M VALUES - Don't mention them again until you read this post

[lambchopdc]

Ok, everyone has gone a little crazy with this lately....and I am beginning to see that people have missed the true significance of the M value. I know I am not the most experienced FTR member but I think my knowledge on this subject can be of use to some of you. Ok lets go:

First off, for those of you who don't know....M = Your Stack/Initial Pot or M = (Your Stack)/(Big Blind+Small Blind+ Antes). I believe the problem has come from people who don't understand WHY this statistic matters. There are several reasons in fact why it matters:

1. LOWER RAISES BECOME INSIGNIFICANT - If your M is low, lets say 10 or lower, you are getting to a point where smaller raises other than All In have you pot committed already and will end up hurting you because it makes the pot odds better for someone to call you. By going all-in you have a better chance of being folded to and stealing the pot. Personally, the only time I raise anything less than All In with an M of 10 or lower is with monster hands where I want callers. (I.E. AA or KK). Other than that, i'm looking for QUALITY hands to push with (i.e. AKs, AQs, etc.)

2. LEVERAGE - This is perhaps the single most important factor of M value. How many times are you ultrashortstacked late in a tourney...M value of <5, you push with KK and two big stacks call you with A2o or some crap, hit their ace and its bye-bye tournament? Why does this happen? Read Ripptyde's post and you will understand. Lets say you have 5000 chips, blinds are 750/1500, leaving with you an M of 2.22, you push all in....Big stack has 56000 chips, looks down at A2o...should he call you? Damn right he should call you..its only 10% of his stack for an opportunity to knock someone out and put himself one step closer to final table. Typically these callers figure you have KK,QQ,JJ, etc. and figure what the hell...I have an Ace to bust him, lets gamble. The point I am getting to is that when your M value decreases, you lose leverage on your opponents. Lets say your M was 10 and you had 22500 chips, now the guy has to call half his stack off with his A2o...not likely to happen. So what does all this mean?

Look for live, creative hands to push with....IN POSITION AND INTO AN UNRAISED POT...before your M gets too low that you lose leverage. By doing this you will most likely steal the blinds (WHICH IS YOUR GOAL)...the WORST case scenario is that you get called by maybe 1 opponent and take two live cards to the flop). Remember...your goal is to steal the pot with these hands.....NOT TO INTENTIONALLY TAKE THE COINFLIP.

3. KNOW WHEN YOU ARE REALLY SHORTSTACKED - I don't know how many times I see people suffer a big suckout early in an MTT, get knocked down to 400 chips with 10/15 blinds, and then push all-in the first good hand they get. Yes...400 chips sounds like nothing.....but your M value is 16....you have plenty of hands to see. You can still call and raise as normal. I've gotten knocked down to 400 chips first hand and was chip leader by the break. The point is to use this value to remind yourself how your stack is doing. I typically use M value instead of tourney average to avoid this same TILTY dilemma.

Ok so now that we've covered what M values really tell you...what should you remember about applying them:

A. NEVER EVER CALL OFF YOUR ENTIRE STACK PREFLOP WITH LESS THAN GROUP 0 OR 1 HANDS.....EVER!!! - M value theory is based on you being the pusher.

B. When you need to push, wait until you are in mid-late position, and all action has FOLDED to you (FEAR THE UTG LIMPER....TRUST ME).

C. NEVER EVER CALL OFF YOUR ENTIRE STACK PREFLOP WITH LESS THAN GROUP 0 OR 1 HANDS.....EVER!!!

D. Remember the goal is to steal the blinds, not to take the coinflip.

E. When it comes time to push....marginal hands like say....87s ARE better than hands like K3o....why? Because the last thing you need is to be called by a dominating hand. 87s vs. AKo has better odds than K3o vs. AKo. Anyone calling you for half their stack will most likely be holding a group 0-4 hand. With the K3o vs. Groups 0-4, your king has a high possibility of being dominated by a better hand like AK...leaving u to hit two 3s on the board or some miracle straight. With 87s you have 2 live cards with lots of possibilities to catch a hand......IF YOU GET CALLED.

F. NEVER EVER CALL OFF YOUR ENTIRE STACK PREFLOP WITH LESS THAN GROUP 0 OR 1 HANDS.....EVER!!!

G. Trust your reads and their stacks. If the BB has 10 times your stack and is known to be defensive of his blinds.....FOLD....don't ask questions....JUST FOLD! Pick the moderately stacked tight players on the table and push against their blinds when in position. (I would recommend tight players with 2-3 times your stack for leverage reasons, any more you are an easy call, any less they are looking to double up and most likely will call.)

H. NEVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER EVER CALL OFF YOUR ENTIRE STACK PREFLOP WITH LESS THAN GROUP 0 OR 1 HANDS.....EVER!!!

