AQ Late Against Good Action

[rubixstreub]

Seat 1: streubie [AH,QS] ($1,465 in chips)
Seat 4: rprice2832 ($1,888 in chips)
Seat 6: Spiderman919 ($5,200 in chips)
Seat 7: buck choy ($4,242 in chips)
Seat 8: gunners 13 ($795 in chips)
Seat 10: tjsmooth ($1,410 in chips)


ANTES/BLINDS
rprice2832 posts blind ($150),
Spiderman919 posts blind ($300).

PRE-FLOP
buck choy calls $300,
gunners 13 bets $795 and is all-in,
tjsmooth calls $795,
streubie ????

[Andy Holt]

Since there are so many players left with blinds this big, I'm assuming you're playing with some tight/solid players who value their chips...

Fold. Chances are you're a big dog here, pick a better spot with live cards.

[daluchy]

You have an M of 3. Those guys are as desperate as you are to get some chips. I'd raise AI to make the big stack caller fold and take this as a way to triple up, break even, or bust out. Even if you are dominated by gunners you got a chance to win the side pot w/tjsmooth to break about even.

[rubixstreub]

Even if you are dominated by gunners you got a chance to win the side pot w/tjsmooth to break about even.

Great point, didn't consider.. honestly I was most worried about the big stack coming along even if I pushed based on odds with chips he could afford to lose.

I put one of them on a low PP and the other stealing one of my ace outs and didn't want to be in a flip with the wrong one.

[WildBobAA]

You almost certainly have the shortstack beat as he could be pushing with almost any 2 cards. The caller though hmm. There's a small chance he could be baiting with AA or KK hoping for callers behind him. If he has a hand weaker than that, then he's pretty stupid to not push in trying to force everyone else out. But a flat call by him makes me think he is weak. I'd put him on a mid pair. He's probably hoping the limper will just call and then can check it down. Now a limp by one of the big stacks really worries me. This late in the tournament, he knows the shortstacks are desperate and at least one of them will probably push and he can bust them with his high pair. Has the limper accumualted his chips showing down solid hands or has he gotten lucky? If he's solid I think a fold is probably correct in this situation but if he's loose then I'd push. On a side not, if he had not limped at all, I would say this was an easy push.

I think it all depends on your read on the big stack.

[kingnat]

I think it would depend on your read of the two big stacks.. what's the chance of Spiderman or buck choy calling your AI? I'm guessing TJ is pot committed, so I would think if there is better than a 50% that one of the big boys would call I'd fold. I don't have a fantastic numerical backing for this.. but it seems right to me. Have they been playing sheriff or picking their spots?

Interesting stuff though

[drmcboy]

I'd fold. One of three must have a PP, and others must be holding some outs... also I don't think buck choy limps here unless he has a hand to call the SS AI with. Throw in the chance that AK is in the mix...

[biondino]

On the other hand, you're almost out, you're desperate, and while you'll probably lose this, you might triple up and then it's game very much on. You don't have many hands on which you might get better cards before you blind out. I'd say "ah, fuck it" and push.

[ilikeaces86]

Push but its kind of close.

[Khabbi]

I'm pushing in this situation. The caller is also pretty short-stacked and just called off just over half of his chips. Make him make a decision for the rest of them.

I can see him making this call with any Ace as the short stack is probably playing anything better than J9. You guys are all in about the same boat, and AQo is a pretty strong hand. Even against a lower pocket pair, it's a race.

Chances are you need to win a race at some point, at this point you can win a substantial amount of chips, so race on. Otherwise you are going to be way behind and fighting to catch up just hoping to make it to the bubble. You have a great opportunity to put yourself in a position here to win.

[Fortune 500]

I'm folding. I know it's uber tight, but it looks to me that you're beat. You're either a little ahead or way behind. I maybe look for a better spot.

[STIdrivr]

This is a hard one. I guess i could only make the decision if i was there playing and depending on how i felt.

[Staple Gun]

I'd push easy. You have 5x BB and you will need to make a move soon. You aren't gonna get any better chances.

[drmcboy]

No better chance than to run AQ three way, maybe even 4 way? meh. I'd really rather push sometime this orbit with anything.

[Staple Gun]

No better chance than to run AQ three way, maybe even 4 way? meh. I'd really rather push sometime this orbit with anything.

You are likely about 50% favorite to win the hand if only 3 play, and when you do win you are ITM easy with a chance to win. Plus you got a sidepot that you only gotta beat one guy to win, and you are almost definetly a favorite. Therefore you are getting a good shot at tripling up as opposed to having to push with a hand like KJ and letting something like A-2 call when you have worse than a 50% chance and the best that can happen is you double. Not to mention the likely 750 dead chips in the pot means you are getting. You cant sit around with 5xBB and hope for a better hand than AQ.