3 left...2 AI's in front...what's your call?

[Chicago_Kid]

Tough one here...final 3, and I get AKs on Button. I'm third in chips...1st plays 37%, 2nd 27%, and 3rd 18%.

Middle stack goes AI, Big stack goes over the top. I felt that AKs was a monster/coinflip at worst, and I'm the chip leader if I win. Do you fold this, and chance that the Bigger stack will win?

PokerStars Game #2417591112: Tournament #11715798, Hold'em No Limit - Level X (400/800) - 2005/08/25 - 01:45:50 (ET)
Table '11715798 1' Seat #9 is the button
Seat 5: AceKing46217 (11899 in chips)
Seat 6: qben21 (21841 in chips)
Seat 9: DaChicagoKid (6760 in chips)
AceKing46217: posts the ante 50
qben21: posts the ante 50
DaChicagoKid: posts the ante 50
AceKing46217: posts small blind 400
qben21: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DaChicagoKid [Kc Ac]
DaChicagoKid: raises 1600 to 2400
AceKing46217: raises 8000 to 10400
qben21: raises 11391 to 21791 and is all-in
DaChicagoKid: calls 4310 and is all-in
AceKing46217: calls 1449 and is all-in
*** FLOP *** [9s 4c 7d]
*** TURN *** [9s 4c 7d] [6h]
DaChicagoKid said, "K"
*** RIVER *** [9s 4c 7d 6h] [2s]
DaChicagoKid said, "nh"
*** SHOW DOWN ***
AceKing46217: shows [3c Ah] (high card Ace)
qben21: shows [Qc Qs] (a pair of Queens)
qben21 collected 10278 from side pot
DaChicagoKid: shows [Kc Ac] (high card Ace)
qben21 collected 20280 from main pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot 30558 Main pot 20280. Side pot 10278. | Rake 0
Board [9s 4c 7d 6h 2s]
Seat 5: AceKing46217 (small blind) showed [3c Ah] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 6: qben21 (big blind) showed [Qc Qs] and won (30558) with a pair of Queens
Seat 9: DaChicagoKid (button) showed [Kc Ac] and lost with high card Ace

You're not a coinflip because one guy has a pair, another guy has Kx or Ax so you're actually barely EV+

equity (%) win (%) / tie (%)

Hand 1: 36.0907 % [ 00.35 00.01 ] { AcKc }
Hand 2: 09.4452 % [ 00.09 00.01 ] { Ah3c }
Hand 3: 54.4641 % [ 00.54 00.00 ] { QsQc }

Better to wait until you're heads up. The numbers wouldn't change much if the pair was fours anyway. Of course you could be a huge favorite if there is no pair...

[chardrian]

This is a tough one.
You can sit out and hope to jump up to 2nd place, sit out and stay in the same position if AceKing wins the top two just swap chip stacks essentially, or play and guarantee that you come in third or become the chip leader.

With your chip stack and the blinds coming at you next hand any way. I would play here. This is your chance to take the lead, and you came to win.

[Miffed22001]

I'd call
id be pretty sure i need a crad probably only an ace but your too short here.
if your second stack i'd fold but here its time to call and GAMBooL

[Chicago_Kid]

I'd call
if your second stack i'd fold but here its time to call and GAMBooL

This is how I was thinking. I was so short that I felt I should gamBle, as I'm only gonna last another 2-3 rounds. So it's either fold and most likely take third, or take a chance to take the lead, or finish third if I miss. I decided to choose the proactive option...

But I do appreciate that under normal circumstances, I'm likely Behind, per ioPq's calcs. In second place, or with more chips, I would not call.

Other arguments are welcome...

[drmcboy]

I'd just have pushed pre flop. You certainly can't fold if you want to win.

[Roco415]

I really don't agree...if you truly are playing to win, why would u call with aks against two opponents where you might be slight favorite...or you could be up against aces or kings... if it was just one opponent...i would definitely call/come over top...but you are going to go all in wiht ace high after two people r in...

four things could happen
a. you fold and the middle stack is takin out..ur guaranteed second money now and you only need to double up once to be in contention

b. you fold and middle stack doubles through chip leader and he only has 10 k left and the whole dynamic of the match changes

c. you call with a maximum of 40% of winning, and lose and go out third

d. you call and win, triple up to 18...but the midddle stack mightve won the side pot with chip leader and now hes still in so ur not guaranateeing urself anything for this risk


Personally with the blinds relatively low to ur stack..u still have about 5 or six rotations to find a better spot, you can steal blinds and possibly double up when ur sure to be a favorite...with two people all in, this seems like an easy fold...

