

Push all in.

Its not always about making first. Its about what play will get you the biggest chunk of that money in the long run.

[Hubris1]

If they were roughly equal stack sizes folding is a consideration, the fact is, a win here puts you in a very strong second, which a good player will turn into a strong first via stealing. The 48% doesn't take into account long term implied odds, meaning if you do win the coinflip you're in a great position to take it all, not just squeek into the money. I'm not laying this down here.

[gabe]

i fold and hope to see SB go bust.

[ender555]

i would have to go AI... a lot of the time i bet you have them dominated

[TanO]

I'd go allin and hope to triple up

[vqc]

Does anyone have any comments on the whole ICM thing, and how that might affect ur decisions in the long run?

[biondino]

All-in, but with heart in mouth. If SB has AA you're in trouble, otherwise I reckon you're fine (and I reckon if SB did have AA he'd psychologically have raised that last $70)

[vqc]

but its not about whether or not I make it into the money, its about what play will make the most amount of money in the long run right?

[gabe]

Does anyone have any comments on the whole ICM thing, and how that might affect ur decisions in the long run?

books could be written on this subject!

i think its a good way of looking at it, but should not be a 'rule' on how you play. for example, if you have half the chips in play, ICM says you have a 50% chance of winning, right? well if you have half the chips in a 10 handed table where the blinds are very high, you should be able to run over the table. in cases like this i would say ICM doesn't apply as well as other situations because there are intangibles.

[vqc]

Does anyone have any comments on the whole ICM thing, and how that might affect ur decisions in the long run?

books could be written on this subject!

i think its a good way of looking at it, but should not be a 'rule' on how you play. for example, if you have half the chips in play, ICM says you have a 50% chance of winning, right? well if you have half the chips in a 10 handed table where the blinds are very high, you should be able to run over the table. in cases like this i would say ICM doesn't apply as well as other situations because there are intangibles.

That actually depends on how many people are left on the table.
3 Handed, if you had 5k chips, and the other 2 stacks each had 2.5k, youre money equity would be 38.33%.

[a500lbgorilla]

AI.

You're short stacked and you've got a very pretty hand. Trying to decide which move will extract the most value in the long run might drive you bonkers in the 2 minutes you have to make the decision. Just push.

-'rilla

[chardrian]

Doesn't really matter what you do cuz you can justify it either way in the end. Both folding and pushing have advantages.

[vegaas2]

Blinds are starting to get up there, you are short stacked. You have to win coin flips sometimes to get into the money. This is one where I push it and go AI.

[russhall]

Doesn't really matter what you do cuz you can justify it either way in the end. Both folding and pushing have advantages.

This says it perfectly. You mention above that you are seriously thinking about just finishing ITM. I'm with gabe and hope the SB goes out on this hand to put you there (esp. if he/she felt pot committed with his/her blind).
Admittedly, you lose your blind and this is a gorgeous hand, but if you just want to get in the money, I don't think it's a bad play to lay this down.

As for me, I call and see the flop. Re-raising now won't push anyone out, so just call and save some chips. If you hit anything on the flop, go for it. If you don't, you've nearly got your SB covered and might be able to get lucky the next hand.

[vqc]

AI.

You're short stacked and you've got a very pretty hand. Trying to decide which move will extract the most value in the long run might drive you bonkers in the 2 minutes you have to make the decision. Just push.

-'rilla

i sat down for like half an hour afterwards tyring to see if my play was mathematically correct. No time to think during the hand

[ihategnomes]

I push everytime, without thoughts to who what when where or ICM calculators. I want to win, not limp ITM.

[vqc]

I push everytime, without thoughts to who what when where or ICM calculators. I want to win, not limp ITM.

Do you understand the fact that doing this might make u more money in the long run?

[ihategnomes]

Not really, I play for 1st, forget that limping in the money stuff I find first a lot more than anything else, which drives my ROI up. What wont make you money is a bunch of 2nd's and 3'rds.

