In the money, fold, call or reraise big stack at your table?

[digitaldoc]

Little more history. About 77-80 people left in this rebuy tourney. Average stack was around 80k. Maybe one hand out of 9 would actually see a flop.



*********** # 265 **************
PokerStars Game #2078235031: Tournament #9608845, Hold'em No Limit - Level XV (3000/6000) - 2005/07/11 - 02:18:47 (ET)
Table '9608845 81' Seat #2 is the button
Seat 1: rdcrsn (115929 in chips)
Seat 2: GlenPo (188152 in chips)
Seat 3: digitaldoc2 (140127 in chips)
Seat 4: calzadillas (51080 in chips)
Seat 5: Zen Badger (56828 in chips)
Seat 6: feel12 (78144 in chips)
Seat 7: HoneyDue (23600 in chips)
Seat 9: Genius28 (116703 in chips)
rdcrsn: posts the ante 300
GlenPo: posts the ante 300
digitaldoc2: posts the ante 300
calzadillas: posts the ante 300
Zen Badger: posts the ante 300
feel12: posts the ante 300
HoneyDue: posts the ante 300
Genius28: posts the ante 300
digitaldoc2: posts small blind 3000
calzadillas: posts big blind 6000
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to digitaldoc2 [Qs Qd]
Zen Badger: folds
feel12: folds
HoneyDue: raises 17300 to 23300 and is all-in
Genius28: folds
rdcrsn: folds
GlenPo: raises 48700 to 72000


Your next to act. What would you do and why?










digitaldoc2: raises 67827 to 139827 and is all-in
calzadillas: folds
GlenPo: calls 67827
*** FLOP *** [9s 2c 5h]
*** TURN *** [9s 2c 5h] [Ks]
*** RIVER *** [9s 2c 5h Ks] [Ac]
*** SHOW DOWN ***
digitaldoc2: shows [Qs Qd] (a pair of Queens)
GlenPo: shows [Ah Js] (a pair of Aces)
Stelvask [observer] said, "oh wow"
GlenPo collected 233054 from side pot
HoneyDue: shows [4s 4h] (a pair of Fours)
GlenPo collected 78300 from main pot
Genius28 said, "ggs"
Genius28 said, "vnh"
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 311354 Main pot 78300. Side pot 233054. | Rake 0
Board [9s 2c 5h Ks Ac]
Seat 1: rdcrsn folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: GlenPo (button) showed [Ah Js] and won (311354) with a pair of Aces
Seat 3: digitaldoc2 (small blind) showed [Qs Qd] and lost with a pair of Queens
Seat 4: calzadillas (big blind) folded before Flop
Seat 5: Zen Badger folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: feel12 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: HoneyDue showed [4s 4h] and lost with a pair of Fours
Seat 9: Genius28 folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[SnoT_III]

That's a really tough situation to be in. Personally I used to call anything with pocket queens, but i've been folding them a lot more recently. With a big raise and a call after that, you know it's a gamble to call. Someone has an over or a PP. Even the best case scenario you can't be more than 50% to win the hand.
Now the question is, do you want to sit back and wait for another hand? How has your play been so far in this tourny? If this hand hits you know you have a huge amount of chips and will probably win a lot of money.
I personally would have watched the time bank roll down and made a last second decision, probably to fold, and be very unhappy until I saw that ace on the river.

Also,
I don't know if you read the Harrington books, but you could have seen at least another 12 orbits before you were blinded away (considering the blinds don't raise in that time, which they will). This is a spot where you need to make a move soon but you aren't desperate.

[drmcboy]

Reads help... in a vacuum not a bad spot for the stop and go, AK is calling either way pre flop, but you may get them out after.

EDIT -I swear, I typed that before I read. And without SUPER tight read no chance I fold QQ here. You haven't won anything yet.