[Xanadu]

I think this is a clear call. You are on the button, clearly stealing the blinds. The small blind says 'I'll have none of this' and raises you back near all-in. The BB decides he's good enough to call and figures 'we might as well decide this right here' and pushes the other 2 all-in. You have AKs 3 handed which is absolutely a huge hand ... if no pp is out against you (the odds are very good of this) you are a huge favorite to triple up. You at least slightly +EV with the hands they did have, and most of the time they won't have hands that good. This is too good an opportunity to get the chip lead to pass up.

[Aplomado]

I gotta agree with roco415 and don't understand the near-unaminous view that he should call

AK is a great hand heads up, but it's still a drawing hand and not that great when two people go all-in ahead of you, which (even 3-handed) often indicates a pair is out there. That means against the guy with a pair it's only a coin flip, which wouldn't be so bad if there wasn't ANOTHER hand all-in, meaning you become an underdog to win the pot most likely. You are short-stacked, but not THAT short-stacked and, again, the blinds aren't that big. I say you should be patient and wait for a time when you can be the aggressor and go heads up against someone. Why risk it now?

[drmcboy]

Are you people kidding? It's AK. he's getting a huge price from the pot and it's three handed, and you're folding?

[Aplomado]

AK is way overvalued. With two people all in ahead of you, you're almost certainly an underdog.

[BeatMeBad]

AK is way overvalued. With two people all in ahead of you, you're almost certainly an underdog.

AKs is a monster 3-handed. Do you want to win this thing or do you want wait til the other 2 lose it? Grow a set and push it all in.

[Aplomado]

AKs is a monster 3-handed. Do you want to win this thing or do you want wait til the other 2 lose it? Grow a set and push it all in.

Calling two all-ins, even three-handed, is a great way to lose a tournament. AK isn't a monster hand in this situation, you've got to think situationally and not say "well it's 3 handed i'm pushing no matter what happens." That's just dumb.

[Pyroxene]

Tough one here...final 3, and I get AKs on Button. I'm third in chips...1st plays 37%, 2nd 27%, and 3rd 18%.

Middle stack goes AI, Big stack goes over the top. I felt that AKs was a monster/coinflip at worst, and I'm the chip leader if I win. Do you fold this, and chance that the Bigger stack will win?
...
Seat 5: AceKing46217 (11899 in chips)
Seat 6: qben21 (21841 in chips)
Seat 9: DaChicagoKid (6760 in chips)
AceKing46217: posts the ante 50
qben21: posts the ante 50
DaChicagoKid: posts the ante 50
AceKing46217: posts small blind 400
qben21: posts big blind 800
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to DaChicagoKid [Kc Ac]
DaChicagoKid: raises 1600 to 2400
AceKing46217: raises 8000 to 10400
qben21: raises 11391 to 21791 and is all-in
DaChicagoKid: calls 4310 and is all-in
AceKing46217: calls 1449 and is all-in

you did not mention how they had played up to that point, but assuming they were decent card players I would fold.

When the SB essentially went ALL-IN against you, no big deal. But then the chip leader comes over the top absolutely knowing he is about to go to showdown with the SB. There is no reason in the world for him to call the SB's virtual ALL-IN unless he has a top notch premium hand. From his point of view, if he stays out he has a 50/50 chance of moving to a guarenteed 2nd because the SB takes you out. Worst case for him is the two of you essentially flip chips. But he jumps in knowing it is going to showdown and possibly going to showdown 3 way. That screams I have a premium hand.

So, the BB has TT-AA. The SB has either a pair or Ax. Putting some numbers into Poker Stove:

If you stay in:
You win: 33%
SB wins: 15%
BB wins: 52%

If you stay out:
SB wins: 26%
BB wins: 74%

By staying out you have a 74% chance of jumping from 18% to 27% winnings.

So, I would fold it.

[soupie]

Its a no brainer call once you had 2400 of your chips in with a raise on the button representing about 1/3 your stack. You simply didnt have the option to wimp out as you would have been left with only 5 big blinds.

If you were the BB and 2 people pile all in front of you, you certainly can fold AK in that spot. I routinely fold AK against all ins but raise all in with it rountinely as well.

Ak is a great raising hand with position, but a poor calling hand especially out of position. People that dont like the hand feel like they have to play it everytime they get it, which is why they hate it. I love the hand, but i like JJ too. I'm weird.

[BeatMeBad]

AKs is a monster 3-handed. Do you want to win this thing or do you want wait til the other 2 lose it? Grow a set and push it all in.

Calling two all-ins, even three-handed, is a great way to lose a tournament. AK isn't a monster hand in this situation, you've got to think situationally and not say "well it's 3 handed i'm pushing no matter what happens." That's just dumb.

Are you playing to win the tournament or finish 2nd?

[Aplomado]

Are you playing to win the tournament or finish 2nd?

Hard to win a tournament when you go all-in with an underdog hand. It's about picking your battles. I just think calling two all-ins with AK is a weak play here.