[Funky]

With regards to what will make you more money in the long run, it can be debated.

However I would push 100% of the time. The exta value obtained from folding in the long run is offset by the personal joy and self satisfaction I recieve when i place first.

[Iconoclastic]

I push everytime, without thoughts to who what when where or ICM calculators. I want to win, not limp ITM.

Do you understand the fact that doing this might make u more money in the long run?

Barring unforseen circumstances, it's a fold. It's like when there's 4 equal stacks left and top 3 pay 34%33%32% and 2 of them go all in and you hold AKs. Anybody who pushes cuz it's a great hand is making a mistake in terms of EV. Sure you might get more 1sts in the long run and satisfy your ego but it's no different from fishes playing bad poker just because it's fun playing like that.

But frankly I dislike SNGs for this very reason. Most of the edge good players have over average players is in bubble situations like this one that require too much math for me. I'll stick to simple ring games.

[ihategnomes]

Getting 1st's is not what satisfies my ego, its what makes me money.

[DimitriT]

As small stack I'm a wuss in this situation and I fold hoping to
get in the money. Sure you might have a 50% chance of tripleing
up but if you lose to the button you get 4th place. Nothing worse
than finishing 4th IMO.

[Staple Gun]

I think this is an obvious call, as you said, they dont have random hands, I think at least 80% of the time your either dominating, or at a coinflip to triple up.

It looks like both of them have A-high kicker, or a pocket pair, You can be pretty sure button dosnt have AA or KK because he wouldnt have raised huge like that, SB could have them but more often than not, will not have it.

[ZenOffsuit]

I would push here. You could be ahead or slightly behind to smaller pockets. This is clearly the 'Willing to die to Live(win)' moment for the shortstack.

[davekp2003]

So what hapened, for the record I would call AI. I agree with whoever said you're not going to have AK come around again. The cards don't get a lot better then that.

Cheers,
Dave

[vqc]

I really dont remember I would have to find my SNG videos on my other laptop.

When I have them all uploaded again you can watch and find out for urself. I can feel the suspense BUILDING!

[bair]

this is an insanely obvious push in my opinion

[melinda27]

easy push i think, the small blind with 70 chips may fold after the button calls and leaves himself 70 chips hoping you bust out, but doubtfull. Assuming he calls as well even if the button had a monster and breaks you both you finish in 3rd because you started the hand with 1330, and the SB started the hand with 1310 and you're still in the money. If the SB wins the hand then thats just poker and it happens.

[vqc]

Even after reading every post in this thread its still insanely obvious?

Is there ever a right situatino to fold Aces preflop, in your opinion?

[melinda27]

Even after reading every post in this thread its still insanely obvious?

Is there ever a right situatino to fold Aces preflop, in your opinion?

there are times when folding aces preflop would be correct. the times are so rare that they arent even worth considering though. if your bankroll management is good you cant pass up opportunities like this one. Only 1 scenario puts you out of the money and thats the SB winning, if the button wins you're in the money if you win, you're in the money and in good position. You have a monster under your chip protector its time to let it out.

[bair]

well i typically dont play to get in the money and just double my buyin by getting third, thats not how you make money in my opinion, the big wins in SNG's are getting 1st. If you fold here, and the small blind wins the hand, you're in last place by a long shot, and the result will most likely be the same as if you would have called and lost. now if you fold here and the small blind loses then you get third, and its pretty unlikely that you will get a better placing than third because you will be a huge shortstack and you just threw away one of the best hands you've had all tournament. So it pretty much comes down to do you want to be in a good position to get 1st by going in on a hand that you are dominating 75% of the time, and on a coin flip the other 25% of the time? I do. Remember its only 4 handed, the probability of another player having a huge hand when you have AKs is pretty unlikely.

