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trust me guys, I'm the king of the contination bet, they used to call me continue cuthbertt. I do not fear it, but it is not 100 % effective and I'm not buying the play here, because I don't think it's likely to win the pot, and the 'info' I get doesn't really help unless I get raised. 3 opps in the hand. HU I'd bet this flop all day.
If I bet the flop - anything except the A or flush draw likely folds. Very small odds that no one has the A, but it's a possibility. If I get called, I have to assume the A is out and I check fold, giving the draw correct odds to call since I can't bet the turn. So he gets the free card and I have no chance of winning more $$, but I DO have a chance of getting bluffed out on the river. If the draw gets there I'm still checking, so is the A, again he gets a free card and wins.
How about raising on the turn - it reps a slow played (badly IMO, but people do it) AK (Or the Ax spade) and maybe forces a weak A to fold? Flush draw may or may not call but maybe checks the river on a miss?
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