Massive MTTs - Worth it?

[bluedevil907]

I've been taking a slight departure from the standard 45 player MTTs and tried out the similar buy-in (though slightly less due to lack of rake) scheduled open MTTs.

My question is, is it more profitable to go for big wins in these tournaments, where luck can play a large role in the distance you'll advance, or to stay with the smaller, more predictable and controlled 45 games?

Granted, play is extremely strong in the later level of the large MTTs, so even making ITM doesn't guarantee much of a return more than 2-3 buy-ins without advancing into the peak positions. So far my best is only 140/2381. (Although I did make it to 23rd in a NL freeroll of ~4000, but there were a lot of times I was the lower pp and caught a set or doubled up from AIs when the blinds were overtaking me)

I guess it's more of a question of risk vs reward. There's astronomical profits to be made in the high levels of the MTT, but getting there takes a lot more than strong play. In the smaller MTTs, ITM is far easier to move into, and the pay-off is still decent, especially for a win, but nowhere near the amount for the huge MTTs.

So, where do you guys stand?

The 45s, the 1000+s, or a mix of both?

[Aquinas]

I love the big ones. 2/3 of my winnings come from winning those. After that I like the HU SNGs. But I've never played the really big ones (max was with 950 people). In the 3 that I've placed 1st in, I had 1 (600+ people), 2 (800+), and 4(800+) coinflips for my entire stack . In the coinflips I include multiways-- for example I hold AA and get called allin pf by QJs and 77 (yes that happened and we were all in top 10% size stacks...crazy fools). 'Course I had tons of flips for smaller bits of my stack. My point is that if you avoid getting involved in pots that will likely see a river card (without the nearnuts!), you can do well consistently. At least...I think so...I haven't played nearly enough to know if I'm just lucky...(I've played 100 big MTTs and hit final table 12 times). But to make good money you really have to hit top 5...so if you have an easier time with the 45 people games...stick with them...

[Staple Gun]

Ive only hit it big twice in MTT's, both 2nd's. But just with those it puts me well over what I have paid to play them. Yes, you do have to get lucky to win any particular event, but over time the better players will take advantage of there lucky runs, whereas the weaker players will get lucky then blow it.

Aquinas, I think I've seen you at UB. I believe you were at my table once when we were deeper into a tourney, my name on there is Toml_8.

[bluedevil907]

Yeah, I can see how hitting the final table alone is big money, easily covering a huge number of buy-ins. I think I'll stick with the smaller MTTs in the meantime though to analyze my game and hone different play styles. In the larger MTTs there's just too much variety and coinflips to really be able to focus your skills. Once I start hitting a decent amount of ITM on the 45s I'll probably start tinkering with the larger ones again.

[gabe]

i just play everything.

[ilikeaces86]

The big ones are so profitable because there is such a large amoun of essentially "dead money" players who have about a .0000000001% chance of winning that you are essentially freerolling with their chips.

[Chicago_Kid]

The big ones are so profitable because there is such a large amoun of essentially "dead money" players who have about a .0000000001% chance of winning that you are essentially freerolling with their chips.

Agreed...but you also have to get lucky in big ones while in smaller tourneys you can often play sharp not take too many chances and win. I feel much more in control in smaller tourneys while in MTT's there are always a couple coinflips you need to get the real cash.

My recommendation is to build BR with smaller tourneys and SNG's and invest sparingly in larger ones while you learn the ropes. Of course, do as I say, not as I do...

[bluedevil907]

Yeah, I played a MTT last night and took 5th (I was just behind the chip leader and we took our hands HU/AI for 30k chips with my AQ vs AJ, he caught a J on the river).

I noticed that my play in the smaller MTT was considerably better than in the larger ones, probably because I'm used to them and know what goals I'm heading for. In the bigger ones things are pretty wild and it's tough to ever really know where you stand until you hit ITM. It's also nice to have a smaller group of players to profile, your reads become that much more valuable and much easier to generate.

I think one thing that can really pay off for the smaller MTTs is the limited player pool. If there's 45 players, and there's 40 fish, the odds are heavily on your side to finish ITM if you play well. If you end up in a game with only 15 or so fish, you still have a decent chance, but However in the larger MTTs there will be a much larger % of good players, and once you're in the higher blind levels, playing for the real cash, that's who you're up against.

Anyone have a recommended BR vs Buy-In before you dabble in the larger MTTs? I'd assume it's much larger than for normal MTTs since you need to cushion a lot of possible suck-outs and coinflips.

[drmcboy]

When was the last time you won a SNG without a coin flip? Picking up AA 5 times in a hour is luck too.

To me it sounds like you're more comfortable in the 45 person MSNG that MTT, which is fine, play where you are happy. Also there are plenty of options out there between 45 and 1k! I guess depending on your stakes. Most UB tourneys, even the 10 and 20s, top out around 300, 500-800 maybe for the cheaper ones.

BR - I think 100 buy ins is suggested, which if you're playing exlusively MTTs is probably about right (it's not too little!) - if you're playing a lot of SNGs and just the occasional MTT (and playing well in the SNGs!) I think you can fudge that a bit.

[allLiving]

i just play everything.

ditto

[bluedevil907]

100 buy-ins! Wow, I am so under that number, lol. I think I'll stick with the SnGs I'm bankrolled for at the moment.

Speaking of 5 AA an hour, in that same tournament there was a guy catching JJ+ pocket pairs almost every other hand through around 4 levels. He got caught up in a big pot at the final table and busted out of the money. Crazy stuff.

Thanks for all the input again guys.

[drmcboy]

Again that's if you're ONLY playing MTTs, which early in your career doesn't really make much sense IMO - you need a lot of short handed experience to win a MTT, much easier to get that playing SNGs. And it's a high side number. On the other end, winning even a small MTT (200ish) you're hopefully getting 50x your buy in back.