And to answer your question about the aces, yes there is a time, but this is not it. This is simply a small SNG with a small payout for 3rd place. If I was in the WSOP final table then i would definitely be able to fold aces with 4 people all in before me with equal stacks, by just folding I am guaranteed about $500000 more in my pocket. This isnt really the case here, you dont really gain or lose that much money in relation to your buyin. In all SNG's you have to play to win in my opinion, thats just where the money is. In huge MTTs its okay to play to make the money, because thats where the money is too (in relation to your buyin).

[vqc]

All that I am trying to say, is that I am trying to make the play here that maximizes my return in the long run.

If by making this play I am guranteed 30% of the prize pool every time. Then theoretically, wouldnt it be better to make this play instead of the play that makes me 50% of hte prize pool half of hte time?

Im not trying to say that this hand is the perfect situation to illustrate my idea, but it is an example (in my opinion) that illustrates the fact that not all +EV plays are the best plays for increasing tournament equity.

I still stand by the fact that "I play for first not for the money" is overused. Everyone keeps saying it to me in this thread, but no one seems to understand the fact that I am not trying to "limp into the money", instead I am trying to maximize my $Equity.

Also the setting does not matter. By folding ur Aces in the final table of the WSOP you are trying to maximize ur equity of ur prize pool. Grnated at a Single table tournament the payouts are not on the same scale of grandeur as the ones in the WSOP but shouldnt the theory be the same? (Yes it should be =D ). We play to maximize our money.

By the way no one bring up the fact that wining first palce it he WSOP wins you fame and other extraneous money making functions. Those do not apply in this situation becuase they dont exist in SNGs or online poker for that matter.

[DWDuck]

I agree... the "score" in online poker is the money you make. The "correct" decision should be the one that makes you the most money long term. My initial thought with this hand was to fold, then push the next hand that that I am first to act on.

Darkwing

[bair]

but you arent guaranteed 30% of the prize pool every time. the small blind can easily win this hand. thats why you should call.

and the setting DOES matter. there is a huge difference between moving up in the money in a MTT and in an SNG. in the picture i painted, i said it was guaranteed that you would move up in the money. in your case, YOU ARE NOT GUARANTEED ANYTHING. the small blind could easily, and probably does have a better hand than the raiser. the raise was probably a steal, lets say it was a steal 50% of the time. the small blind will probably call him with any naked ace and any pocket pair (unlikely he has one in a 4 handed game). the raiser probably has absolutely nothing, and if he does he probably has an ace and you have him dominated. you are probably favored going in the flop, and moving up in the placings is everything but definite if you fold. therefore you must call.

[DavSimon]

You are trying to apply a matmatical construct to a situation so that you know what to do each and every time this scenario arises.....the problem is that this scenario does not come up often enough for you to have a "rule" associated with it.
Yes - I know you just want to know which play is going to be more +EV over the long term, but what I'm saying is that while similar situations may arise....a 3 way all in on the bubble is not a very common occurance....and if it does happen more than a few times a month the chip stacks and your hand will not be the same every time.

Why are you short stacked....have you just had bad cards, or are these opponents just tough. If I am up against some really tough competition I am more likely to gamble and make the call....it would be tough for me to out play them with so few chips and a triple up would give me a whole lot of leverage. If I had been getting bad cards and/or my opps have been getting lucky and are otherwise weakish players then I fold and limp into the money and do my best to out play them from there. Not mathematical, but logical...well, to me anyway.

[bair]

if you are guaranteed to make the money by folding (they have equal stacks), then you should fold. but you arent guaranteed to make the money, so you should call.

[vqc]

bair, in my lastest post, I was no o longer arguing for the validity of the play as much as I was arguing for the theory behind the play.

davsimon, a +$EV play will be +$EV whether or not it occurs once or a million times. that is all I am trying to say. This "exact" situation will probably never occur again in my life as a poker player. But at the very least whether or not the play is correct can be calculated on a purely mathematical basis. Furthermore, if something similar to it were to happen again, to someone else, at least they will have something for them to think about.

+EV != +Tournament Money Equity
That is all I am trying to say.