[Greedo017]

i could be wimpy here, but IMO if you fold this 100 times and call it 100 times, you're gonna end up with more money by folding.

[chardrian]

I think a lot of people are missing two points: 1) CDK already raised preflop and is now left with just over 4,000 chips (or just 5xBB); 2) CDK is shortstacked but winning a hand puts him in position to win this thing.

I happen to really like AK but I don't "overvalue it" - if I had been the chip leader here, I coulda folded AK preflop and let the small stacks battle it out. But the situation of this hand demands that CDK call here if he wants to win the tourney. If he's dying for that second place finish, then fine he can fold and hope for the best.

[drmcboy]

this makes me want to cry.

[Xanadu]

I think this is a really interesting problem, so I've used some of youse guys research and done some math using the simple ICM (each person's chance of 1st is proportional to the percentage of chips they have) to see what comes out. I've done some rounding as I was doing the math by hand.



First, the case where you fold:
We have a pot of 26200 with SB and BB in the pot and stacks of:
SB:0
BB: 9900
Button: 4300

Using Pyroxene's #s, we have 26% SB wins yielding:

26%(folds)
SB: 26200
BB: 9900
Button: 4300

The ICM gives us for the Button,
1st: 10%
2nd: 25%
3rd: 65%

We also have 74% BB wins:

74%(folds)
SB: 0
BB: 36100
Button: 4300

which gives us

1st: 10%
2nd: 90%

The payout is 37/27/18, so if we fold, we win:

.26(.1*.37+.25*.27+.65*.18)+.74(.1*.37+.9*.27)= 0.2648(folds)

Now, suppose we call. I am making an assumption here that when the Button wins, the SB and the BB will each take the side pot half the time. If AK wins by catching an A, the BB will also beat QQ. Sure, the BB will probably take it a little more than half, but it won't change the numbers much.

Using iopq's #s, we win 36%:

18%(call, SB takes sidepot)
SB: 10100
BB: 9900
Button: 20400

ICM gives us:

18%(call)
1st: 50%
2nd: 34%
3rd: 16%

18%(BB takes side pot)
SB: 0
BB: 20000
Button: 20400
1st: 50%
2nd: 50%

And 64% of the time we take 3rd.

So, for calling, we expect to gain:

.18(.5*.37+.34*.27+.16*.18)+.18(.5*.37+.5*.27)+.74 *.18= .2458(calls)

So, it looks like it is a close decision but folding takes it:

EV(folds): 26.48%
EV(calls): 24.58%

This is as the hands were dealt. I think it is reasonable to put one of our opponents on Ax and the other on a pp. But is there a reason to assume that it is the BB that has the pp? What happens if we assume it is equally likely for each to have the pp? This won't change the results if we call, but it changes them significantly if we fold. All we have to do is change the 26% and 74% in the first calculation to 50% each and we get:

.50(.1*.37+.25*.27+.65*.18)+.50(.1*.37+.9*.27)= .2508

This give us

EV(folds): 25.08%
EV(calls):24.58%

Almost dead even, but the fold still slightly ahead. So if we are right in thinking there is a pp out there, I couldn't fault either decision. This is such a close call that it makes sense that so many of us are on each side of the fence here. I actually think that in practice, the call is slightly ahead against the ranges of hands theSB and BB might have because the odds of winning if neither of our opponents has a pp go up so dramatically. For a really accurate analysis of this decision, we would need to know the odds that in this situation with typical players, that noone has a pocket pair. (Anyone out there have a huge database with an excellent search program?)

Remember: 'It's only a model'

[Xanadu]

woops. I typoed the formula for the calling expectation. I had:

.18(.5*.37+.34*.27+.16*.18)+.18(.5*.37+.5*.27)+.74 *.18= .2458(calls)

The .74 should be .64 for
.18(.5*.37+.34*.27+.16*.18)+.18(.5*.37+.5*.27)+.64 *.18= .2278(calls)

For ease of comparison:

Ev(calls): 22.78%
Ev(folds): 26.48%
Ev(folds, equal chance either opp has pp): 25.08%

So, still fairly close, but pretty clearly a fold if there is a pp out there. Probably pretty even if we consider the possible range of hands that SB and BB have.

[Gareth]

soupie you said what i was just thinking when reading this post.

[CBAT]

So what ended up happening? What did they have?

[Xanadu]

Um, try reading the initial message ... the results are there

[Chicago_Kid]

So what ended up happening? What did they have?

I got pwned.

[lamaros]

Fold.

Sure, the first guy has come over the top of your weakness and is pushing it, but the other guy is following up AI. Pretty good indication to me that he has a hand.

This was a nasty hand for you anyway though. If you went AI to begin with you'd probably get the same situation, as the A3 guy looks pretty loose and you wont see the other folding QQ. But as it was you should have let it go with the two of them committed. I'll fold many pocket pairs with two others basicly AI, AK is easy to throw away.

