Time to fold my set?

[Sykedupp]

PokerStars Game #2574313035: Tournament #12555579, Hold'em No Limit - Level I (10/20) - 2005/09/14 - 15:13:37 (ET)
Table '12555579 1' Seat #8 is the button
Seat 1: Sykedupp (1480 in chips)
Seat 3: hpc3000 (1790 in chips)
Seat 4: johnnyv5000 (1350 in chips)
Seat 5: dabergy (2630 in chips)
Seat 6: neverheard (1470 in chips)
Seat 7: Calli (1490 in chips)
Seat 8: kajelir (2070 in chips)
Seat 9: lucsiatkarz (1220 in chips)
lucsiatkarz: posts small blind 10
Sykedupp: posts big blind 20
*** HOLE CARDS ***
Dealt to Sykedupp [4h 4c]
hpc3000: folds
johnnyv5000: folds
dabergy: calls 20
neverheard: folds
Calli: folds
kajelir: calls 20
lucsiatkarz: calls 10
Sykedupp: checks
*** FLOP *** [Kd Td 4d]
lucsiatkarz: checks
Sykedupp: bets 80
dabergy: calls 80
kajelir: raises 340 to 420
lucsiatkarz: folds
Sykedupp: ????

[Squeak2k2]

I would probably push myself.


The ideal situation here I think is if everyone folds.

IF you get called by a made flush, you are drawing to 7 outs on the turn, and 10 outs on the river to make a full house or better.

IF you get called by something like A10 with the Ace being a diamond, then you are still ahead.

IF you get called by some idiot that didn't want to drop his top pair or 2 pair, then rake in the chips.

[Swanny]

i would probably push, but i never like to give up a set. If he had a made flush that raise seems rather large unless it was a low flush.

[PokerPatNEU]

Villain is protecting against someone drawing to a big flush. Two pair, TPTK, or a small flush. I didn't include a set because you hold 44, and KK would have probably raised pre flop. TT is possible but not as likely as the other things protecting.

Assuming each of these 3 hands is equally likely, you are ahead of two out of the three, and have outs to beat the 3rd. 7 outs on the flop (3 K's, 3 T's, 1 4). Then 10 outs on the turn if you don't improve to a boat there (Same outs from the flop + 3 more outs from whatever card comes on the turn).

Push.

[STIdrivr]

I would maybe put him on the A high flush draw or maybe a small flush, he could have a higher set and make the same play. Less likely he has the set though. If he has the flush than you are still about 30% to win by the river so i dunno it is a matter of if you feel like gambling, At least you know you have outs, If he has a set though you are drawing to 1 out. I would probably end up pushing.

So what happend?????

[Fnord]

Fold, Set and Flop are 3 words that just don't go well together. Throw in the word Sit'n'Go and I gamble here every time.

[dalecooper]

Yeah, just push with it. You may be surprised to find out you're ahead; there's a slim chance a weak flush will fold anyway; and if all else fails you have a strong draw against whatever is out there, except a higher set, which is really unlikely.

[nickthefool]

I think i would be pushing this every time.

[taipan168]

I agree, I'm pushing here every time. The probability of flopping a flush is less than 1% so I'm willing to take the chance here with a set. Plus even if he does have a flush, as others have pointed out, you still have outs.

I would think that KK, TT and AK would have raised, particularly since kajelir is on the button. I think the most likely possibilities are KT or K4 trying to protect their hand, maybe also KQ, KJ or Ad-x trying to take the pot now. Guess QJ is also possible but I'm not sure that I would have reraised that much with that board.

[Fnord]

The probability of flopping a flush is less than 1% so I'm willing to take the chance here with a set.

Not when the board is mono-tone and given the action. The chance someone has a flush is much higher than 1%.

[taipan168]

The probability of flopping a flush is less than 1% so I'm willing to take the chance here with a set.

Not when the board is mono-tone and given the action. The chance someone has a flush is much higher than 1%.

I agree, good point. I still think I'm willing to gambool with the set though.

[Muxy]

Push, you have the re-draw to a boat and probably a immortal hand.

Muxy:

[Sykedupp]

I pushed, 2nd guy who just called my 80 raise surprisingly instacalled, so did the guy who raised big. The guy who raised big had Q high flush, the instacaller had the Ad...

Turn was a d...

River was a 10 :P
Ty for the help guys


-Chris

[STIdrivr]

Good hand

[nickthefool]

Would anyone here fold a set on ANY flop in a SnG???

Only possible way i think i would fold a set would be if it was bottom set, and there were about 4 players all in, with a possible straight of flush on the board, and i felt i could come back from folding, or there was a good chance folding would put me in the money. Even then, i'm probably calling to be honest.

[a500lbgorilla]

Would anyone here fold a set on ANY flop in a SnG???

Only possible way i think i would fold a set would be if it was bottom set, and there were about 4 players all in, with a possible straight of flush on the board, and i felt i could come back from folding, or there was a good chance folding would put me in the money. Even then, i'm probably calling to be honest.

Yes, if you're much better than the field with non 800 chip starting stacks and you make a set on the first hand vrs a 3 straight flush board and too much action from multiple opponents, I can fold.

-'rilla

[Staple Gun]

If I had bottom set on a suited OR connected flop, and someone pushed and got a call imediately, I would at least consider folding. I think it would depend on whether the guy was a fish or not.

[JeffreyGB]

With a strong enough read, it can be correct to fold almost anything, especially if you don't need the chips.

[nickthefool]

Would anyone here fold a set on ANY flop in a SnG???

Only possible way i think i would fold a set would be if it was bottom set, and there were about 4 players all in, with a possible straight of flush on the board, and i felt i could come back from folding, or there was a good chance folding would put me in the money. Even then, i'm probably calling to be honest.

Yes, if you're much better than the field with non 800 chip starting stacks and you make a set on the first hand vrs a 3 straight flush board and too much action from multiple opponents, I can fold.

-'rilla

So you mean, if there is a possible straight or flush on the board, and you feel you can come back from folding ?

[a500lbgorilla]

Would anyone here fold a set on ANY flop in a SnG???

Only possible way i think i would fold a set would be if it was bottom set, and there were about 4 players all in, with a possible straight of flush on the board, and i felt i could come back from folding, or there was a good chance folding would put me in the money. Even then, i'm probably calling to be honest.

Yes, if you're much better than the field with non 800 chip starting stacks and you make a set on the first hand vrs a 3 straight flush board and too much action from multiple opponents, I can fold.

-'rilla

So you mean, if there is a possible straight or flush on the board, and you feel you can come back from folding ?

If you see me muck a set, report me to support becuase someone else hacked my account and is rampaging around the 22s throwing my money into the muck with those pair of 3s. Then report yourself for using one of those "see everyone's cards" programs. Cheater...

-'rilla