healthy stack with good pair and low FE during bubble

[Iconoclastic]

Caribbean Sun $10+1, ~350 at start, 40 pay, ~60 left

------HAND 5------
Game #889779043: Texas Hold'em No Limit (300/600) - 2005/08/19 - 22:40:53 (ET)
Table "$4000GTD 958764 - 5" Seat 6 is the button.
Seat 1: Welsh_ben (17732.50 in chips)
Seat 2: arum (5762.50 in chips)
Seat 3: sancaetan (4872.50 in chips)
Seat 4: dcd657 (14110 in chips)
Seat 5: Borge (5085 in chips)
Seat 6: H_bomb (18345 in chips)
Seat 7: Smatty (10552.50 in chips)
Seat 9: urnam0 (13830 in chips)
Seat 10: HotPaul (24392.50 in chips)
Smatty: posts the ante 75
urnam0: posts the ante 75
HotPaul: posts the ante 75
Welsh_ben: posts the ante 75
arum: posts the ante 75
sancaetan: posts the ante 75
dcd657: posts the ante 75
Borge: posts the ante 75
H_bomb: posts the ante 75
Smatty: posts small blind 300
urnam0: posts big blind 600
----- HOLE CARDS -----
dealt to urnam0 [Jc Js]
HotPaul (unknown, see next entry): calls 600
Welsh_ben (complete unknown as I just moved to the table): raises to 3600
arum: folds
sancaetan: folds
dcd657: folds
Borge: folds
H_bomb: folds
Smatty: folds
urnam0: ... (I'm a healthy stack, but I got it by being Aggressive; at this stage of a MTT, there aren't many crazy people left, and his raise as a healthy stack into another healthy stack's BB suggests he has a monster, so I have very little folding equity, besides if he was raising with a lower PP I wouldn't want him to fold either; probably up against AA-QQ, AK, which I neither have equity nor set value against with his large raise)





















urnam0: raises to 13755 and is all-in
HotPaul: folds
Welsh_ben: calls 10155
----- FLOP ----- [7h 4d 3s]
----- TURN ----- [7h 4d 3s][Ts]
----- RIVER ----- [7h 4d 3s Ts][Ah]
----- SHOW DOWN -----
urnam0: shows [Jc Js] (A Pair of Jacks, Ace high)
Welsh_ben: shows [Ad As] (Three of a kind, Aces, Ten high)
Welsh_ben collected 29085 from Main pot
----- SUMMARY -----
Total pot 29085 Main pot 29085 Rake 0
Board [7h 4d 3s Ts Ah]
Seat 1: Welsh_ben showed [Ad As] and won (29085) with Three of a kind, Aces, Jack high
Seat 2: arum folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: sancaetan folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 4: dcd657 folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 5: Borge folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: H_bomb (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 7: Smatty (small blind) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 10: HotPaul folded before Flop (didn't bet)

I would have not imagined I should fold JJ to a single raise, but it seems like the best play here, against an unknown opponent.

[Iconoclastic]

Anyone?

[Aquinas]

I fold hes raising to 6bb. At best he has AK. U have 23 bb, and 6 is a significant portion of it. U can't afford a call. Hence it's push or fold. I'd fold.

[mgobluefb]

At best, you're a coinflip. Do you really want to risk it all on a coinflip at this point?

[drmcboy]

I'm probably calling the raise, then going broke on the flop.

[ilikeaces86]

Im confused by the hand history.... what did he raise too?

[Iconoclastic]

Im confused by the hand history.... what did he raise too?

1 EP limper, he raised to 3600 to go

[chardrian]

"At best you're a coinflip" my ass - you don't think someone with 77-TT; AJs is making this move late in a tourney?? I'm not saying you are in the clear, this is definitely a tough play - but you can't say this is a definite coinflip. It is just as likely that you are dominating the raiser as it is that he is dominating you.

[drmcboy]

"At best you're a coinflip" my ass

[ilikeaces86]

"At best you're a coinflip" my ass

if you thought it was a coinflip I would instantly call this your getting great pott odds to do so.