[digitaldoc]

It's funny how things look different in the morning after you had some sleep. I kept replaying this hand over and over in my mind. I am currently leaning towards the better play, would have been to call the the raise instead of re-raising. That way when the flop hits all low cards, I can push if he checks. I think the call would have scared him more than the re-raise.

The other thought, that I had was the speed at which he called my all in push. It was very quick, so when he turned AJo he must have had some sort of read on my play. Hmmm. I'll have to look at what hands I showed and what were my plays before this one.

I really didn't have a great read on this person, and more importantly, the really large re-raise, kind of confused my thinking. Questions started to pop in my head. But ultimately, I put him on the range of hands that included AA, KK, JJ, TT, AK, AJ and maybe AT. But I dismissed aces, figuring he would want someone else to come in, so he would call the all-in instead of re-raising. This bet for some reason, made me feel he didn't have AA or KK. I honestly thought he had JJ's. (But that may have been wishful thinking.)

The one question that I didn't ask that I should have facing a raise and a re-raise, was "Do I really need to be involved in this hand?"

Looking back one last time, I think I got married to the pocket QQ's late in the tourney. I'll add that to my growing list of lessons learned.

[dthorne04]

Most times to me a massive raise like that suggests that his hand isn't ENTIRELY strong. At that point I would've put him on an ace, but an ace that's a good underdog to your Queens. I don't think I would've called in his situation, and it sucks that one of his three outs came. I like to gamble with a hand like Queens there and exploit the upper hand.

Tough situation, sorry to see that you lost.

[DimitriT]

I fold that right there. The second to act is representing a big made hand. You are likely to benefit from this, since the first to act may get busted which would put you deeper in the money. Pick a better situation to fight over the chips, right now you want to maximize your pay.

[xxDFOCxx]

I would probably fold it.

The first one was desperate and waited for any good-medium hand to go All-In. The second who raised big is telling you he as something good (after seeing the first one go all_in). Unless having a good read on him, I would probably fold causew your beat by any A or K on the flop.

[drmcboy]

Sorry I think you guys are way off here, small stack is moving with anything, and the guy is re raising to isolate. That DOES NOT say big hand, just the opposite. AA does something cute like min raise or smooth call here.

[soupie]

Its a clear fold. The blinds are still small enought to not matter to your stack. Ie you have plenty to go 2 or 3 more rounds even if you dont take down a pot.

Secondly, callling 1 all in and one large reraise with qq is a sucker play. Too often you are dominated by AA or KK or drawn out on by AK.

If you have a small stack say 30K there is it a must call, but you had plenty of chips to pass.

[TanO]

Fold, I always prefer to wait until I've seen an A and K free flop before pushing with QQ, and its my bogey hand.

The raise is clearly isolation so its just him versus the small stack, but thats fine, let them go at it and dont take the risk.

Obviously if it had there had been no action from the short stack to you then I would push to make sure the BB didnt come along for the ride, but that didnt happen.

[koolmoe]

Its a clear fold. The blinds are still small enought to not matter to your stack. Ie you have plenty to go 2 or 3 more rounds even if you dont take down a pot.

Secondly, callling 1 all in and one large reraise with qq is a sucker play. Too often you are dominated by AA or KK or drawn out on by AK.

If you have a small stack say 30K there is it a must call, but you had plenty of chips to pass.

This is interesting. If you went by HOH2 analysis, I think it would clearly be a push:

- Hero's M is between 12 and 13, so the pressure is starting to rise.
- Small stack could have just about any two cards here, but A little and small pairs are certainly in the mix.
- The raise to 72K suggests that Villian doesn't want company, and he's also left himself some room (though not a lot) to fold. Lots of holdings could be in play for him: pairs from 99-AA, as well as A(K-T).
- The majority of the pot will be contested between Hero and the big stack, so odds of gaining a huge chip stack this play should be much greater than 50%, probably 70% or so.

Doing a structured hand analysis would show the push to be +EV, I'm quite certain.

Is the chance to move up in the money without doing anything the overriding factor here? Or is it just not having the first-in vigorish or enough chips to make the big stack go away?

