MTT: Value bet or sit tight?

[Chicago_Kid]

coffin-boy calls many raisess and big bets into him, but has yet to re-raise and has drawn out to a couple monster hands for wins. I put him on range of JT and up. Do you bet the turn/river for value or forgo the raise possibility?

PokerStars Game #2084228568: Tournament #9959578, Hold'em No Limit - Level III (25/50) - 2005/07/11 - 23:31:59 (ET)
Table '9959578 1' Seat #3 is the button
Seat 1: cattaneo (6930 in chips)
Seat 2: 8_Bud (1375 in chips)
Seat 3: acesfrenchy (1085 in chips)
Seat 4: DaChicagoKid (2190 in chips)
Seat 5: jcoffinber (3130 in chips)
Seat 8: sheetrokker (1075 in chips)
DaChicagoKid: posts small blind 25
jcoffinber: posts big blind 50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DaChicagoKid [As Ah]
sheetrokker: folds
cattaneo: folds
8_Bud: folds
acesfrenchy: folds
DaChicagoKid: raises 100 to 150
jcoffinber: calls 100
*** FLOP *** [Kd 9s Jc]
DaChicagoKid: bets 200
jcoffinber: calls 200
*** TURN *** [Kd 9s Jc] [Jd]
DaChicagoKid: ???

[DaNutsInYoEye]

Even before the turn... Why didn't you bet more on the flop? In most cases you need to be betting at least the size of the pot. With the blinds still this low I would probably bet slightly more than the pot, in this case around 400-500. Your read on your opponent makes this even more important. First he has shown he will call big bets so why not make him pay if he is willing? He has a decent size stack for this stage of the tournament so again he will likely be more willing to call a larger bet. If the guy likes to chase then make him pay premium to do so.

With the opponent as you described him, I am firing out another bet on the turn. This guy could have anything and what you're afraid a player like this might have is often a lot worse than what he actually does. I'd bet between 1/2 and 2/3 the pot. If he raises you then you can get away from the hand and still have some chips to work with. If he calls me again I re-evaluate. Again, betting the flop stronger would have probably kept you out of this situation.

[gabe]

i wait for river to check. bet turn.

[TanO]

Bet 300 on the flop,
Bet 500 on the turn,
if he's still there check the river

I put him on Q10

[DimitriT]

I'd bet 300 on the turn. What you are looking for is some indication that he has made trips, 2pr or a straight or that he's on a draw. You want to give him the opportunity to raise you here with the hands that will beat you or call/fold with the hands that you can beat. Given the board, you would check the river.

[chardrian]

The size of your flop bet depends on your table. I don't mind a 2/3 bet there. You are making him wager 200 into a 500 pot, unless he has a made hand (TQ or 2 pair) u r not giving him odds becuase at best he has 7 outs (but you may be make it awfully tempting to let him hit a hand - if you can't fold AA then you do need to bet much bigger). However, checking the turn then does give him odds to have made that call on the flop. Pot is 700 by the turn - bet 500 see what he does and go from there.

[Chicago_Kid]

Y'all have confirmed that I definitely wussed out on this one. I usually would have bet 300 on the flop, and probably gone after him on the turn, too. But I had been watching this guy carefully (first to my left) and he had won a couple huge hands by smooth calling big bets to showdown, and I didn't really feel I had him figured out. So, a couple hands before this one I had made up my mind not to get taken by this guy and to avoid him as best I could, then the J on the turn spooked me.

Anyway, I also checked (wussed) on the river and and he showed down Q9c.

In retrospect, I agree that the best way to "avoid" him taking my stack was probably to play at him hard to make him expose his strength.

Thanks for the advice.