Moving Up? - A different spin...

[kingnat]

From the stuff I've read here, it sounds like have 20 buy-ins for the $10+1 is the necessary bankroll for moving up. I'm almost there, but I'm concerned that my exploding roll is just an effect of positive variance.

I swore I would never put up stats based on a minute sample size.. but this should show the swing a bit...

Through only 31 tourneys, I have 45% ITM and 56% ROI, with 9 1st, 3 2nd and 2 3rds... building a $50 roll to around $150.

I just signed up a friend through an email.. which artificially(?) pumped my BR to $200... meaning I could be knocking on $220, possibly after my next SnG.

I feel like I'm playing solid poker, but should I wait a bit before moving up to get a better feel for my true ROI?... or should I push on ahead because (as stated here) the $10 games are just as soft as the $5 AND the 20% rake at PP is like 5 years in a federal "pound-me-in-the-ass" prison...

Thanks for the feedback.. and sorry for posting meaningless-small-N stats

[nogenius]

Great progress so far.

Here's what I would do:

As you've mentioned, you're on a bit of a heater. Your BR is strong enough that if you feel confident, you can step up and play a couple of $10 + 1's.

If you happen to drop a couple of buy-ins, it's not a problem as long as you are willing to drop back down to the $5 + 0.50's (for example if your BR drops below $180 or so).

[JeffreyGB]

I like nogenius's suggestion, and was about to make it myself.

That said, I've always been excessively cautious with my BR. It wasn't until recently that I moved up to the 109s, despite having 30+ buyins (at the time). In one respect, by waiting, you're shooting yourself in the foot. On the other hand, you avoid chopping off a leg. In the end, I think it depends on what you feel comfortable with. You might also think about playing in them only after winning (1st) a $5.50 for a while. Then even if you bust out last, you're turning a profit.

[donkbee]

You might also think about playing in them only after winning (1st) a $5.50 for a while. Then even if you bust out last, you're turning a profit.

I really like this suggestion. I have been wondering similar things regarding whether or not I should move up to the 10s too. After around 20 SnGs, I have absurd ITM and ROI stats, 60% and 140%. I'm waiting and wondering when these numbers will plummet, lol. I dread the losing streak that's in my near future. As a result, I'm really afraid to move up. I do, however, have more than enough of a bankroll to move up. Your suggestion should ease me into it risk-free, especially if they are, like everyone says, extremely similar to the $5 ones.

[JeffreyGB]

Your suggestion should ease me into it risk-free, especially if they are, like everyone says, extremely similar to the $5 ones.

It's how I approached the 109s initially (or rather how I intended to approach them, before I hit a string of 7 3rds in my 55s). I finally was talked in to giving it a shot and haven't looked back since (showing similar stats to yours - 85% ITM and 160% ROI, LOL). Still, if I move too far away from my current upswing, I'll probably buffer my losses with some play at the 55s, just to ensure my headspace.

And yes, the play at the 11s should be very close to the play at the 5.5s. I honestly don't remember seeing a tremendous jump in skill level at any point in my progression. Once you move beyond the 33s, people get a lot more aggressive, but they don't, as a whole, get a lot better about starting hand selection (and in some cases are just as bad about playing against the odds too).

[Trikflow77]

im sorry but 20 buy ins isnt enough........even at the 10's i want 30+ buy ins. At the 55-109's i have 20 buy in swings bi-weekely if i had that kind of roll id be bust.

[JeffreyGB]

im sorry but 20 buy ins isnt enough........even at the 10's i want 30+ buy ins. At the 55-109's i have 20 buy in swings bi-weekely if i had that kind of roll id be bust.

I'm curious, trik, where do you play? So many others here recommend 20 buyins that I find it very intriguing to hear you pushing for 30-100. I think it's a very welcome balance.

[kingnat]

In one respect, by waiting, you're shooting yourself in the foot. On the other hand, you avoid chopping off a leg. In the end, I think it depends on what you feel comfortable with.

Hmm... I feel.. more comfortable shooting myself in the foot..?... is that possible?

I think this quote will become my sig, it's not often you get such advice.

You might also think about playing in them only after winning (1st) a $5.50 for a while. Then even if you bust out last, you're turning a profit.

Maybe I haven't had enough coffee this morning.. but I've read through the above about 10 times, and I'm not sure what it means. Sorry I'm slow...

Thanks for all the input guys. Much appreciated.

I think nogenius' method sounds practical... and would give me a nice shot at jumping into the $10 games with a clear and firm definition of what I will do if/when my BR drops down to $180.

[donkbee]

You might also think about playing in them only after winning (1st) a $5.50 for a while. Then even if you bust out last, you're turning a profit.

