Push or fold?

[bigg_nate]

About 50 players left in a MTT, 40 make the money. Full table, blinds 200/400. Fairly tight big stack in MP raises to 1000, his standard raise. CO comes over the top AI for 1300 total. I'm on the button with 3500 chips and pick up JJ. What's my move?

- Nate

[PokerPatNEU]

This sounds like a job for someone who knows some serious ICM! Post the buy in, number of players who registered, and how many are left. I think thats all you need to figure this out using ICM right? I'm a noob at it.


Conventionally...I think CO's push range is really big if he's at 1300 and blinds are 200/400. Your JJ has him beat the majority of the time.

The deciding factor is MP. Does he have you covered? Was he on a blind steal? Ie: If you push will he fold? If so then i think push and face CO heads up. If you think he'll call pushing is probably a worse idea because JJ doesn't hold up often against two opps willing to push and call all ins pre flop.

[bigg_nate]

This sounds like a job for someone who knows some serious ICM! Post the buy in, number of players who registered, and how many are left. I think thats all you need to figure this out using ICM right? I'm a noob at it.

I don't think so -- I think you need every single player's stack size and the payout of every single position.

Conventionally...I think CO's push range is really big if he's at 1300 and blinds are 200/400. Your JJ has him beat the majority of the time.

Note that he's basically calling rather than pushing. Also we're close to the bubble, and he's a long way from the blinds. All of that narrows his range substantially.

The deciding factor is MP. Does he have you covered? Was he on a blind steal? Ie: If you push will he fold? If so then i think push and face CO heads up. If you think he'll call pushing is probably a worse idea because JJ doesn't hold up often against two opps willing to push and call all ins pre flop.

Well, he's the big stack and easily has me covered (maybe 10k chips). He's a solid player preflop and made his standard raise ... that's pretty much all I got.

- Nate

[zenbitz]

CO is totally irrelvent to calculations. You would certainly go all-in with him alone. The question is - do you want to play coin flip with the rest of your chips?

You say MP is tight, so unlikely he's stealing. Even if he is, he is still getting 2:1

If he's holding over cards 1/2 the time and a pair the other 1/2. 3 pairs better than you, getting 3:1, 9 pairs worse than you giving 3:1.

I think you beat MP2 roughly 25% + 25% (you dominate, but could get sucked out) + 4% (you are dominated and suckout).

Pretty close to a flip either way + bonus equity if you beat MP and CO.

Throw in the chance he's stealing with junk, and will lay down, I think this is a reasonable push, since you need the cheeeps.

You could also call and push a flop without an ace or KQX. Probably should push KXX or QXX. Plus, big stack might check it down with short stack all in.

[vqc]

I push this.

The big stack is probably stealing, and if you can get him to fold the majority of the time, you have enough dead money against the AI player that this should be a good EV play.

Furthermore, you are getting shortstacked on the bubble. Making the money does not guarantee you a big return, espeically if you enter with a short stack. Maybe you will profit 10% on 3 hours of work if you limp into the money.

However, this is a chance for you to risk a portion of your stack, that if gone, still grants your remaining stack some semblance of FE, but if you manage to take all of these chips, gives you some breathing room (and potentially alot more than 10% return). Essentially this is a, shoot for the big money or go bust idea.

The shorties range ISNT that tight, and I would guess that more often than not, Hero is dominating or flipping (which I think is fine considering short stackness). Shorty could see the big stack raising again, and push with AT. Is a range of 88+, AT+ too tight to make this a +EV play?

ICM would not work in this situation.

[bigg_nate]

Results:
I folded and kicked myself when MP turned over 99 and CO turned over KTo (!). Did make the money for the first time in my (short) MTT career though .

How about this similar situation:
Blinds 150-300, a good ways from the money, I've got about 2500 chips. MP, who has me covered, limps. Button goes AI for 700. I have 55 in the small blind. Would you push this as well?

- Nate

[baudib]

I would definitely have pushed JJ there. Good chance you don't get a hand this good, with these odds, for the rest of the tourney.

[TanO]

Push, (almost) every time