KK > 999 on flop... your play?

[SinkRox]

** Game ID 294506890 starting - 2005-08-17 16:28:04
** Aero [Hold 'em] (0.10|0.20 No Limit - Cash Game) Real Money

- krissyd sitting in seat 1 with $31.97 [Dealer]
- PokerFace777 sitting in seat 2 with $1.30
- jannejanne sitting in seat 3 with $8.55
- SinkRox sitting in seat 4 with $19.80
- Woodsta sitting in seat 5 with $8.64
- DELBOYLIB9 sitting in seat 6 with $4.33
- BigLarry sitting in seat 7 with $19.80
- m2rk22 sitting in seat 8 with $20.68
- DrunkMac sitting in seat 9 with $39.54
- chip__club sitting in seat 10 with $8.40

PokerFace777 posted the small blind - $0.10
jannejanne posted the big blind - $0.20

** Dealing card to SinkRox: King of Spades, King of Hearts
SinkRox raised - $1.20
Woodsta called - $1.20
DELBOYLIB9 called - $1.20
BigLarry called - $1.20
m2rk22 folded
DrunkMac folded
chip__club folded
krissyd called - $1.20
PokerFace777 folded
jannejanne folded

** Dealing the flop: 9 of Hearts, 9 of Clubs, 9 of Spades
SinkRox bet - $4.00
Woodsta folded
DELBOYLIB9 folded
BigLarry called - $4.00
krissyd folded

** Dealing the turn: 7 of Diamonds
SinkRox bet - $9.00
BigLarry called - $9.00

** Dealing the river: Ace of Hearts
SinkRox checked
BigLarry went all-in - $5.60
SinkRox.... (pot is aprox ~ $35)

suggestions on how I played this hand please and any other possible ways to play it?

[Laeelin]

I think you played it great.

His most likly hand is Ax.

But he went all in as soon as an A hit.

I'd say your beat for sure.

Just because you do the right thing and give him bad outs doesnt mean he cant hithis hand.

ps: I think that going all in on the turn would have been better, but that I think thats might be just because I know he is going all in on the river.

[arkana]

Easy call on the river.

Think you played it fine.

[BobbySalami]

He probably thought his A high was good the whole time.....altough your probably beat, 7:1 on your money looks like a good price to call there.

I dont think you could have played it much better.

[Laeelin]

Id want 10:1 before I'd call there.

Any other card and I would call.

The only thing you beat here is a bluff, and this is the last place I'd expect to see a bluff.

[wek_sos]

Yup you played it right, I would put him on a Ax like Laeelin said. Call it down.

BTW: anyone know the odds of flopping quads with any two live cards?

[Laeelin]

Anyone agree with me on the fold?

I dont think 7-1 is good enough odds to call. I think you would need 10-1 befoer calling.

I'm 90% sure i'm beat here.... not 85% sure, not 75% sure, but 90% sure.

[arkana]

Im not 90% sure, so Im calling that. You only have to win one in 8 hands to break even on that call.

[BobbySalami]

What, you would have to be around 85% sure dont ya?...I think thats enough grey area there to make the call, but then again I am the guy that started the "why do I make bad calls?" thread..........

All-in bluff with a scare card? Call.

You're in too deep, you can't get away and he can still show you a pocket pair.

[Laeelin]

I think i'm out voted

[EricE]

Anyone agree with me on the fold?

I dont think 7-1 is good enough odds to call. I think you would need 10-1 befoer calling.

I'm 90% sure i'm beat here.... not 85% sure, not 75% sure, but 90% sure.

Heck, I folded on the turn. The logic being that I have put very little in the pot and, as such, little to loose if I fold. I don’t like the fact that I may put money in on all streets only to see him turn over a 9. <shrug> I’m week but my style of poker is lower variance than most…I think.

[Laeelin]

All-in bluff with a scare card? Call.

I dont call a $5.60 bet on the river with a $35 pot an all-in bluff.

Sure, he could be bluffing, but not when his bet is so small comapired to the pot... even fish know you need to bet more than 1/7 the pot on a bluff.

He thinks he has the best hand here.

He thinks that he is going to win.

