Transparent steal?

[krimson]

The hand below occured in a freezeout tournament with 15 euro buy-in. At this point about 120 of 290 players remain and the blinds are 100/200. I have 4115 chips (about double the starting stack of 2000) while the villain is the big stack at the table with 8500.

Hero was dealt: J T

4 folds
Hero raises 400 to 600
1 fold
Villain calls 600
SB folds
BB folds

Flop: 4 3 6

Hero checks
Villain bets 450
Hero raises 3065 to 3515 and is all-in
Villain calls

For the past two orbits or so I've haven't played any hands. The table is pretty aggressive and I feel I need to push back a little unless I want to get run over.

So when I get JTs and it's folded to me in middle position I try to steal the blinds. The blinds duly fold, but the loose aggressive big stack on the button calls. Flop is rags with two to the flush and straight possibilities. I check the flop and button bets. I expected him to do so with any two cards, so I push (giving bad odds for flush or straight draws).

I basically have two questions:
1) I have 20xBB. Should I have folded this and camped for a better hand?
2) Does my push look convincing? I felt that a made hand that's worried about the drawing possibilities could have played it the same way.

[zenbitz]

The problem is, a gaMb00ler with a big stack is going to call your all in if he has a draw, or caught any part of that flop, or just thinks you are bluffing.

I think pre-flop it's a pretty good steal attempt. However, if Villain is going to call 3xBB with any two (as you say he will), then the raise is probably not big enough... still the hand has some value, so you don't care that much if you see a flop.

The check-raise all-in stone-cold bluff shows balls, to be sure. From here, out of context, it looks like a reasonable move, but obviously a high risk one. Not sure you need to risk it that bad with 20BB.

[TripsChaos]

1. You absolutely should camp and wait with a better hand. Think about what trashy hands a dumb player could have called you with and be beating and or dominating you: QJ, 1010, KJ.

2. If i were the other player, i would call you with any pair b/c i would know i was ahead. A move like that indicates a big draw at best, but in your situation it was very ballsy. Think abuot if you had only raised to say 1200, and he called (with the chance he may fold) and he checked the turn, and then you moved it...you have a much better chance of taking it down with nothing. A huge reraise on the flop like that usually means draw.

[gabe]

if the big stack is loose, this flop might have hit him perfectly...which is what makes him so hard to play against.

i only like this bluff if the flop had two spades, that way you still have some outs to win. otherwise, it just seems uneccesary.

as for your questions:
1. i dont see a problem with raising this preflop to get the blinds, but with 20bb and no antes in the pot yet, you arent desperate. you don't need the blinds.
2. frankly, no. what monster hand could you play this way? AA wouldn't do this because it risks giving a free card on a draw-heavy board. 66 might play this way, but would you raise 66 preflop here? this bluff doesn't accomplish anything, unless he is completely bluffing. in general, try not to bluff loose players.

[Xanadu]

A big problem with that all in bluff is that you are toast if he calls you. Even if he doesn't have a pair, he's gotta be the biggest fish in the sea to call you with a hand that isn't ahead of you right now. If he's gonna fold, he'll probably fold to a raise of 900-1000, so why risk your whole stack?

[drmcboy]

yeah I think you at least need outs to make this play, and you may not have any.

I say bet the flop and then you're done. In this case even if he moves over the top on a draw, he's probably still got you beat. If he raises you with a hand you somehow have beat, tip your hat and move on.

raising the JT is a better play on a tight table, against tight opps behind. It's a mistake to put too much stock in opps noticing that you are tight and making plays from there, especially in lower buy in tourneys.

[a500lbgorilla]

An excellent play on this hand would be to check raise that flop.

A horrible play would be to check raise AI.

-'rilla

[Xanadu]

'rilla,
I thought I said that already (guess I'm too wordy)

[gabe]

i think check raising is bad with only 20bb, bet it then let it go. or check fold since the flop sucks.

[a500lbgorilla]

'rilla,
I thought I said that already (guess I'm too wordy)

Sorry, I didn't read any responses. Just shot off what I thought.

Gabe, if you can expect a bet from op if you check, isnt a check raise awesome?

-'rilla

[gabe]

i don't like trying to bluff that type of player. for all we know he has the nuts. villian is probably going to bet at first sign of weakness, so the only way you can win is if by showing down the best hand or getting him to fold. i don't want to try to bluff him because he good be holding lots and lots of hands that beat me.

[krimson]

Thanks for the comments.

Here are the results of the hand:

Turn 4 3 6 K
River 4 3 6 K 2

Hero shows: J T (high card king)
Villain shows: 3 5 (a straight, six high)

Villain wins: 8 530 (with a straight, six high)

Villain flopped a pair + an open-ended straight flush draw, so my attempts at bluffing him off the pot were pretty much doomed. Since his hand was so strong it didn't really help me decide how effective my move was likely to be on average. The consensus among the replies seems to be that it's not worth the risk, and after thinking it through I'm inclined to agree.

Some responses to some of the comments:

However, if Villain is going to call 3xBB with any two (as you say he will), then the raise is probably not big enough...

Ah, no, what I meant was that I thought he'd make the flop bet when checked to with any two. I felt that the preflop cold-call made the most trashy hands unlikely.

If i were the other player, i would call you with any pair b/c i would know i was ahead.

I didn't really expect to be able to bluff him off a made hand, but I felt that the probability that he had made a pair or better was sufficiently low that this was not a big problem. My concern was if I could push him off something like AJ or a straight draw.

If he's gonna fold, he'll probably fold to a raise of 900-1000, so why risk your whole stack?

One of the reasons I pushed was that I wanted to make sure that he wouldn't have correct odds to draw. I think this was the biggest flaw in my reasoning: he would be likely to call with any draw anyway (and then
find out that he was actually ahead of me).

My other reasons for pushing rather than making a smaller raise were
1) That I wanted to make sure that a losing call would really hurt his stack
2) That he had position on me. I was concerned that if I raised smaller he'd stay around with a trash hand (which could still be ahead of mine) to see what I'd do on the turn.

In conclusion I think that my move would be likely to make him fold a lot of hands he could have that are ahead of me (Axs without the flush draw, KJo or whatever), but that the probability that he does have a piece of the flop is too high to warrant risking my whole stack

[a500lbgorilla]

Krimson, one day you'll learn that you could EASILY split the above post into 3 or maybe even 4 posts.

Post whore fo' life.

-'rilla

[Staple Gun]

Krimson, one day you'll learn that you could EASILY split the above post into 3 or maybe even 4 posts.

Post whore fo' life.

-'rilla

I h8 post whores

[A'aag]

He's obviously a WPP whore.

He's obviously a WPP whore. :roll:

471 WPP IS WTF