Bubble move

[stranglin]

I wanted to know whether this is the right play. This is a 150 player tournament where top 20 gets paid. It is roughly a 5 hour tournament at casino arizona. Anyhow, we're down to 21 players left, and the guy to my left has been telling the table how he's the bubble king...always finished right out of the money. Blinds are 700-1500, I'm short-medium stacked and he's one of two short stacks. At the time of the move, I have 7000 in chips and he's got 4600. I'm SB, he's BB, and it's folded around to me. I push all in.

At this point, I would argue that it doesn't really matter what two cards either of us have. If he calls and loses, he's out and gets nothing. If he calls and wins, he doubles up. I believe that the reward is not worth the risk, but you can argue the same about my move. For completeness sake, I have 47o and he's got AQo. Needless to say, he calls. He then proceeds to flop trip aces and rivers quads.

Thoughts?

[stranglin]

Let me append what I said. I figured he couldn't call with anything less than queens.

This tournament is $130 buyin, no rebuys. This is a twice a week tournament. First gets 5500. I think second gets 3600...I can't recall. #11-#20 all get their buy-in back, and that's it.

[drmcboy]

it seems to me your line is based on the assumption he wants to get to the money, and that he'll sacrifice his chance to win to get there. Maybe that was reasonable based on the chat, I dunno. But clearly if he wants to win, he's going to call with AQ since your range to push there includes TONS of hands he is ahead of, and even more that he can flip against.

[chardrian]

I figured he couldn't call with anything less than queens.

I think your figuring was wrong. He's about to be blinded out. AQ is a huge hand when you are just waiting for a hand to push with. I don't think your push was bad btw - but his call was also the right play.

[konahead]

I'd say that pushing there with 47o is crazy given that you're in the money as soon as 1 player goes out. Especially since you've just finished paying the blinds - you get to see 8 more hands free.

I'd be camping until ITM unless I picked up a monster. Then get aggressive once ITM.

[stranglin]

it seems to me your line is based on the assumption he wants to get to the money, and that he'll sacrifice his chance to win to get there.

drmcboy, roughly what percentage of the people do you play are playing for first and are willing to walk away with zero to get there? I suppose my mistake here is that most people would play like me (very common rookie mistake). However, I always thought that this stage of the tournament is the best spot to steal. Everyone is holding on for dear life trying to get ITM. Am I mistaken?

Konahead, there are 21 people left, so it's 3 tables with 7 players each. I only get to see five free hands per round. However, this thought did not once enter my mind while playing.

Does anyone else have any opinions? This was a very critical hand for me, and I'd like to know if it's a mistake. This situation may come up again, and I'd like to be prepared for it.

[drmcboy]

without a read I don't think it is safe to just assume people are camping for the money. The thing is you never know what someone's BR is. The guy to your right at the 200 Sunday tourney on PS may have won a satellite to get there and is dying to cash, and the guy on your left may buy in every week. I see people in, for example, the 10 rebuy on PS that I played with back in the day at $15 SnGs, right next to people I played with last month in $200 SNGs. Maybe the 15ers have moved up, maybe it's there first time this deep in a big tourney and they are so freaked out they'll fold JJ on the button to open.

It's a worthless number, but I'd say 70% of opps play tighter as the bubble comes. OTOH, usually around that same 70 % has a medium to short stack by the time the bubble comes around, so they may be tight SS whether or not it's the bubble.

I'd also point out that opp said he was the king of going out right on the bubble... that probably means he's gambooling a lot.

Finally... I think you were pretty unlucky here to run into a big hand. AT, KJ, 44 he probably folds, AQ just a little too good. The blinds are a huge % of your stack, I like the play. End of the day you were only, what, 65/35 dog? The chance of you getting a fold here is much better than you being called AND being dominated, I think it's +EV.

[chardrian]

I'd be camping until ITM unless I picked up a monster. Then get aggressive once ITM.

This is how most people on the bubble play - and this is why stranglin's play was not bad.

stranglin - you didn't give us enough detail to give you a definitive answer as to whether or not your push was wise. If BB was loose and calling with mediocre hands then the argument that you should have just folded is much stronger. With what you gave us, it was fine. You had more chips than the guy who called making the decision that much tougher for him - lose and he's bubble boy. The vast majority of the time someone is not going to have a monster hand and will fold. With only 3xBB AQ is a monster - he had to call, it was bad luck, you were actually lucky he didn't have u more dominated.

[konahead]

I only say bad move because there's ONE player to go for the money. I agree you need to get aggressive, but I think to push 47o with one to go is crazy. He just paid the blinds - everyone's playing tight - good chance it will be folded around to him on the button or CO with something a little better than 47o. I'm all for aggression on the bubble, but I think between the people to go for ITM (1) and the cards, it's not a good move.

[ilikeaces86]

All in, and its not even close.

[konahead]

So the proper move is to push all-in on the SB no matter your cards because the BB is short stacked? Or the combo of BB short stacked and knowing everyone wants to get ITM (1 to go)? I'm assuming you wouldn't do it to a big stack.

Just trying to understand the rationale/circumstances where this is always an auto-push. I have a hard time stealing with cards that bad....

[stranglin]

Because he's short stacked, has enough for 2 more orbits, and next guy out is bubble boy. I can't do it to a big stack because then I'd risk being the bubble.

Picture yourself in his position. No one likes being the bubble. All you have to do is wait for the next guy to bust, and you're in the money. With no one else in, you're calling 3100 for a chance to win 4600. If you win the hand, you've got breathing room, and have an outside chance of making final table. If you lose, it's the long walk. Now, Konahead, what hands would you call with? Also, I didn't clarify earlier, but #11-#20 get their buyin back. So it doesn't matter if you finish #20 or #11.

[konahead]

Yeah, I understand the thinking behind it - I just have a really hard time hitting the all-in button with 47o. I could do it with most anything better - down to 86s or T7o. I just really struggle with offsuit 3 gappers below 10. So I don't think I would have done it - but ballsy push.