Maybe I haven't had enough coffee this morning.. but I've read through the above about 10 times, and I'm not sure what it means. Sorry I'm slow...

He's suggesting that you stick with the 5.50s for a while but every time you place first place, you play one 11. That way, even if you lose OTM in the $11 buyin, you still make money overall because you won first place in the $5.50 tourney. I'm definitely gonna use the idea, I think it's a really good way to get a taste for the 11s at very low risk to the bankroll.

[kingnat]

You might also think about playing in them only after winning (1st) a $5.50 for a while. Then even if you bust out last, you're turning a profit.

Maybe I haven't had enough coffee this morning.. but I've read through the above about 10 times, and I'm not sure what it means. Sorry I'm slow...

He's suggesting that you stick with the 5.50s for a while but every time you place first place, you play one 11. That way, even if you lose OTM in the $11 buyin, you still make money overall because you won first place in the $5.50 tourney. I'm definitely gonna use the idea, I think it's a really good way to get a taste for the 11s at very low risk to the bankroll.

Ah... that does make sense.. and I'm a moron who can't read. Thanks for the tip Jeffrey and for the assist courtie..

I think I'll try this as well.

[Trikflow77]

im sorry but 20 buy ins isnt enough........even at the 10's i want 30+ buy ins. At the 55-109's i have 20 buy in swings bi-weekely if i had that kind of roll id be bust.

I'm curious, trik, where do you play? So many others here recommend 20 buyins that I find it very intriguing to hear you pushing for 30-100. I think it's a very welcome balance.

I play at party.........1000 chippers have more variance.......

[donkbee]

I dread the losing streak that's in my near future.

i must've jinxed myself. 5 in a row OTM and counting. it's hard to tell what you're doing wrong when you're making terrible plays while getting really bad cards at the same time. in the last one i played, by the time the blinds were 75/150, i was 8% seeing the flop.

i've read all the posts about bad runs and i know that my 5 is nothing so far. just felt the need to complain and be frustrated.

guess no 11s anytime soon ... lol.

[Khabbi]

I am building my roll the same way as you are courtibee. I started with $50 and have built to $170 three times now:

50 -> 130 -> 90 -> 150 -> 100 -> 170 -> 120 -> 130 -> 170 -> 140 -> 170

I hope my current swing continues. When you are running good, you feel that you have everything mastered and that you can't possibly make any mistakes. Then for some unknown reason, your roll starts dropping.

I think it's something that us newer players will have to get used to and learn to control as we try to move up. I have found that my mood more than anything will contribute to downswings. If I don't feel like poker, I sit that one out and wait until the next day.

I play best and most consistently when I feel like playing a strong, patient game.

Jeffrey, I like your advice to try to move up after a win at your current level. It would definately make an OTM finish sting a lot less. A lot of your strategies seem very conservative, but seem that they would easily reduce the variance that would get us newer players a little flustered.

[donkbee]

I play best and most consistently when I feel like playing a strong, patient game.

i'm not positive, but i think this is where i've been faltering slightly. not being as patient as i should be, and also not paying full attention to the game. today i accidently called a 9xbb preflop raise with pocket 8s because i had a big stack and i THOUGHT i was calling a short stack going all in. when i called and it was my turn, i was like, wtf? i looked at his stack and he still had 2000 chips. i was like, "ah fuck" lol. yeah stuff like that. gotta start focusing better.

[JeffreyGB]

A lot of your strategies seem very conservative, but seem that they would easily reduce the variance that would get us newer players a little flustered.

I've always been very conservative with my BR. There was no other way to be when I was starting out with only $25. Even now though, I'd rather win a bit less than dramatically increase my loss potential.

[Staple Gun]

I play best and most consistently when I feel like playing a strong, patient game.

i'm not positive, but i think this is where i've been faltering slightly. not being as patient as i should be, and also not paying full attention to the game. today i accidently called a 9xbb preflop raise with pocket 8s because i had a big stack and i THOUGHT i was calling a short stack going all in. when i called and it was my turn, i was like, wtf? i looked at his stack and he still had 2000 chips. i was like, "ah fuck" lol. yeah stuff like that. gotta start focusing better.

I think hes talking more about not calling a raise early on with KQs out of position, or calling an all-in with 10-10 when you know your beat. But yea, paying attention helps too

Anyways, it looks like you have a pretty good understanding of bankroll management for how much you have played. Definetly take a shot at the $11's sometime assuming you have at least 15x or more, and you'll break through eventually. If you have a solid game and keep looking to improve I can assure you that you will have success as long as you stay focused and keep practicing good BR management.