Does any1 play Party Poker SnGs profitably?

[alreet]

Need a BR of about 40Buyins for these things, its just bad beat after bad beat.

How do u make money against these monkies?

[a500lbgorilla]

Need a BR of about 40Buyins for these things, its just bad beat after bad beat.

How do u make money against these monkies?

Play better than them.

-'rilla

[alreet]

So start folding AQ against A5 then.

[Fnord]

So start folding AQ against A5 then.

Move to lower stakes until you understand poker. You're falling into too many traps that will doom you to failure via steady leakage until variance finishes you off.

[PokerPatNEU]

You're right. At party poker, A5 beats AQ more than it loses...

[Fnord]

You're right. At party poker, A5 beats AQ more than it loses...

B&M is worse. 6 max LHE and HU LHE has it's own special kind of bad beat it produces on a regular basis. It takes a miracle series of hands to make me say "f'n A man." Routine bad beats are down to a sigh, grin or chuckle.

[alreet]

Played 5 SnGs 2night $5+1
Lost preflop with AQ against A5
10s against 4s
AJ against KT
AK against A8
and AK against AA wen low stacked

I thought it was about putting your money in when you're favourite.

[a500lbgorilla]

If you don't honestly see how people can beat the party sngs, you dont understand where your money comes from when you play sngs (profitably).

And I really don't think you understand where your money comes from when you play any form of poker.

Of course, once you go on a week heater and forget all about the big bad fishy suckouts, you'll blow off this advice becuase you are the poker God.

-'rilla

[a500lbgorilla]

Played 5 SnGs 2night $5+1
Lost preflop with AQ against A5
10s against 4s
AJ against KT
AK against A8
and AK against AA wen low stacked

I thought it was about putting your money in when you're favourite.

SnGs are swingy. A winning player can easily lose over 100 sngs. 5 is a fart in the wind compared to the sample size you really need to appropriately define the strench of losing play.

-'rilla

[alreet]

So i have to fold those hands to be profitable. ok ill try that

[PokerPatNEU]

100 in a row Rilla? My worst is 9. I have about 150 recorded (didn't start keeping track until recently, i probably have a worse streak back there somewhere before i started counting) and i'm ready for big swings, my BR is stable...but 100? Geez

[Fnord]

IT happens

http://archiveserver.twoplustwo.com/...&view=&sb=5&o=

Quit if you're tilting. Finding a stripper isn't a bad idea. Then look back at those games and take responsibility for the mistakes you made. Missed bets/steals, bad calls, etc.

Losing players blame the cards and look no further.

[Fnord]

Of course, once you go on a week heater and forget all about the big bad fishy suckouts, you'll blow off this advice becuase you are the poker God.

Quoted for truth.

So i have to fold those hands to be profitable. ok ill try that

Go find a stripper, come back tomorrow and post some hands.

The wonderful thing about poker is that best hand often loses. Read that statment 10x. Don't play bigger than 5+1 until you truely understand what it means.

[PokerPatNEU]

So i have to fold those hands to be profitable. ok ill try that

I can't tell if you're trying to be sarcastic here or serious. That is definitely not what he is saying. He's saying that suckouts happen. If you're an 80% favorite to win a hand, you still lose it 20% of the time. If you didn't, online poker would be rigged.

Lets look at the math behind this concept. Lets say you get your money in as a 3:1 favorite five times, and lose all five times in a row. This seems impossible, or some spectacular statistical anomoly, but it's not as uncommon as you might think. In order for this to happen, the 3:1 underdog has to win once, then again, then again, etc until he's done it 5 times in a row. The odds of that happening are 25%^5th power. This is about 1 in 1000 times. How many hands in a given week do you see your cards go in as a 3:1 favorite? Some people play 10,000+ hands a week. Taking 5 bad beats in a row like this is commonplace to them.

Some things to consider: In order for this to happen 5 times out of 6, the odds are significantly higher. And if it happend to you 5 times out of 6, it probably would seem like 5 in a row.


The moral: Keep getting your money in as a favorite and you will win. That answers your question in the topic of this thread "How do you win Party Poker SnGs?" Just keep getting your money in with the best hands. If you're already doing that, you are already "winning" in the long term. You just haven't seen the profits yet.