Ok..well now that my ranting is done for the moment...bring on the discussion. I have plenty more to add as I know I didn't cover everything here.

[bluedevil907]

You might want to edit your starting M equation, the way you have it worded now M could equal 30 at the beginning of the tourney and 3000 by the end. Thus, add in the (Your stack)/Initial pot and you should be good to go.

I never used the term "M" for this calculation, but I have done it for a long time to figure out where I stand in terms of raising/calling/pushing/folding, especially mid-game where the blinds can catch up to you. A lot of the "M" based tactics won't work if you fall too far in early-mid game because your stack will affect others in an almost insignificant way if they call. If your M is 5 with 10/20 blinds, you're really not much of a factor in the hand, even a starting stack has 10x your chips. This can benefit you however, as early on players would likely call with lower quality hands and you can double your M up to 10, whereas later on you're shooting for the blinds to pump your M to 6.

-EDIT-
Ah, and one more thing, you should also be watching the blind increases, because your M might drastically change at the next level, so be careful not to burn yourself on a hand and really put yourself out of the running in the next level.

[lambchopdc]

You might want to edit your starting M equation, the way you have it worded now M could equal 30 at the beginning of the tourney and 3000 by the end. Thus, add in the (Your stack)/Initial pot and you should be good to go.

I never used the term "M" for this calculation, but I have done it for a long time to figure out where I stand in terms of raising/calling/pushing/folding, especially mid-game where the blinds can catch up to you. A lot of the "M" based tactics won't work if you fall too far in early-mid game because your stack will affect others in an almost insignificant way if they call. If your M is 5 with 10/20 blinds, you're really not much of a factor in the hand, even a starting stack has 10x your chips. This can benefit you however, as early on players would likely call with lower quality hands and you can double your M up to 10, whereas later on you're shooting for the blinds to pump your M to 6.

Equation fixed, thank you for pointing that out. Very good point on the early vs. late game. M tactics are definetely meant for mid-late tourney. Very good points on early tourney shortstack advantages too.

[Miffed22001]

why not just keep it simple with
my stack= 33bbs.
short stack <20bbs
medium stack 20-60 bbs
big stack 60bbs+

not great numbers but nice and simple

[Hubris1]

M is just a formulaic extension of Sklansky's gap theory he wrote about in Tourney Strategy for Advanced Players. Even Sklansky's "You need to have a better hand to call than raise" is essentially "first in vigorish" minus the eccentric name.

[studboyjoe]

I agree totally with you when it comes to M=5 or less. At 10 I don't
always feel as pressured, especially mid-tourney. Is there any place
for the 1/2 your stack pf raise, followed by a continuation bet of the rest of your stack? Is there any advantage at all to this approach at
M=10? I don't have any real opinion on it, other than i have occasionally done this at 10 and won a decent pot from the pf raise caller/ flop folder most of the time. This only works playing against a middle stack.

[lambchopdc]

why not just keep it simple with
my stack= 33bbs.
short stack <20bbs
medium stack 20-60 bbs
big stack 60bbs+

not great numbers but nice and simple

I agree with this philosophy as well, not to argue against it, the main reason for this post was because the main "popular thing" lately has been the M values from HoH2.

[lambchopdc]

I agree totally with you when it comes to M=5 or less. At 10 I don't
always feel as pressured, especially mid-tourney. Is there any place
for the 1/2 your stack pf raise, followed by a continuation bet of the rest of your stack? Is there any advantage at all to this approach at
M=10? I don't have any real opinion on it, other than i have occasionally done this at 10 and won a decent pot from the pf raise caller/ flop folder most of the time. This only works playing against a middle stack.

There are only a few situations in which I would pull this move:

A. Against a player that I know to be loose pre-flop and super timid post flop.

B. Hands such as AA, KK where I don't mind my opponent seeing a flop.

The trouble with this move is that you are allowing your opponent to see a flop when you already plan on going all in. Possible situation to think about:

You are holding QQ, you bet half your stack, opponent holds ATs, he senses steal with your half stack raise, makes the call, A on the flop, u push, your dead. On the other hand, you put your entire stack on the line, he has to determine preflop whether his AT is going to hold on, a lot of hands dominate AT so there is a good chance a decent player lays this down rather than call off half his stack. Not to mention, if u are up against the BB, he acts first, so what do u do on the flop when he puts u in? Lay it down and be stuck with M of 5 or call knowing u probably are beat? I would go for the push rather than set my own trap.

[DWDuck]

why not just keep it simple with
my stack= 33bbs.
short stack <20bbs
medium stack 20-60 bbs
big stack 60bbs+

There are several reasons why not to "keep it simple" like this. Depending on where you play, if there are antes, your stack related to the big blind doesn't necessarily mean as much. I mean... if you have a stack of 2000, and blinds are 100/200 with 25 antes, then every orbit you're putting in over 500 chips. This gives you an M of less than 5. On Party with blinds of 100/200, your M is still 7 in this situation. A subtle difference, but a difference. On Stars, people fail to consider the value of the antes enough.