[DavSimon]

a +$EV play will be +$EV whether or not it occurs once or a million times.

While this may be true in a strict sense, how does that help you if you make a once in a million +EV play that actually does not pay off. Yes it was a +EV play, and yes it will pay off in the long run if you play it the same way each and every time the next hundred or thousand times, but some situations are so rare that you need to look eleswhere for direction. This is essentially what Ripptyde has been preaching since the beginning....play poker not math. I tend to straddle the fence of both camps...analytical and instinctual players, that is why I really push developing reading skils AND advocate really paying attention at the table...even if you multi-table. Even if you don't have a defensible reason for making a play, that gut feeling...is often a result of your subconscious feeding you information about subtle reads you have and don't even realize it.

But at the very least whether or not the play is correct can be calculated on a purely mathematical basis

Yes it can, and it is an interesting exercise....but what is more interesting is how you plan on using this information in the future.

All that I am trying to say, is that I am trying to make the play here that maximizes my return in the long run

I hear you....it is good to think about these things, but you seem to have this need for people to agree with you, or at the least are irritated that some may not (your tone is a bit confrontational) If it makes you feel better, I agree with everything you said, I was only suggesting that you look "outside of the box" for the answer.

Part of having confidence in your play is feeling like you can beat anyone on any given day...part of realisitcally analyzing your play is asking yourself can I beat these poeple this day....then coming up with a truthful answer. Sometimes the answer is no, I'm not playing my best, or they are playing exceptionally well....if that is the answer then I take the gamble and try to triple up. Otherwise I take the safe bet and fold, hope the button wins...play my butt off and still take 1st.
Call me weak/tight at times...call me a lagg....call me taggy - it is all true. I play the way I need to play at that time to win....yes, I want first and I get there alot, however 2nd or 3rd will do in a pinch as long as I go out trying to take first. What is not acceptable is taking 4th when I really don't have to. Most days I fold that A-K....and do my best to outplay the remaining players....but my answer may change tomorrow....it is a tough question, and truthfully I don't know if I do the same thing each time - does that make me a bad person?

[DrumzCT]

Well, if you switch places with the SB position wise, it would be a brainless push. Then say the SB called after you push, my initial reaction b4 the cards flipped would be a positive one. Of course the value of position is you get more info I understand, just trying to put things into another perspective.

I play for first and push this every time.

[BreakfastMan]

Like DavSimon said:

[vqc]

a +$EV play will be +$EV whether or not it occurs once or a million times.

While this may be true in a strict sense, how does that help you if you make a once in a million +EV play that actually does not pay off. Yes it was a +EV play, and yes it will pay off in the long run if you play it the same way each and every time the next hundred or thousand times, but some situations are so rare that you need to look eleswhere for direction. This is essentially what Ripptyde has been preaching since the beginning....play poker not math. I tend to straddle the fence of both camps...analytical and instinctual players, that is why I really push developing reading skils AND advocate really paying attention at the table...even if you multi-table. Even if you don't have a defensible reason for making a play, that gut feeling...is often a result of your subconscious feeding you information about subtle reads you have and don't even realize it.

But at the very least whether or not the play is correct can be calculated on a purely mathematical basis

Yes it can, and it is an interesting exercise....but what is more interesting is how you plan on using this information in the future.

All that I am trying to say, is that I am trying to make the play here that maximizes my return in the long run

I hear you....it is good to think about these things, but you seem to have this need for people to agree with you, or at the least are irritated that some may not (your tone is a bit confrontational) If it makes you feel better, I agree with everything you said, I was only suggesting that you look "outside of the box" for the answer.