[Fnord]

This isn't about math. This is about our results-oriented instincts fucking with us.

[PokerPatNEU]

Whenever bad beats happen to me and i feel like i may tilt, it helps me to think about the math (based on the results :P). "Oh so that happens one in eight times? I shouldn't go crazy about this after all..." When i go all in on the flop with someone drawing to 2 outs and they catch it. It's this line of thinking that has probably kept me from quitting at one point or another.

[Trikflow77]

on a 30 buy in down swing............you cant afford...........j/k

[lovemachine]

i've played probably close to 1000 sngs on party, mainly at the $50 buy-in level although some 20s, 30s, and recently i've been playing the 100s. you just have to be persistant. bad runs happen occasionally. the other day i went 10 sngs in a row without cashing, which isn't extremely uncommon. i've also had downswings of 35-40 buy-ins and a run of 200+ sngs when i only broke even. as long as you consistantly get your money in with the best hand and prevent yourself from tilting when running bad you will make money in the long run.

Steps to be a good poker player:

1. Build a huge sample size.
2. While doing this, have AQ vs A5 in a big pot many, many times.

[gabe]

Routine bad beats are down to a sigh, grin or chuckle.

i love being able to laugh at them when they use to devastate me so much. its like i've reached nirvana.

[Staple Gun]

I agree gabe, unless its some spectacular bad beat that lost me the final table or something, I really dont care. If I go a whole night without having the worst hand at any of my all-ins, its a good night regardless of how many hold up.

[a500lbgorilla]

100 in a row Rilla? My worst is 9. I have about 150 recorded (didn't start keeping track until recently, i probably have a worse streak back there somewhere before i started counting) and i'm ready for big swings, my BR is stable...but 100? Geez

A loser OVER 100 sngs. Not 100 in a row. But have a -ROI after 100 sngs played.

-'rilla

[a500lbgorilla]

So i have to fold those hands to be profitable. ok ill try that

Poker is one of the few things in life where you rewarded for a mistake and punished for the right move.

You have to learn to seperate the results from the process.

The process you did good. If you continue to be better than everyone else in the process of playing, the results will reflect that over time.

You need to understand that poker is not a game of one hand. It's a game of 100,000 hands. I can lose over one hand but still be a winning player. I can lose over 10 hands, 100 hands, 1000 hands but over 100,000 I should start to worry.

You need to understand that your sample size is way too small and that all you can ask for in poker is to get all the money in with the best hand.

-'rilla

[konahead]

I've found that very conservative play until it gets down to 4-5 players works best at pp. You only need to double up once to get in the money and then you can play the player... Patience is a necessity in an sng.

[drmcboy]

I agree with everything you said, rilla, except:

Poker is one of the few things in life where you rewarded for a mistake and punished for the right move.

This sounds nice, but life is in fact way not fair.

I've been sitting here busting my a$$ for the same weak sauce promotion for 2 years, my bosses are begging for it, but every 3 months or so two people how don't know me or my co workers from Adam decide who wins and who loses, based on formulas that have nothing to do with me.

Sometimes you jump out of a plane and bust the fuck out of yourself. LiveBoon!

That new sports bar you open next to the stadium may close down because the team moves to Indianapolis in the middle of the night.

You can quit smoking today and die in a car crash on the way to work tomorrow.

You can find out your best friend's wife is cheating on him, tell him, and have him hate you for it. (Note - this IS fair if she's sleeping with you)

You can run for a zillion yards in college, get drafted #1 overall, and then never be able to stay healthy through more than 2 regular season games.

That girl who should have been your wife may sit two seats too far away on the bus to overhear that funny remark that leads you down the path of marital bliss.

That's what is great about poker. You are responsible for your own success and your own failure. The luck is there, sure, but it's measurable, quantifiable, and best of all it's THE SAME FOR EVERYONE. It's you vs. them, and in the long run (but, I think we all agree, not so long that we can't get there) if you beat them, you will succeed. It's very rare to find a better deal than that.

[a500lbgorilla]

I agree with everything you said, rilla, except:

And this post had such potential :P

-'rilla