And despite what others say, 4k is enough to win still. If you steal some blinds on other hands and double up on another you're in even shape, no need to overvalue this hand.

Sure, if 1st paid 50% and 2nd paid 25% you might want to take it, but as it stands there's 50% more for second than third, and only about 35% more again for first.

Are you people kidding? It's AK. he's getting a huge price from the pot and it's three handed, and you're folding?

Pick the right time to do everything. In this situation the decision is actually MARGINALLY profitable. I mean, WOO you're getting a huge 2% advantage over the field. If you wait for a coinflip with a pair you have a better advantage. Well, I'd just root for the middle stack to bust.

[arkana]

Its a no brainer call once you had 2400 of your chips in with a raise on the button representing about 1/3 your stack. You simply didnt have the option to wimp out as you would have been left with only 5 big blinds.

If you were the BB and 2 people pile all in front of you, you certainly can fold AK in that spot. I routinely fold AK against all ins but raise all in with it rountinely as well.

He was getting 2.5:1 on his money (a lot of people are forgetting that he already had 2400 in the pot) with 1.85:1 odds of winning. If he folds he is left in a very bad spot and if he wins he is in great position. Easy call like soupie said.

[Xanadu]

I think everyone realizes the pot odds are there for the call, and earlier in the tournament the call would usually be clearly correct, but we are down to the final 3 and there is a pretty big difference between 2nd and 3rd place money. Just by sitting this out, you get a 50% chance of moving up to guaranteed 2nd. Those chips you have left are worth a lot more per chip than the ones in the pot because they guarantee you a seat at the table for the next hand, and there is an even chance that seat will be more valuable cause the mid stack will bust out. The whole question is whether the -EV(chips) move of folding is actually a +EV(tournament winnings) move. Turns out it's a close decision. Too close for the vast majority of players to calculate at the table and so close that either play is a very reasonable decision in the heat of a tournament.

[Chicago_Kid]

I think everyone realizes the pot odds are there for the call, and earlier in the tournament the call would usually be clearly correct, but we are down to the final 3 and there is a pretty big difference between 2nd and 3rd place money.

Soooo...why is this clearly a correct call early in a tourney?

I think this is an autofold early in a tourney, dependent upon chips that I have left. Early on, I would have to assume that I'll get more chances than AI with AK against two players...while in the situation in question, I'm short stacked and probably getting 3rd anyway, unless I get lucky.

[CrunchyNuts]

(Anyone out there have a huge database with an excellent search program?)

Basically, yes. This post is a reminder for me to run this situation through it when I get home. I ran a similar one last night for kicks, I think the results may suprize some folks.

You wouldn't happen to remember the payout for 1st 2nd and 3rd would ya? I'ma need that.

[chardrian]

Are you people kidding? It's AK. he's getting a huge price from the pot and it's three handed, and you're folding?

Pick the right time to do everything. In this situation the decision is actually MARGINALLY profitable. I mean, WOO you're getting a huge 2% advantage over the field. If you wait for a coinflip with a pair you have a better advantage. Well, I'd just root for the middle stack to bust.

Sure does help to know what everyone had after the hand is done huh?

He doesn't have much time to wait. If he folds here he is down to 4300 chips and has to pay 850 next round when he is BB. He HAS to call here. AKs is just too good of hand to fold. His mistake (although not huge) was his initial bet. He should have just pushed to start.

[chardrian]

(Anyone out there have a huge database with an excellent search program?)

Basically, yes. This post is a reminder for me to run this situation through it when I get home. I ran a similar one last night for kicks, I think the results may suprize some folks.

You wouldn't happen to remember the payout for 1st 2nd and 3rd would ya? I'ma need that.

First pays 37%, 2nd 27% and 3rd 18%. If you need $s my 5th grade math tells me you could just make this $37, $27, and $18 (or add as many zeroes to the end of those numbers as you like to make it feel more exciting.

[CrunchyNuts]

I'ma wear the crap out of my 0 key then yell at him for making a $1,000,000EV mistake. Muuhahaha!

thx~

[Chicago_Kid]

I'ma wear the crap out of my 0 key then yell at him for making a $1,000,000EV mistake. Muuhahaha!

thx~

Get off (or on) the drugs, son.

[CrunchyNuts]

Eh, went with no 0's. EV of this call, acct to my calculations (ICM, whee), ranges from -3.89 if you believe they'll both do this with any two to -5.88 if you think they'll only go with the top 10% of hands.

<insert standard ICM is just a model disclaimer here>

[allLiving]

I'm folding due to the chance of you probably being beat, and the fact that the original raiser is probably going AI vs. the RE-RAISER. Fold, hope bigger stack wins.