A very debatable move

$10 freezeout with 1676 entrants, 275 players left, 180 play.

MP2 and MP3 are both definite LAggs who have just been on raise/fold mode. They have been limping occasionally and have both shown down a limped hand, which was either a low PP or garbage.

Both the blinds are playing very weak, seemingly just trying to fold their way into the money.

So I thought this was a low risk steal that would pay off big because of the extra chips in the pot, I had a feeling that if I hadn't have punched it right there I could've gotten a call from one of the LAggy limps. I needed it to look least like a steal as possible.

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t400 (9 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

BB (t4245)
UTG (t3427)
UTG+1 (t8815)
MP1 (t11400)
MP2 (t10345)
MP3 (t18148)
CO (t23175)
Hero (t8220)
SB (t7291)

Preflop: Hero is Button with 9, Q.
3 folds, MP2 calls t400, MP3 calls t400, 1 fold, Hero raises to t8195, SB calls t7066 (All-In), 1 fold, MP2 folds, MP3 folds.

Flop: (t16261) T, Q, K (2 players, 1 all-in)

Turn: (t16261) 3 (2 players, 1 all-in)

River: (t16261) 8 (2 players, 1 all-in)

Final Pot: t16261

Results in white below:
SB has Ad Ah (one pair, aces).
Hero has 9h Qc (one pair, queens).
Outcome: SB wins t15157. Hero wins t1104.

We had a huge debate about this hand on IRC last night, ended up with 2 people agreeing that it was a good play, and 2 people disagreeing that it wasn't a good play.

I think this is a low risk steal and I just happened to run into one of the blind's monsters. What do you think?

[nme]

i think that with that amount of chips risking your tourney life on that steal is un needed. If i cant steal and still have chips left. ie 3-4x bb to induce the blinds to fold then i usuallly dont. Many oppourtunities will come up where you can steal with alot less risk involved. Eventuall you DO get caught by those blinds. Its just a matter of time, and when that happens i like to be able to dump it and move on. While i do feel stealing is a vital part of building and keeping your stack fat. Id never push all in with trash on a steal. Id either push all in with a decent hand. or only try a steal with 3-4x BB. If the SB and BB are LAGG. Then i would wait for a spot where i can steal for a cheaper price. While the 800 chips would have helped decently. the failed steal hurt you alot more. but thats just my
opinion.

the summary of it all is. I think it is a move that will probably work most of the time. but i dont feel it was a needed risk. the pros of stealing to pot do not outweigh the cons associated with getting caught.

[pantherhound]

IMO it's not low risk. The downside is worse than the upside, and those players are unpredictable. With 2 limpers as well there is twice the unpredictability.

You're committing your whole stack to win a small percentage of it, the amount you win over time with this strategy is probably less than what you lose on the occasion you run into danger and get busted.

IMO it's not low risk. The downside is worse than the upside, and those players are unpredictable. With 2 limpers as well there is twice the unpredictability.

You're committing your whole stack to win a small percentage of it, the amount you win over time with this strategy is probably less than what you lose on the occasion you run into danger and get busted.

I reckon I'm winning this hand 90%+ of the time.

Only hands I'm running into are an AA/KK/(QQ?) from the blinds.

With my reads, I am 99.9% certain that MP2 and MP3 will fold.

That makes my EV here just about positive, as I am winning just over 10% of my stack on this move.

[pantherhound]

Not judging, but I don't think you can be THAT sure that they'd fold. Plus, this is a very specific situation. Two loose aggressives who had just changed down gears, and two weak blinds. Not sure how many other situations like that you'd find yourself in to win the scenario enough times to make back your money.

Not judging, but I don't think you can be THAT sure that they'd fold.

Yes I can, I was absolutely definitely certain that they would fold.

[Sed]

I like the move but think that a 5-6xBB raise will take that pot just as often when you are not beat and leave you room to get out without being short stacked...

I don't think that a high risk all-in move like that is necessary yet. If you were ~10-12 BB range, push. If the blinds' stacks are less than 50% of mine I'll push on that steal but, with stacks close to your size left, I would go with a 5-6xBB raise. Someone of similar stack size has to either have a monster, have a crazy ESP-type read on you, or be absolutely insane to come over the top of you in that situation.

- sed

[Iconoclastic]

I don't mind the move, but usually if you have a monster you would raise to ~2k, no? not pushing...

[nme]

you say you will win 90% of the time. the problem is if you do this move 10 times and lose once. youre done. because each of the times youre going ALL IN. So in the end you lose.

[Miffed22001]

20bbs
no need to steal there or then
Close enough to the money that if you raise only a good hand is calling so no need to push or near push either.
I suppsoe its the only getting called by a hand that beats me scenario?

[Arjonius]

you say you will win 90% of the time. the problem is if you do this move 10 times and lose once. youre done. because each of the times youre going ALL IN. So in the end you lose.

