Push this pair + OESD?

[fjuanl]

I made a terrible bet on the flop...just wondering what some of you would do in this situation.

Reads on villian : aggressive. raises a lot of hands preflop

my image : tight at beginning of tourny, now aggressive

(Bodog $5+.5 SnG)

fjuanl $ 2,515.00
randolph3383 $ 1,580.00
luccky7s $ 1,140.00
Otrain00 $ 4,765.00

luccky7s Set dealer/Bring in spot 8
Otrain00 Ante/Small blind $ 150.00
fjuanl Big blind/Bring in $ 300.00

Cards dealt to fjuanl :

randolph3383 Fold
luccky7s Fold
Otrain00 Raise $ 450.00
fjuanl Call $ 300.00

pot = $1,200.00

***FLOP*** :
Otrain00 Check
fjuanl ????

[vqc]

you are less than 10xBB, fold preflop or push preflop.

check behind and hope u draw ur straight is wat i would do.

your opponent may be on a flush draw so you dont want to give him a free card. you also have a pair. i'd semi bluff in this situation and push. any small raise will induce a reraise since he outstacks you, and will also show weakness.

[DimitriT]

When the blinds are this big and there are just four plrs you don't want to play those hands. You want to play hands OOP that you can push or defend PREFLOP - that will hold up in an all-in situation. No drawing hands.

[ZenOffsuit]

When the blinds are this big and there are just four plrs you don't want to play those hands. You want to play hands OOP that you can push or defend PREFLOP - that will hold up in an all-in situation. No drawing hands.

If I was acting first, I would absolutely raise with this hand shorthanded. But I would fold this hand to the pre-flop raise in this situation. Why tangle with the one chip stack that can wipe you out? Fold and look for a better opportunity when you can be the aggressor.

[drmcboy]

i tend to agree you don't have enough left to call here pre flop.

once you have, i'd push here. No reason to think he wasn't just stealing and will give it up, if not you've got plenty of outs. Plus he may think you're on a pure draw and call with an A.

[vqc]

someone should try and figure out the EV of this.

lets say your options on the flop are 1)Push 2)Check

If you push
1) You pick up thte chips
2) You get called and win/lose

If you check behind
1) You pick up the pot and maybe more if you hit ur draw or trips on the turn
2) You fold if you miss your draw on the turn and he bets into you

Which one is higher +EV?

im gonna be the newb and ask what is EV? these acronyms will drive me mad. is it earning value? elephant vagina?

[vqc]

expected value i beleive.

this should be the generic equation for EV
=-(cost to play)(total times played)+(value if won)(times won)+(value if lost)(times lost)

[a500lbgorilla]

i push the flop.

-'rilla

[elanto]

im not calling with my 78s pre flop against the chip leader, but this flop was pretty good for u so yes im probably pushing here...he will probably fold and youll take the pot down right there...


-anto

[zenbitz]

If you push
1) You pick up thte chips
2) You get called and win/lose

If you check behind
1) You pick up the pot and maybe more if you hit ur draw or trips on the turn
2) You fold if you miss your draw on the turn and he bets into you

Pretty tough calculation, since a open min raise from big stack in the SB means bupkis. He checks the flop, which is funny, because you are likely to push.

In fact, I cannot comprehend ANY logical holding with which he checks this flop.
That makes it rather difficult to calculate odds.

Either he's a moron for slow playing trips/over pair on this board, or his hand is so bad (23 hearts or something), that he can't bear to bet it.

Or he has the nuts, j8s (he could still lose if you have two spades, 1 higher than J, but that's something of a long shot).

[fjuanl]

I'm still not sure what the right play is for this...there have been so many different replies.

fold preflop, push the flop, check the flop....


my gut instinct is to push the flop and just take down the pot.

[elanto]

Yes I would also ppush the flop with low pair and the OESD, if he calls with mid or top pair your still drawing to 8 outs...11 if he doesnt have two pair or a gut shot


-anto

[a500lbgorilla]

In fact, I cannot comprehend ANY logical holding with which he checks this flop.

I don't follow.

This flop hits a lot of calling hands and misses a bunch of raising hands. Op could possibly check an overpair, but just to uncomplicate things we can ignor that. Op will basically check and possibly call all high card hands.

-'rilla

[Sykedupp]

elephant vagina?

You just made me laugh.


-Chris

[zenbitz]

Sorry, don't know what I was thinking. He probably has overcards with no draw. Still, you usually see SOME sort of contination bet, even on a scary flop.

I think I might take the free card here - mostly because he's an idiot for giving it. If he looks weak again on the turn, you can bet out even if the draws missed.

I don't think you are short enough to take a stand with bottom pair / straight draw, although I don't think that's a particularly bad play.

[Miffed22001]

He could have anything but im pushing here.
I reckon opp may think your bluffing a dangerous looking flop but i think aggression pays at this stage and especially here. Cant see him having anything on the flop.

[vqc]

as a final answer

I believe that pushing and checking is +EV.
Betting is not +EV, folding is not +EV

As for which is MORE +EV pushing or checking, I really dont kno, and you cant be faulted for doing either one.

HOWEVER, if you were first to act on this flop, I would think that pushing is >> EV than checking would be.

[a500lbgorilla]

He could have anything but im pushing here.

Never make it this hard on yourself. Pick the most likely ranges and run with them.

-'rilla

[fjuanl]

I don't think you are short enough to take a stand with bottom pair / straight draw, although I don't think that's a particularly bad play.

thats basically what i was thinking. i put him on 2 high cards and I was almost sure he would fold to an all in bet, but i just didnt feel shorstacked enough to have to make a stand. i agree checking the flop is the only other decent option.

do any of you fold this preflop? is it worth it to be calling with drawing hands at this stage? having a big chiplead is huge leverage at the end of these sit n gos.

[CFANG]

Folding this preflop is still fine as you're still 2nd in chips and it might make people respect your next couple of blind steals more. I like the flop push in this situation as this is the kind of flop most blind steals hate to see. If you think the guy is the type to slowplay his top pair short handed (which seems very dangrous on this board) then go with the free card. Its also entirely possible that the SB was raising your blind with junk being the big stack trying to keep the preasure on.

[gabe]

preflop: the way to stop aggro players is not to call with speculative hands like 87s. just fold.

postflop: whether you push here depends on how he has been playing. we know he is aggro, but does he usually fire out bets on the flop when he misses? if he usually checks when he misses, just go ahead and push. if he seems to bet every time and checked this one, i would be afraid of a monster.