MTT Dilemma

[texasscud]

You're nearing the money in a $200 + $15 MTT. The table has been tight, with preflop pushes going unchallenged. You've pushed several times in the last two orbits from various positions and have not been called. Blinds are $400/$800, about to go t0 $500/$1,000. Your stack is around $9,000, which is below average for this stage of the tournament. Other stacks at your table are about equal with the exception of two stacks of around $20K (each has position on you).

You're UTG+1, catch AQ offsuit. Big stacks are not in the blinds. You raise to $2,400 only to have an AI raise from MP. Call or fold, and why? Also, should you have pushed rather than raising to 3BB?

[Tim Vecchioni]

fold...its either a/k or a pp...

[gabe]

what hands have you seen MP do this with? does MP have you covered?

[texasscud]

MP has pushed once in the last two orbits. Only been at the table for that time. His push was not called.

[texasscud]

MP's stack is the same give or take a few hundred chips.

[m3laNcholy]

If the table is as you described plus you are near the money (that means that he probably HAS a hand) I'd fold. You can steal the blinds ONCE since they are going up in a while and you have the same chips.

I also wouldnt have pushed AQ from UTG +1 with 9k and blinds at 800.
Only thing you could have acomplised by pushing was a tight player might have folded sth like pocket tens or less while that same player might have come over the top of you with the same hand cause you raised 3BB. Otherwise if you push AQ you are dead if you are called.

[zenbitz]

I'm not sure this isn't a +EV call. Can't comment on +$EV, because if you are SUPER close to the money, and it's a respectable amount (your call), then you should probably fold.

Pot has ~$12.5K. You have $6.6K. Not quite 2:1. You are pretty crippled (certainly push/fold territory) if you fold.

He has:
AA/KK/QQ/AK - you still win 1 in 4 (except vs AA)
Pocket below QQ - coin flip and you have odds
He could have another AQ (not likely, but if so, you should call)
K(J-2) - you are favorite at least 1.5:1
Anything else (from loose push to stone bluff) - you are way ahead.

There is at least a 10% chance he is bluffing (HOH1).

Let's say 50% pocket pair, 40% he dominates you, 10% he's bluffing.

Your chance of winning is about .5 x .5 + .4 x .20 + .1 X .67 = .25 + .08 + .07 = 40%!

Your break even is about 35%, so unless you feel that MP is very unlikely to make this play with a medium or low pair, you can seriously consider calling. Even if he NEVER bluffs or makes a loose push (i.e., no pair), you are still pretty close to break even.

Keep in mind that the 50/40 % pair - domination comes direct from the ASSOTRON 100.

With 10BB left... it's a judgement call to raise 3BB or push. You are probably pushing the flop if you get called.

[texasscud]

Zen--Thanks for the analysis. I'll post results after a few more weigh in with their opinions. Tourney started with around 2,300 and was down to less than 300 when this happened. The money (around $325) was roughly 50 spots away.

[zenbitz]

50 spots doesn't seem that close to me.

With 6500 (if you release) and blinds of 500/1000 - probably antes too... I think you have to gamble here unless you are sure you are behind, or you have been playing so tight that he must have respected (and hence, disregarded) your PFR.

[a500lbgorilla]

You're nearing the money in a $200 + $15 MTT. The table has been tight, with preflop pushes going unchallenged. You've pushed several times in the last two orbits from various positions and have not been called. Blinds are $400/$800, about to go t0 $500/$1,000. Your stack is around $9,000, which is below average for this stage of the tournament. Other stacks at your table are about equal with the exception of two stacks of around $20K (each has position on you).

You're UTG+1, catch AQ offsuit. Big stacks are not in the blinds. You raise to $2,400 only to have an AI raise from MP. Call or fold, and why? Also, should you have pushed rather than raising to 3BB?

If op stack is avg, its a fold. If he's a big stack it could be a resteal and a close call.

-'rilla

[studboyjoe]

it's a fold, at best a coinflip, which you don't need to get into with an average chip stack. Of course, you can win a coinflip.....

[texasscud]

I was actually the MP who pushed--I wanted to understand the thoughts behind the actions of the raiser. I thought the raiser would respect the AI given the tightness of the table. He thought for a long time and called. Neither his AQ nor my 910 suited improved and I was out. Turns out the caller was a player ranked in the top 10 on PocketFives. I'd guess that a player at that level is more inclined to take risks because they're in multiple tournaments and the money doesn't mean much to them. Thanks for the comments.

[a500lbgorilla]

You pushed into soupie with 9ts?!

You fool!

I should be top 10 on p5s, reading your resteal.

-'rilla

[drmcboy]

If you aren't going to call the raise, I think you should push instead.