Plus the EV calculation places no value on your tournament life.

[fjuanl]

I agree with Dr. Sed. It looks more believable that you do have a monster. The only negative I can see is that hands like TT and JJ might call to see a flop. But I still think this is the best play because :

1. Its less risk than an all in

2. you still have a very good chance of winning the pot

3. If you get caught, you wont be losing all your chips

[drmcboy]

This looks exactly like a steal.

This looks exactly like a steal.

My line is to make it not look like a steal.

The table will have though 'wow, 2 loose players in the pot before him and he still pushes, he MUST have a monster'.

[drmcboy]

that's silly

why would you put 8k in there with a monster?

Someone still has to big up a big hand to call, no doubt there, but they all want too.

but they all want too.

But they simply can't unless they have a monster. That is the beauty of pushing here.

[drmcboy]

agree 100 %, my point is just you say you don't to make it look that way, it looks that way.

[Miffed22001]

but it still isnt really a place where you need to go GAMBooL is it really?

[ender555]

i didn't read any replies.. but this move is plain ugly and not even close to debatable... yes the people limping will fold and probably the blinds, but it's just not worth it on the off chance some players behind u will call with JJ-AA, and probly AK. who knows. 10 dollar freeze u could see many worse calls.

Definitely wait for a better spot to make a move in, or at least leave yourself room to escape.

[nme]

me and dwarfy had a big argument about this on irc. i told him it was a bad move. he told me i dont know what im talking about. Im glad so many people have no idea what they are talking about.

[DWDuck]

I'm not a BIG fan of the move, but it can be effective. Do it against more medium stacks though, not stacks that can squash you like bug.

Darkwing

[jmontis]

I said it was a good move until I saw the chip counts. 8220 in chips would allow him to do a 2k bluff for a fair amount of chips and still be "alive" if he got raised...

[chardrian]

Most people need to work on their aggression. You are not one of these people. My biggest leak to start was being too aggressive (not knowing when to dial it back). I don't mind an aggressive raise there (say 2K) - but there really was no need to push.

[loanhorse]

I am a fan of this move in a tourney but these conditions must apply...
I am late in the tournament
the blinds are high
my m is low
My stack can do some damage (folding equity) .

Choosing to push right here was a horrible decision. Dwarf you can wait for a better time to put your chips in the pot. Yes, you should be looking for oppurtunities to build your stack, but this is flat out a horrible time to push, giving yourself no escape plan when your stack did not even need the chips that bad. This is not controversial, this is an easy fold.

[gabe]

i might do it this play alot from the BB, but never from the button with 2 people left to act behind me

[Galapogos]

I don't like this either for the simple fact being at this point in the tournament people love to push. Especially if you come up against an idiot like me who's feeling the heat with a $5000 stack and looking for any reason to push and get it over with or get back in it instantley rather than wait out a slow death. I'm calling you here with J10s and up. And so are plenty of others. At this point in an MTT I find all-in is just as effective as a big raise for a blind steal, cause if they're calling you for some they're calling you for it all. And with a hand like this you don't plan on playing post-flop without hitting huge, so at least you can get out with a usable stack when you get a call.

[TanO]

I would've raised to about 2,400 i think, then if either of the tight blinds come over the top u know u can fold and the laggs you already said were folding to raises. Committing all your chips on a steal is not low risk, betting 1/4 of your stack here is enough to take it down if no-one has good cards.

[Laeelin]

but it still isnt really a place where you need to go GAMBooL is it really?

Thats how I feel about it...

Sure the move looks good on paper, but your risking everything when you dont need to....

But then, you probally have a much better MTT record than I do =)

[Kraythe]

Well Q9 isnt that good of a hand anyway. Its a straight draw really because any aces or kings beats the queen even if she hits. What you need then are three queens or the straight. Why? Because the odds of someone playing a hand with A and anything else is high. Somewhat lower but appreciable is the odds of someone playing K anything. If they are suited then the odds go up.

Now to the question of stealing. Lets say you just wanted to steal regardless of your cards. Then you did fine. You simply ran into a brick wall of someone with aces in the small blind. Remember that when you are on the button you ARENT on the button pre-flop, so you dont know what the other guys will do in the blinds.

My opinion. They call, you raise, SB raises all in, you fold.

The mistake you made is in calling an all in bet with an attempted steal and a weak hand. People that go all in are generally not playing T6 offsuit.

Raising and then folding is difficult but an essential skill to master. You are never trapped in a hand, only trapped in your mind.

[TanO]

The mistake you made is in calling an all in bet with an attempted steal and a weak hand. People that go all in are generally not playing T6 offsuit.

He didn't call an All-In, he went allin first, that was the mistake.

Like you say a raise and then a fold to the SB's All-In would have been the correct play IMO