Still mentally turning this one over

[dalecooper]

I was playing a $33 SnG on Party earlier today. My cards had been unremarkable and I hadn't won a pot by the time the blinds hit 25/50. By then my stack had slimmed down to around 670. There were eight players left.

On the big blind I picked up K8 of clubs. Folds all around. The small blind, having about the same stack as me, hesitates for a couple seconds and then raises it up, to 150 to go. I'm thinking I have a few options: 1. call - the hand is playable, he could be raising with any mediocre hand (probably Ax) and I'll have position on him; good recipe for defending my big blind. 2. re-raise - this feels like a steal from a player that, like me, is starting to worry about his stack size relative to the blinds; and I can maybe get him to lay it down right now, or rep an overpair on the flop. 3. just fold, why get mixed up in this with a soft hand when there's still a lot of game left to play?

Needless to say, being the ever-aggressive guy I am, I re-raised it, making it 300 to go. He hesitated again and then called. Now I'm feeling good about my decision; this is exactly the kind of response I'd expect from someone with maybe a weak ace, or worse.

Flop comes out Q99 with one club. Although it didn't hit me at all, I kind of like it; I just don't think he'd be in this hand with a queen unless maybe he held KQ, and it's very likely (to my way of thinking) that one of his cards is an ace. So really I'm just hoping his other card is not a 9. He checks to me. The pot is 600. I have 370 chips left. If I bet a real amount, I'm pot-committing myself; only a ridiculous underbet would not commit me, and it would look mighty suspicious after I re-raised him. I decide to just bet 300 knowing that if he pushes, I am obviously committed to call. I bet 300, he pushes, I call.

He flips over A9, end of SnG.

Is this a wise, +EV play? I'm referring to the pre-flop re-raise, as well as the flop bet. I make aggressive moves like this a couple times per tournament and usually they don't burn me, but this one went spectacularly off the rails. I feel like it was a good move, it's just bugging me because with the blinds that high I was married to it once I decided to go through with it. It's hard to tell what would have happened if I had just called - maybe nothing, maybe I just would have given him the extra hundred chips and folded on a later street. I also wonder if I had just pushed over his pre-flop raise, if he would have called me. I didn't have too strong a read on him; he seemed like an average player in every respect. Medium aggression, not too loose or too tight.

[vqc]

I dont like this play at all.

You raise off half of ur stack preflop and expect to fold it post flop if u miss?
Your much better off just pushing preflop.

Fold this. U can find muc much easier ways to pick up the 50 chips u just payed in the blinds. Hell You can push 2 cards next hand when ur in the SB (if its folded to u of course) and pick up the blinds there. Its just not worth it here.

[lovemachine]

fold or all-in preflop

[dalecooper]

I dont like this play at all.

You raise off half of ur stack preflop and expect to fold it post flop if u miss?

No, not at all. I raise off half my stack expecting him to read me for a high pocket pair, and then unless the flop hits him square between the eyes - and most of the time it won't - he'll back off to my aggression on the flop. Put it this way: this is a probable steal from the small blind just as the big blind has become big enough to mean something to him. He probably has a hand, but not a great hand. It's not a big pair or AK, most of the time. If you agree with that logic, I have fold equity on my re-raise alone (he won't always call it), and serious fold equity on the flop. Assuming my read on his hand is correct, the majority of flops will not help him.

Basically I have almost no intention of folding this hand post-flop. The only reason I don't push is because I think it represents strength to a thinking player that I *only* re-raised him 150, instead of pushing; and in the long run it's probably more profitable to give him a chance to call that raise, miss the flop, and fold to my bet on the flop. But I'd have to know some actual percentages to back up that claim. If I was going to be out of position after the flop I'd be more likely to push pre-flop and not worry about it.

*If* I'm going to fold this hand, it would be to him re-raising me all-in pre-flop. Once I see a flop, there's about a 90% chance I'm pushing. This is pretty much a stop-and-go.

Fold this. U can find muc much easier ways to pick up the 50 chips u just payed in the blinds. Hell You can push 2 cards next hand when ur in the SB (if its folded to u of course) and pick up the blinds there. Its just not worth it here.

This is about more than 50 chips though. I'm sending a clear message to someone acting before me that my blind isn't for sale. I'm sending a message to the rest of the table that raising when I have money in the pot is dangerous. And in the majority of scenarios I either win 225 chips (his raise + the blinds, if he folds) or 375 chips (his raise + call of my raise plus the blinds, if he calls and then folds the flop). There's really a lot of chips at stake in this hand; it's only a question of how likely it is that I can get them.

[Fortune 500]

I'm torn. You're kinda short stacked here, so really, how much blind defense will you be doing from here on out. Any significant raise at any point pretty much commits you, so I'm not sure I totally like the concept of defending your blinds here.

That said, I actually like the way you thought it through. You win that IF it doesn't hit him. It just happened. All in all, I give the play a B+ great in theory, if not so much in execution.

[dalecooper]

fold or all-in preflop

Why? On this particular hand, the way it went down, it clearly would have been a better move & he probably would have folded... probably. But that's a very results-oriented way of looking at things. What's the case for push/fold? With a push your pre-flop fold equity is higher, but you will also tend to get called by stronger hands, if you get called.

With a modest re-raise, I can represent the same strength; potentially make more chips if he calls and then folds on the flop, which I believe is often what will happen; and even give myself the chance to get away from the hand if he happens to be raising into me with a monster, and pushes all in immediately after I re-raise him. I can't help but think that there are a lot of advantages to not just shoving all in here. It's a play with a lot of associated risk though. The safest option is folding, but I don't like giving up my big blind every time the button or small blind raises.

[dalecooper]

I'm torn. You're kinda short stacked here, so really, how much blind defense will you be doing from here on out. Any significant raise at any point pretty much commits you, so I'm not sure I totally like the concept of defending your blinds here.

I don't defend my blinds earlier in the game though. When they're small relative to my stack and the table is full, I don't care about my blinds. Raises are usually legitimate and I won't miss 15 chips. Later on it becomes a lot more important, both for image (the better players that are still alive start paying attention to their opponents) and for the health of my stack.

[Aquinas]

If I raised u with a9 from sb and u pushed and u are shortstacked, I call. So even a reraise allin doesnt have much fold equity. I think I'd fold this one if I were u. He could easily b holding KT or KJ or KQ, and then u are in trouble. In fact I'd like ur play better with something like 76s.
On the other hand I called an allin for all my chips(well almost) with T9s in the last SNG i was in because I was sure the SB was pushing any 2, and I felt that a win here would give me a decent shot at 1st (4 players left and blinds 300 my stack size after posting 700 sb was pushing 900 chips--I was right btw he had 83o).
But if u do think this fellow is pushing with basically any two, reraise allin and force him to fold. If u do put him on an ace, the kind of move u were trying to pull is high variance. I'd fold for sure then.