[PokerPatNEU]

Yup you played it right, I would put him on a Ax like Laeelin said. Call it down.

BTW: anyone know the odds of flopping quads with any two live cards?

Assuming no one else at the table holds one of either of your cards, the odds of *flopping* quads is (Odds of first flopped card matching one of your two cards)*(Odds of second flopped card matching the first flopped one)*(Odds of third flopped card matching)

so (6/50)*(2/49)*(1/48) = 12/117,600. or roughly one in ten thousand.

[PokerPatNEU]

He might not even have an ace. He could have anything from a lower PP to KQ to who knows. You checked the river so he knows you are thinking he has an ace, so he goes all in. Either that or you're thinking he may have actually had the 9. You show him that you arent entirely confident in your hand, and it opens up the door for him to AI (even though he doesnt have much left). You may be beaten by A with a weak x, but i think more than 1/7 times this is a bluff because you showed weakness on the river.

[Greedo017]

i don't believe there is actually this much discussion over whether or not to call on this river. folding here would be one of the worst folds i've seen in a long long time.

[Laeelin]

At least this isnt a very important decision. =)

At worse calling is slightly -EV, and at best, slightly +EV.

I am starting to think that calling is SLIGHTLY +EV, but only very very slightly.

[Greedo017]

At least this isnt a very important decision. =)

At worse calling is slightly -EV, and at best, slightly +EV.

I am starting to think that calling is SLIGHTLY +EV, but only very very slightly.

at worst, folding is very -EV. at best, folding is break even/slightly +EV.

at worst, calling is break even/slightly -EV. at best, calling is very +EV.



And, to add in some reasoning behind this. you need to win 14% of the time for this to be a good call. Odds are, if you're wrong about having a winner, they're going to actually have you beat less or much less than 85% of the time, not more or much more. I'd be very surprised if you were losing 97% of the time here, but you could potentially be winning 50% of the time.

[SinkRox]

With them pot odds I went into the tank and made a crying call...

I did concider folding for the fact that someone mentioned: He's not expecting his allin to bluff me off the pot and thinks he has the best hand.... only Id imagine some ignorant players may do this with lower pkt pairs.

He showed 89s.

incidently I lost another stack with kk vs 89s earlier, only that time i got both our stacks in when i was ~95%(?) favourite at the turn and he had 1 out for quads! Poker eh.

[Laeelin]

See!!

I was right!

*pretends that you can tell if a move is profitable with only one hand*

[EricE]

With them pot odds I went into the tank and made a crying call...

I did concider folding for the fact that someone mentioned: He's not expecting his allin to bluff me off the pot and thinks he has the best hand.... only Id imagine some ignorant players may do this with lower pkt pairs.

He showed 89s.

incidently I lost another stack with kk vs 89s earlier, only that time i got both our stacks in when i was ~95%(?) favourite at the turn and he had 1 out for quads! Poker eh.

Hahahaha I owned you all. I lost $5.20 on this and all you callers lost $19.8

Cool. Then I earned more calling in this spot for all eternity because I'm EV+

[TopThis]

If you look at his play preflop I think you have to consider putting him on
89s 910s J9s.

The flop isn't bad for your hand, but I think people should realize it takes 1 card and 1 card only in any of the other 4 players hands and you're pretty much drawing dead to running kings.

Possible for BigLarry or krissyd to stay in given their position with a suited connector? You bet it is.

You're in bad position in this hand, and you get no information about your opponents hand by playing it this way. Your opponent could have TT-QQ and is willing to call you down, or a 9 and you wouldn't know the difference because of how it was played.

With this kind of holding, I would want to keep the pot smallish because of how easy it is that you are beat. This means not betting 75% of the pot on the flop and then 65% on the turn commiting yourself to going AI on the river and getting no information about your opponents hand.

Keep the pot small with marginal holdings out of position.

[ensign_lee]

By the time the river comes around, you need to call that. Otherwise, your betting's fine. He probably has a PP or Ax, hopefully the former, but if he sucked out, he sucked out. what are you going to do?

[rebuyman]

Id want 10:1 before I'd call there.

Any other card and I would call.

The only thing you beat here is a bluff, and this is the last place I'd expect to see a bluff.

fourth nine is probably worse than an ace here.