One thing I'm not sure was mentioned in this post.... M reflects (at a full table) the number of orbits you have before you are blinded out.

Additionally, while you should keep track of the average stack size in the tourney, this number is FAR less important than your stack related to the blinds and antes. People tend to get far to excited about their stack relative to the average stack. I have been FT in several tournaments where I languished below average stack for a while. Don't focus on this so much. Keep track of your M, and play with that in mind.

It is important to start pushing before you lose fold equity. People wonder why I'm pushing K7s with a stack of 50000 and blinds+antes at 2000/4000+500 (hypothetical example). While my stack seems large... I need to keep accumulating chips to stay ahead of the blinds.

One thing lambchopdc didn't mention (I don't think). While ideally you'd like to push in later position, sometimes the opposite is better. Consider the situation where your stack is 500 and blinds are 50/100 and you're UTG. Suppose you get J9s. I say push here. "Are you crazy???" you might say. Maybe. But right now the big blind needs to call off 400 to win 650. Not great odds. Supopse now you fold this hand and the blinds pass you by. Suddenly your M has gone from 3.3 to 2.3. Your fold equity has gone down significantly. When your M starts nearing 3, you should be looking to push whenever the table has folded to you (including UTG) rather than letting your M drop.

Ok... I'm rambling, but like lambchop I think this is a large hole in many peoples games. I see too many people complaining about being "blinded out". This should never happen. The only reason I ever have an M of 2 is if I get called on a push by somebody with an M of 3.

Darkwing

[jmontis]

I agree with dw, yesterday at my $10 freeze final table, I had the biggest stack at 27 bb... and those guys were folding like crazy to my raises.

I ended up 3rd because of how much raising I was doing, and I got maybe 3 "good" hands the whole damn time. One guy with a decent stack got fed up and pushed A9 onto my JJ, and i won the flip, gave me a healthy position for the money.

[stragf]

Great Post. Thanks

[chardrian]

One guy with a decent stack got fed up and pushed A9 onto my JJ, and i won the flip, gave me a healthy position for the money.

JJ ain't no flip against A9 - u was dominating my man, which is why raising is GooT.

[Swinggcat]

While ideally you'd like to push in later position, sometimes the opposite is better.

I couldn`t agree more with DWDuck, and I`ve written it here in a previous post.

You are more likely to get called on a push from button/CO position. You`re in a typical stealing position, and you know, people like to gamble.
I can`t count how many times my legitimate hands like AK got called by hands like J8, just to see him hitting a 8 by the river.

When you push all-in UTG, you'll called mostly by monsters like AA/KK/QQ, and you know, hands like that do not come that often.

But most of the time this push will succed more often than the late position push.

Swinggcat

[TanO]

But most of the time this push will succed more often than the late position push.

That's totally illogical.

There is a marginal chance that an early pos allin will get more respect than a late pos push, but it is marginal and its not going to work very often. In fact its only going to work if you've been super tight. If there are larger stacks on the table than you its even less likely to work.

Going AI from Early is obviously less likely to succeed than a late position push because there are 8 or 9 hands behind you that could call instead of just 2 or 3.

[digitaldoc]

As with any strategy, some variation in play is helpful to disguise the play. UTG pushing will work if used sparringly. With UTG push there are now 6 or 7 more players that could have a monster hand.

The nice thing about a low M value push even in late position, is that people can see what you are doing, but can only call you if they have a good hand. How many times have you sat in the BB with K9o and then the cutoff goes all in for half your stack? He's done this four times now and you know he's stealing...but what to do?

[lambchopdc]

One guy with a decent stack got fed up and pushed A9 onto my JJ, and i won the flip, gave me a healthy position for the money.

JJ ain't no flip against A9 - u was dominating my man, which is why raising is GooT.

Holdem Hi: 1712304 enumerated boards
cards win %win lose %lose tie %tie EV
As 9c 478911 27.97 1228458 71.74 4935 0.29 0.281
Jd Jh 1228458 71.74 478911 27.97 4935 0.29 0.719

I'll take 3:1 anyday of the week and Sunday lol.

[Swinggcat]

Going AI from Early is obviously less likely to succeed than a late position push

Sure you won't do it every orbit.

But 2 considerations here: First in Vigorish and Gap Concept.

[vqc]

Going AI from Early is obviously less likely to succeed than a late position push

Sure you won't do it every orbit.

But 2 considerations here: First in Vigorish and Gap Concept.

Wat about these considerations

1) people dont kno the gap concept
2) more people to wake up with real hands