I'll be the first to admit that I struggle in tourneys, so don't take this as anything but an attempt to reconcile the book learning with practical experience.

[drmcboy]

If they original raiser had a real stack and then got called I'd say fold, but with him being a small stack I just don't see how you fold here. Call vs push is a discussion, fold is just weak IMO. You're going to need some cards to hold up to get to the final table. How much better of a spot are you going to find than a flip with a nice pot overlay? And it's more likely given the big overraise you dominate both than big stack just happens to have AA/KK. Unless you think villian is more likely to have AA/KK than to have JJ-AQ on down this pot is +EV. If you stop and go and only move in on flops without AK it's even better.

[gabe]

i only play KK and AA here.

[drmcboy]

take the SS out, big stack raises cold to 70K, are you still folding QQ?

[chardrian]

I like the play - it looks like the raiser was trying to isolate to me. AA or KK would just call so they're basically out of the equation, AK maybe, QQ or lower most probable, and AQ or AJ also maybe. At worst I'm thinking you are a slight favorite (against AK), at best you are dominating. I'd say u played it like a champ. If you had won, like you should have, there would be no discussion, and you would've put yourself in a really good position to dominate.

[gabe]

thats why the isolation play works. it makes another big stack with a hand like QQ scared of playing for all his chips.

[gabe]

take the SS out, big stack raises cold to 70K, are you still folding QQ?

ooof, depends on what other types of plays hes been making.

[chardrian]

thats why the isolation play works. it makes another big stack with a hand like QQ scared of playing for all his chips.

Or it makes another big stack become an even bigger stack by taking all his chips.

When digital pushes are you still calling here if you are Glen? Has he committed himself?

[koolmoe]

Another thing to consider is the ease of stealing blinds. If most hands are uncontested preflop, then folding here becomes a bit easier. If you're going to have to make a stand at some point, I'd rather do it with QQ against a probable weaker holding.

[Bmxicle]

Its very read dependent, against a loose big stack i'd definately make this call. If you go through the thought processes of each player they both probably have a very large range of hands. The short stack could basically be pushing any two cause he';s thinking "crap i have to push before the blinds". The big stack is thinking "hey i have a hand, but not a hand i want in a multiway pot: time to isolate him". Now he could definately be isolating w/ AA, KK but i know in this situation (although i generally like to have a bit beter position to do so) that i will become quite loose with what i will do this with because i know the shortstack is under extreme pressure to go allin. So i think you can put the big stack on a large range of hands and i would probably end up calling.

All of what i said above is useless though if you had a read that he was a tight conservative player, thats why reads are sooo important in mtts.

[soupie]

Hey KoolMo,

You still have the best singing voice. We miss you on vent.

To the question at hand. Even if the push with QQ is positive ev with potrofdsgge ananlysis and confirmed by teedoodle do super main frame databank of great poker play, it comes down to this. How many times can you push here and get away with before you get caught and are gone.

Lets say for arguements sake, that he is 50% to beat the other 2 hands at showdown on the river. I dont think for 1 second the guy who raised to 70K is every folding in the rebuy maddness for that much of his stack. They just dont do it.

Well after doing it 2 times, you are only 25% to survive all in coin flips, after 3 times 12.5% and so on. You can not stake your tourney life on all in coin flips against even stacks, you almost never will win 6 or 7 in a row to final table it.

You have to consistently use position and folding equity to your advantage to maintain and build your stack. When you have a stack you dont recklessly try for double ups just because you can. You let others bust themselves that way.

Now if he was against the short stack only absolutely. He has the best hand probably and is not risking his whole stack. Is a lot harder to lose 3 coin flips in a row to knocked out than it is to win 3 coinflips in a row to stay in. Scenerio number 1 you are still in tourney 87.5% with 3 coin flips into smaller stacks. Scenerio number 2 you are only in the tourney 12.5% against 3 even stacks.

Cheers,

Soupie