Part of having confidence in your play is feeling like you can beat anyone on any given day...part of realisitcally analyzing your play is asking yourself can I beat these poeple this day....then coming up with a truthful answer. Sometimes the answer is no, I'm not playing my best, or they are playing exceptionally well....if that is the answer then I take the gamble and try to triple up. Otherwise I take the safe bet and fold, hope the button wins...play my butt off and still take 1st.
Call me weak/tight at times...call me a lagg....call me taggy - it is all true. I play the way I need to play at that time to win....yes, I want first and I get there alot, however 2nd or 3rd will do in a pinch as long as I go out trying to take first. What is not acceptable is taking 4th when I really don't have to. Most days I fold that A-K....and do my best to outplay the remaining players....but my answer may change tomorrow....it is a tough question, and truthfully I don't know if I do the same thing each time - does that make me a bad person?

Thank you davsimon =D.

I think i folded this hand in the actual SNG (im not sure tho), and when I did I felt like it had to be the best play, and then I went on a course of action to see if I was correct.

I understand your push for hand reading which is where I am in my game. It stil amazes me when I was watchign gabezor play, and gabe said meh hes on KQ or KJ, and the guy turns over KQ at showdown.

The only reason I have for math is: even if i put someone on the a hand, and I am correct, I still want to know what chance I have of winning that hand.

I personally dont see it is "the need for everyone to agree" but rather "the need for everyone to not come by and say that its a black and white situation".

And I do apologize if I have irked anyone, not my intention.
FTR is my poker home, and I would hate to have anyone here dislike me.

-vqc

[BreakfastMan]

Let me try this again:

I agree with DavSimon in the following:

[quote="DavSimon"]

... that is why I really push developing reading skils AND advocate really paying attention at the table..... "But at the very least whether or not the play is correct can be calculated on a purely mathematical basis" Yes it can, and it is an interesting exercise....but what is more interesting is how you plan on using this information in the future.

vqchuang, I believe we think in much the same way, in that you want a mathmatical underpinning for all of your decisions and that we both are obsessed with Harrington's books

The fact that you took the time to understand the expected value of this situation shows that you are into the development of your game. I am sure that many people just assume that they have a large edge in this situation and they push without any further thought.

Althought the anaylsis shows that it is slightly better to fold here, the important information is that this is closer to a 50/50 decision then many people would believe. These are the cases when a read on your opponents may make you even greater +ev. My read on the SB in the case would make my decision. How aware is the SB of the situation he is in? Why did he just call instead of going all in for another 70 chips? Do I think he would push with any resonable Ace? Depending on that read I most likely lay down my hand 70% of the time and push the other 30%.

[CgoRES3]

I'd push here to try and win the tourney not get into third

[vqc]

no im pretty sure the rule is lower place is the one with the lower stack at the beg of hte hand.

[elanto]

yes you are right lower place is the one with the lowest number of chips at the beggining of the hand...this situation is really tough and it really depends on the day, basically what dav said, how well i am playing? how does my play compare to that of my table? are they dominating me? etc after answering these questions i make a decision...


-anto

[DavSimon]

Holy crap....hey there Anto!!!

[vqc]

Im not sure how google works (how it ranks pages to be specific) but I found it kind of cool that when I was searching for "ICM calculator" in google, that this thread came up as the 4th main page (6th overall). Just thought everyone should know =D.

On a similar note, FTR is on page three of my "poker forum" search. WHY ISNT IT HIGHER!??????!!!?!?!?!

To Continue my late night rambling.
FOr those of you that care, and even those of you that dont. I moved over to Empire poker today. Played my first 10 SNGs two tabling. 10+1s, overall +$20. Thats like 4 dollars an hour!!!!

Also, is there anything that you guys would like to see provided in this forum? Freerolls provided by ur moderator =P? Free money? A community built FAQ... HINT HINT.

STupid dogs outside are barking at 1 in the morning. Time to go kick some ass. WHEEEEEEE

[SnoT_III]

Don't hold me to this exactly, but it depends on what words are on this site. A lot of people add a hidden text at the top of their page. There is a certain formula that google uses, but people have programs to determine their ranking. So whoever is the webmaster of FTR would have to put a code in the front like poker flush straight forum ace poker no limit hold em etc etc. If you use the same word too many times it takes away points.