KQs, do i call half my stack getting 2:1 ?

[gabe]

no read. 13 left, top 9 make FT. only hand i have showdown recently is AQo when i doubled vs QJ.
it's a good price for a flip....

PokerStars No-Limit Hold'em Tourney, Big Blind is t8000 (6 handed) FTR converter on zerodivide.cx

CO (t77624)
Button (t324299)
SB (t76412)
BB (t242038)
UTG (t103213)
Hero (t153322)

Preflop: Hero is MP with K, Q.
1 fold, Hero raises to t24000, 2 folds, SB raises to t76012, 1 fold, 52000 more for hero to call.......

[a500lbgorilla]

I'd like to gamb0l here.

-'rilla

[Andy Holt]

It's really close, because consider the possibility that he's just trying to resteal from someone who he views as a tight player...

But then again, it's half your stack and you could be dominated...

Neither choice is that bad. :Kc: :Qc: is a little risky at this point though.

I would call, in the hopes of busting this guy and giving yourself a shot to bring it all home.

[chardrian]

I find it very very difficult to fold there.

[Spook]

I say that without a read (how that happend with only 13 left, dunno) you are behind here roughly 70% of the time. Am I willing to risk trading places with him at this point in the tourney? Probably.

[Gareth]

I don't think I could fold here - odds slightly better than 2-1.

Yeah - defo CALL

[Alibi]

I agree with a call.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

I disagree, mostly because I like too...

You're too easily dominated by the range of hands someone would come over the top of you with in a situation like this. Would someone risk their entire tournament on a re-steal from someone that has shown strength and previously only shown down quality hands? I understand the arguments for calling, but saying this is a definite call is a bit much IMO. You can't just consider the odds your getting when making this call. You have to consider likely impacts the various outcomes and also the table texture. Consider that if you fold you will have ~130,000 which is actually not much worse than what you initially had and still gives you plenty to wait for better spots to put your money in. If you call and lose, you will have ~75,000 and you start have to worry about doubling up which is compounded by the shorthanded play. If you call and win it will put you around 240,000 and in great position respective to the other stacks and a final table is likely.

It is a call that can potentially make you or break you so the price you're getting shouldn't be the only factor you consider. If the table is being very passive and people have been mostly playing to survive until the final table then I would fold. You can make up the deficit in 1.5 steals. If the big stacks are applying a lot of pressure and people have been showing a willingness to play back then I would call and take the shot at accumulating some chips.

[DaNutsInYoEye]

Sorry... I forgot that Gabe only gets this far in $1 and $3 tournies. That changes my analysis to a call without hesitation.

[zenbitz]

I know nutz is just being funny, but I think that's backwards. I think the better the player, the more likely he is making a move with a marginal holding here. A bad player is going call or fold with something marginal, and push a good hand.

What I don't like about the call is that you are almost never ahead, unless the guy is really laggy (pushing JQs or worse). The best you can hope for is the short end of a coinflip against a low pair... or maybe AJ or other single overcard.

I do think that most likely he has a mid-pair, and you are flipping... but I think the odds are pretty good you are dominated by AQ/AK, so if the guy was even typically tight, I think I fold.

One unmentioned (I think) advantage of calling is that if you fold, you look like you were stealing with junk, which probably decreases your folding eq in the future.

Nice play by him, BTW.

[face]

You said you showed down AQ. How active were you besides that? Because I think this call is so marginal, I think you should fold if you haven't played a hand in awhile, and call if you've stolen 1 or two blinds/orbit.

[Chicago_Kid]

It looks tempting, but I would fold there. He's putting his life on the line, and did so over a live BB w/ a big stack. Seems like a very risky squeeze play/steal of him, so he probably has you in a race at best.

[chardrian]

Well my last post got deleted. So short(er) version.

SB has less than 10xBB and blinds are coming around super fast in a 6 handed game. So SB will make this move with a ton of hands.

Which means... this is definitely a math/pot odds hand (no fun at all).

52 k into a pot of over 104k = 2 to 1. He has to call if it's a coin flip.

It is most likely close to a coin flip.

Even if he is behind it is most likely behind to AK or AQ which still is only about a 70/30 dog. With the pot odds in this hand he hasn't really made that horrendous of a call even if he knew he was a 70/30 dog.

Add this all up and it = call (IMO).

[konahead]

Any idea what your Q is? I'd take that into consideration too. If over 1, I'd fold, if under 1, probably call.

Also, looks like he wanted the BB out of the hand and get heads-up, so I'd put him on a mid-pocket pair, probably 88-JJ.

But you're right - tough decision...