Id want 10:1 before I'd call there.

Any other card and I would call.

The only thing you beat here is a bluff, and this is the last place I'd expect to see a bluff.

fourth nine is probably worse than an ace here.

lol counterfeitting in that spot would be brutal

[Greedo017]

"Keep the pot small with marginal holdings out of position."

third nuts, beaten only by pocket aces and quad 9's, is marginal?

[TopThis]

there are 4 other people in the hand acting behind him. It only takes 1 card out of the 8 they hold.

I rule out AA based on preflop and flop play and go ahead and say KK is the 2nd nuts on the flop and turn (river here doesn't matter based on how the hand was played).

Its the same as having KK on an AAA23 board
or
Kh on a 4-heart unpaired board.

sure it's the 2nd nuts but your oppnents just need 1 card to beat you. when you look at the type of hands that would play this way (9 or QQ), KK falls in the middle, i.e. marginal. Anything other than KK QQ and a 9 should fold out on the turn.

let me reiterate, 4 players behind you, only needing 1 card out of their 8 to have you drawing to running kings. When it's that likely, I don't commit myself until I find out if the 9 is out there by playing the flop and turn smaller. If you play it smaller the guy with the 9 has to reraise you on the turn to make the pot big enough so that if hero calls it makes them commited to calling AI on the river.

[Cocco_Bill]

Easy call on the river, no doubt. It makes more sense that he was playing a hand like TT or JJ than calling you down with Ax all the way to the river. Even without any reasoning at all pot odds combined with your hand strength make this a must call.

[Cocco_Bill]

Five handed, villain is a loose aggressive, takes stabs at many pots.

Players:
Dayfly (EUR 210,93 in seat 1)
-- (EUR 85,35 in seat 3)
Villain (EUR 115,75 in seat 4)
-- (EUR 28,25 in seat 5)
-- (EUR 79,70 in seat 6)

Dealer: Villain
Small Blind: -- (0,50)
Big Blind: -- (1,00)

Dayfly was dealt: :Qc: - :Qh:

Dayfly Raise (4,00)
-- Fold
Villain Call (4,00)
-- Fold
-- Fold
-- Fold

Flop - -

Dayfly Bet (8,00)
Villain Raise (16,00)
Dayfly Call (8,00)

Turn - - -
Dayfly Bet (20,00)
Villain Call (20,00) pauses a while and then calls

River - - - - :Ah:

Pot ~~ EUR 80

Dayfly Check
Villain All-in (75,75)

Dayfly?

Easy fold?

[PokerPatNEU]

Painful fold but i think one you have to make. Could be a busted flush draw bluff...Could be 88, 4x, A4, A8, which all have you beat. He'd probly check behind with KK/JJ/another QQ. You'd have to be right > 1 in 3 times to make this a +EV call.

[SinkRox]

a friend of mine is very capable of pulling this move with no cards what-so-ever (he actually plays 10/20 NL) and ive seen someone call his river pot bet with 2nd highest pair cos they knew his game and read him for a pure bluff.... maybe this guy has pulled this bluff but without seeing him do it before I'd fold.

[Cocco_Bill]

a friend of mine is very capable of pulling this move with no cards what-so-ever (he actually plays 10/20 NL) and ive seen someone call his river pot bet with 2nd highest pair cos they knew his game and read him for a pure bluff.... maybe this guy has pulled this bluff but without seeing him do it before I'd fold.

It is very unlike me to call this, against most opponents I wouldn't even consider it. However, I've played this particular opponent many times and I know he is capable of making big moves.

After leading out the turn I felt that my hand was reasonably well defined as an overpair, so I think he would have probably folded A8, A9 and certaintly AK AQ(non spades). I also believe he would have raised me with a set or trip4's on the turn.

The river looks like he has a monster and is disguising it as a bluff or it IS a bluff. If the ace gave him the best hand he would probably check behind or bet for value, with TT JJ QQ KK he is checking behind, but with a missed draw he would have to bluff here or concede the hand. His style is not to let the hand go so I strongly suspected a bluff.

I call, villain shows :Ks: :Qs:

[PokerPatNEU]

Nh

[SinkRox]

nice read and nice call wp