FTR vs FTR - your play?

[Sykedupp]

I was in a $30 2-table SnG with Mrs Spook when this hand came up.

I was on the BB with QcKc... there were about 7 limpers in to the SB (which was Mrs_Spook) who raised it 3x (unusually small for the amount of limpers) I decide to call, so does EVERYONE else.

Flop comes 6d Tc Jc giving me a OESFD... Stacks are roughly even.

Mrs_Spook who is 1st to act bets the pot (half her stack).

Whats your play here?


-Chris

[gabe]

what are the blinds? stacks are even, but what are they? is she any good?

[Squeak2k2]

What did everyone else in the hand do?

There would have to be some massive action to pursuade me to do anything but PUSH.

Without knowledge of other hands, you can assume any club, 9, ace, and possibly Q and K will help you here.

That's 21 cards that could give you a winning hand.

[bigg_nate]

The only reasonable move is all in. Though I would have folded preflop.

- Nate

[STIdrivr]

Yea if you do have all live cards including the K and Q then you are about a 65% favorite on the flop and its about 50/50 on the turn.

[zenbitz]

I doubt you have 21 outs here, with 8 people seeing the flop. Someone has 66 or two pair.... and will probably call your push. Someone else could have AXc and call to nullify your flush draw. At least you are drawing to the nut straight...

Betting 1/2 your stack into 7 callers from someone who probably has a clue (???) is a pretty strong bet with indication they will call the push. It's actually SO strong, it might be AA with Ace of clubs or JJ/TT. But it's only that strong from someone whom you know would be pushing the flop with AJ or QQ.

I can't decide without at least knowing your stack size and whom you cover. I hate to give up on OESFDs, though.

I think it's unlikely that a push takes it down here. Plus you are not likely to win at showdown unimproved (with K high). I can see calling this bet, and any subsequent push just to maximize your winnings if you do catch.

This has some variance if you catch a K/Q and someone else (who would have folded 2 your push) catches 2 pair or a straight (6-T)

So to summarize, defintily push, call, or fold.

[Fnord]

Type "SHIP IT RED HOT MAMMA!" and push.

You just can't fold here and have way too many outs. Mrs Spook is capable of laying something down (maybe 5-10%) The turn is probably going to suck. You might have clean K or Q outs if you isolate. If you get an over-call it's probably ok. Finally, I like to trade off survial for chips sometimes. Lots of little reasons that add up...

[bigg_nate]

Fold is completely out of the question. Yes, SB has a good hand -- I'm guessing a poorly played overpair -- but even against AA you're 48% to win. Clearly you have odds.

Now that I think about it though, I think calling might be a reasonable. If you just call, you encourage some of the limpers to call, which is probably good -- if your draw comes, it'll be the near nuts. On the other hand, if you just call, you give people a chance to get away if your draw comes on the turn. Plus, there's the off chance SB will fold to a reraise (though I think it's unlikely). Personally I push, but I think a case can be made for calling.

- Nate

[STIdrivr]

wat did you end up doing?

[DavSimon]

what are the blinds? stacks are even, but what are they? is she any good?

I would like to know the blinds and stack sizes too....and Yes, Mrs. Spook is a very goot player.

Anyway you have very little folding equity against her since she actually has more than 1/2 her stack invested....that said I put her on a big pair...A-A or K-K, although the pot sized bet would give me a little uneasiness....its almost like she is leaving you room to come over the top of her...she may have had tens and flopped a set on you. Oh well I would sigh heavily and move in....hoping to hit....and if she does have a set hope that she does not re-draw to the boat.

[Muxy]

Who cares if it is FTR vs FTR, play it the same as you would any other random player. You seem to be stressing to much on the fact that they are a "FTR Bred Player" Never give to much respect it can backfire.

[Sykedupp]

Was fairly early in the tourney, 25/50 blinds with like 1400 chips a piece... I pushed, Mrs Spook called with 66 and somebody else called with Acxc leaving only my straight outs good. Naturally i got my ass kicked when Mrs Spook hit a boat on the turn. NH


-Chris

[zenbitz]

I wonder what the numbers are here...

It should be possible to approximate your true outs, given some assumptions like:

-anyone with set or two pair will call
-anyone with AXc will call
-everyone could be limping with any two (including T6o).

You probably have to make a specific assumption about Mrs Spook's hand, since she bet 1/2 her stack.

Would be cool to know:
Chance of 21 outs:
Chance of 15 outs:
Chance of 7 outs (straight draw can't count Ac, since someone has to have it to make your flush 2nd nuts.
Chance of 1 out (9 of clubs!)

[Fnord]

You probably have to make a specific assumption about Mrs Spook's hand, since she bet 1/2 her stack.

Even good but straightforward players play strange hands in strange ways sometimes. Even make terrible laydowns. Which is why I think she folds at least ~5% of the time here.

[bigg_nate]

MrsSpook's preflop raise makes absolutely no sense to me. It seems very unlikely that betting 1/4 of the pot is going to chase anyone out. Seems like in the best case it'll reduce her (his?) implied odds -- in the worst case it'll induce a reraise, to which she'll have to fold. Does anyone else understand it?

- Nate

[STIdrivr]

I was going to say the same, i was puzzled by the 3x BB raise with wired 6's in the SB with multiple limpers...

You would think she would be happy to see a flop and try to hit a set, It is pretty much a waste of a few BB's if you dont hit a set(wich is most likely) because someone else is pretty much for sure going to hit the flop.

What most people would do im sure is just call the small blind then check -raise if a 6 comes and fold if it doesnt. No reason to make a raise that will get callers when you are going to be first to act after the flop!??