Bad bluff?

[bdawg56kg]

I had been playing at this table for about an hour, and my read on çNosferatuç was that he was TAGG. He only showed down good hands, never one bluff. Here's the first big pot I got involved with him in. I was 100% sure I was beat so I layed it down.

PokerStars Game #2580319612: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2005/09/15 - 07:15:59 (ET)
Table 'Lupus V' Seat #4 is the button
Seat 1: splaffs ($20.70 in chips)
Seat 2: chrberl ($21.10 in chips)
Seat 3: bdawg56kg ($55.45 in chips)
Seat 4: çNosferatuç ($73.80 in chips)
Seat 5: KultKing ($45.10 in chips)
Seat 6: Salcin ($48.40 in chips)
KultKing: posts small blind $0.25
Salcin: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bdawg56kg [Ah Ac]
splaffs: folds
chrberl: folds
bdawg56kg: raises $1.50 to $2
çNosferatuç: calls $2
KultKing: folds
Salcin: folds
*** FLOP *** [Kd 7s Tc]
bdawg56kg: checks
çNosferatuç: bets $1
bdawg56kg: raises $3 to $4
çNosferatuç: calls $3
*** TURN *** [Kd 7s Tc] [9c]
bdawg56kg: bets $6.50
çNosferatuç: raises $13.50 to $20
bdawg56kg said, "QJ?"
çNosferatuç said, "no"
bdawg56kg said, "lol nh"
bdawg56kg: folds
çNosferatuç collected $24.50 from pot
çNosferatuç: shows [Th Ts] (three of a kind, Tens)
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $25.75 | Rake $1.25
Board [Kd 7s Tc 9c]
Seat 1: splaffs folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: chrberl folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 3: bdawg56kg folded on the Turn
Seat 4: çNosferatuç (button) collected ($24.50)
Seat 5: KultKing (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 6: Salcin (big blind) folded before Flop


And then this hand comes up. I know a lot of people would just call here w/AK, but I figured I could make a move on this guy since he's tight. Even if I missed the flop, I could still easily rep and overpair. I was almost positive that this guy had TT-QQ, and thought for sure he would lay it down if the flop came rags. Thoughts?

PokerStars Game #2580343304: Hold'em No Limit ($0.25/$0.50) - 2005/09/15 - 07:31:16 (ET)
Table 'Lupus V' Seat #1 is the button
Seat 1: boquita-2005 ($21.45 in chips)
Seat 2: clark46 ($11.30 in chips)
Seat 3: bdawg56kg ($42.30 in chips)
Seat 4: çNosferatuç ($80.85 in chips)
Seat 5: KultKing ($53.25 in chips)
Seat 6: Salcin ($58.20 in chips)
clark46: posts small blind $0.25
bdawg56kg: posts big blind $0.50
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to bdawg56kg [Ac Kh]
çNosferatuç: raises $1 to $1.50
KultKing: folds
Salcin: folds
boquita-2005: folds
clark46: folds
bdawg56kg: raises $3.50 to $5
çNosferatuç: calls $3.50
*** FLOP *** [6d 9s 7c]
bdawg56kg: bets $6.50
çNosferatuç: calls $6.50
*** TURN *** [6d 9s 7c] [5d]
bdawg56kg: bets $12
çNosferatuç: calls $12
*** RIVER *** [6d 9s 7c 5d] [3c]
bdawg56kg: bets $18.80 and is all-in
çNosferatuç: calls $18.80
*** SHOW DOWN ***
bdawg56kg: shows [Ac Kh] (high card Ace)
çNosferatuç: shows [Th Td] (a pair of Tens)
çNosferatuç collected $81.85 from pot
*** SUMMARY ***
Total pot $84.85 | Rake $3
Board [6d 9s 7c 5d 3c]
Seat 1: boquita-2005 (button) folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 2: clark46 (small blind) folded before Flop
Seat 3: bdawg56kg (big blind) showed [Ac Kh] and lost with high card Ace
Seat 4: çNosferatuç showed [Th Td] and won ($81.85) with a pair of Tens
Seat 5: KultKing folded before Flop (didn't bet)
Seat 6: Salcin folded before Flop (didn't bet)

[biondino]

So you made a 1/3-pot-sized bet on the river and expected someone who was smooth calling you with an overpair on a raggy board to fold?

"I was almost positive that this guy had TT-QQ, and thought for sure he would lay it down if the flop came rags."

I am obviously a bad player because I can't fathom either of these concepts.

[Pingviini]

He could've folded on turn but on river you had to know he was going to call you. You should have saved your money. In general, I dont think I have really seen anybody folding their overpair against nothing but obvious straights and flushes at nl100 and below.

About the first hand, I would've made a bet on turn instead of CR'ing him after his weak bet. I dont like CR'ing on the flop in deep stack poker when I have an overpair. More likely only better hands will call/raise and weaker ones fold..

[bdawg56kg]

So you made a 1/3-pot-sized bet on the river and expected someone who was smooth calling you with an overpair on a raggy board to fold?

"I was almost positive that this guy had TT-QQ, and thought for sure he would lay it down if the flop came rags."

I am obviously a bad player because I can't fathom either of these concepts.

Yeah I realize that the river bet was horrible, and I should have checked, but I guess when I say bluff, I'm referring to all streets before the river.

As far as putting the guy on TT-QQ, maybe it was a little results oriented, but I definitely had a strong read that he didn't have AA or KK. I guess I figured this guy to have a brain and laydown a weak overpair on a raggy flop with my aggression. Well, lesson learned.

He could've folded on turn but on river you had to know he was going to call you. You should have saved your money. In general, I dont think I have really seen anybody folding their overpair against nothing but obvious straights and flushes at nl100 and below.

About the first hand, I would've made a bet on turn instead of CR'ing him after his weak bet. I dont like CR'ing on the flop in deep stack poker when I have an overpair. More likely only better hands will call/raise and weaker ones fold..

For the first hand, Pingviini, I think you were referring to the flop CR raither than the turn. Anyway, I did that to mix up my betting, instead of continuation betting everytime I missed or hit. Sometimes I contuation bet with nothing, sometimes I CR with nothing, and of course other times I do these same things with the goods. I guess I just wanted to mix things up to avoid becoming predictable.

Anyway, this is a question for all you higher stakes 6-max players (higher than 50NL anyway). How often do you make moves on people given their table image like I tried to do here? I'm beginning to lose a lot of faith in bluffing, simply because I always seem to get called! lol